825
FXAK68 PAFC 161330
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
530 AM AKDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The first of several shortwaves made its way north up Cook Inlet
overnight, and brought rainfall with it. As this front moves north
of the area, flow aloft is increasing from the southeast which is
expected to bring cross-barrier winds today and downslope most
of the rain until later in the day for the Kenai Peninsula, and
the evening for Anchorage and northward.

High pressure situated along the coast and Copper River Basin
will shift eastward towards Canada as the shortwaves move through.
This will produce a tighter pressure gradient extending along the
eastern Kenai Peninsula and eastern Turnagain Arm Area. As a
result, southeasterly winds becoming increasingly gusty through
the late morning and afternoon. Strongest winds are expected
this afternoon and evening. Areas along the Hillside may see wind
gusts up to 60-65 mph this evening. Gusty winds are also expected
in for Palmer, with gusts to 40 mph possible this afternoon/evening.

On Monday, the upper level flow will turn more southwesterly due
to the main upper level low pushing into Southwest Alaska. This
will bring more rainfall especially to the Susitna and Matanuska
Valleys and probably Anchorage and the northern Kenai Peninsula
as well. The gusty gap winds will likely persist through Monday as
this pattern is favorable for them for Turnagain Arm, Knik River
Valley an along the Copper River.

KM/EZ

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Sunday through Wednesday)...

An upper-level low continues northward across the Alaska Peninsula
Sunday, with several shortwaves rotating around the circulation
bringing widespread rain to much of Southwest Alaska. Gusty
southerly winds will also persist across portions of Bristol Bay
before gradually diminishing. By Sunday night into Monday, the
upper low moves over the Southwest mainland, allowing rain showers
to continue wrapping around the circulation. Cooler temperatures
accompanying the system, resulting in a more typical cool and wet
August pattern across Southwest Alaska.

Meanwhile, unsettled conditions continue across the Aleutian
Islands as anther upper-level low moves southeastward across the
southern Bering Monday. Rain and gusty winds spread eastward
along the Aleutian chain and toward the AKPEN Monday into Tuesday
as the system progresses eastward.

By Tuesday into Wednesday, the upper-level pattern remains
active as the second low tracks toward the Alaska Peninsula and
Southwest Alaska. Guidance differs somewhat on the exact position
and strength of the low by Wednesday, but generally supports
continued unsettled conditions across the eastern Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula, with increasing chances for precipitation
spreading toward Southwest Alaska.

LM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

By Wednesday morning, broad troughing is anticipated across
mainland Alaska with an upper level low sitting at the base of the
trough over the AKPen. This low looks to move across the Gulf
Wednesday and into the Alaska Panhandle on Thursday. There is
general agreement at least a weak surface low will develop in the
southwestern Gulf by Wednesday morning ahead of the upper low and
move into the northern Gulf Coast around Prince William Sound
Wednesday night into Thursday. This will bring more precipitation
(possibly heavy) for the northern Gulf Coast and eastern Kodiak
Island. Depending on the strength of the coastal ridge, offshore
winds in the Gulf and southeasterly gap winds in Southcentral
(Turnagain, Knik, Copper River) may also increase on Wednesday.
Some light precipitation may spill over into interior locations of
Southcentral and Southwest, with highest chances around higher
terrain. Otherwise, mostly overcast skies and cooler temperatures
persist on Wednesday. By Thursday morning, after the low reaches
shore, winds should weaken and precipitation should become
lighter.

Behind the low, troughing persists as shortwaves continue to move
through Southwest and the northern AKPen into Southcentral and
the Gulf. Though details are still uncertain, this general pattern
looks to maintain cooler temperatures and mostly cloudy skies
with occasional rain through the end of the week. Depending on
wave positioning, rainfall is possible across the Bering and
Aleutians into the AKPen and Kodiak Island as well. One other
detail that will be watched is how models continue to resolve a
potential stronger low from Siberia moving into the Seward
Peninsula next Friday-Saturday, which could bring another round
of heavier rainfall for Southwest and stronger winds across the
Bering. Details will become more clear in the coming days.

-PA

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Light rain showers and MVFR ceilings remain possible this
morning as a frontal system pushes through the region. Showers
are expected to diminish by mid-morning as downslope flow develops
off the Chugach. By early afternoon, Turnagain Arm winds will
become active, bringing southeasterly gusts to 30 kts through the
overnight hours. The challenge with the winds is that these strong
southeasterly surface winds may be in-and-out during the afternoon
and evening hours causing low level wind shear to come and go
with changes in surface wind direction and strength.

&&


$$