348
FXAK68 PAFC 041305
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
505 AM AKDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A pattern change is underway as the upper level ridge that brought
nice weather the past few days moves slowly east, only to be
replaced by broad southwesterly flow and exposure to waves of
energy from the broad trough out west. Light rain has already
moved into the northern Susitna Valley, mainly due to upslope
flow. More widespread rain is expected overnight and early
Saturday morning as a stronger shortwave moves over the area
quickly from southwest to northeast. Most of the rain should be
out of the population centers by Saturday afternoon, but some
lingering rain is expected in the upslope areas of the Mat-Su
Valleys and along the eastern Sound.

For Sunday and Monday, another shortwave and surface low will move
from Kodiak into the north Gulf with light rain spreading inland
Sunday evening and continuing through Monday morning. As one can
expect for September, the long term remains active into next week,
but there will be 1-3 day breaks between storms.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

** Special Weather Statement remains in effect for elevated water
 levels during high tide this morning and Saturday morning for the
 Kuskokwim Delta coast.

A front extending off a vertically stacked low in the
northwestern Bering Sea continues working its way across Southwest
Alaska today. A band of rain along the front stretches across
Southwest Alaska and south along the Alaska Peninsula through this
afternoon. As the front weakens and exits to the east late this
evening, rain is expected to taper off. Gusty southerly winds were
observed overnight along the southern Alaska Peninsula. These
winds are expected to diminish through the early morning hours
this morning. Winds will likely remain elevated along the Pribilof
Islands, with gusts 20 to 25 mph at times, as several shortwaves
traverse the southern edge of the low. A couple of weaker systems
will bring rounds of rain and somewhat elevated winds to the
Eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula through this
weekend into early next week.

Weather across Southwest AK this weekend looks a bit messier,
with weak and disorganized upper level short-waves streaming in
off the Bering Sea. This will lead to mostly cloudy skies,
localized areas of fog, and chances for rain. Due to the weak
forcing and model spread in track of specific features, it is hard
to nail down when and where the best chances of rain will be.
Temperatures will be very seasonable for this time of year, with
lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s for nearly the entire region
(Southwest AK, the Aleutians and Pribilof Islands).

KM/SEB

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

A shortwave moves across Southwest Sunday night and through Southcentral
early next week. It brings moderate rainfall to the the Kenai
Peninsula and mountainous areas of Southcentral.  As this low
digs into the Gulf of Alaska, locally heavy rainfall is possible
in the Prince William Sound region Monday into Wednesday. Current
guidance on the timing and exact location of the low crossing the
state remains low but confidence remains high of a change to an
overall wet pattern for most of Southcentral next week. Persistent
southwesterly flow behind this low will continue to bring weak
fronts through Southwest Alaska into the middle of next week.

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds are expected through the
day. A Turnagain wind will come in this evening and peak early
tomorrow morning with gusts around 25kts. Light rain is expected
late tonight into early Saturday morning. MVFR is possible
tomorrow morning as things saturate.

&&


$$