513
FXAK68 PAFC 040452
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
752 PM AKST Tue Nov 3 2026

.Update to the Aviation Discussion 06Z...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 429 PM AKST Tue Nov 3 2026/

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3)...

The active weather pattern continues across the southern half of
Southcentral as a strong high-end gale to storm-force front
associated with a strengthening surface low southeast of Kodiak
Island barrels toward the coast. Steady rain and gusty easterly
winds are overspreading the coastline of Southcentral this
afternoon with plenty of moisture being advected out ahead of the
front, wringing out along the coastal mountains.

As this low deepens and pushed the front closer to the coast this
evening, a barrier jet will form along the front as it approaches
the coast, resulting in a larger corridor of storm-force winds
south of the Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound east to
Kayak Island. Meanwhile, a strong cross-barrier flow, combined
with a dry northerly flow near the surface, will keep most areas
in the lee of the mountains dry, including most of the western
Kenai Peninsula up through the Mat-Su.

By Wednesday morning, the surface low takes a northwesterly turn
moving through Kennedy Entrance and to the AKPen while quickly
weakening. Its front lifts inland over Southcentral, allowing for
some precipitation to finally make it over the coastal mountains
as the cross-barrier flow also weakens. With warm air aloft riding
overtop the colder air near the surface along the lee of the
mountains, any precipitation that does fall from Kenai north to
Talkeetna could fall as a brief period of a wintry mix, including
freezing rain. For locations such as Kenai, Anchorage, and Palmer-
Wasilla, the continued northerly wind near the surface should keep
temperatures right around freezing and limit any freezing rain to
at most a trace (i.e. freezing sprinkles) with no expected
impact. From Willow north to Talkeetna and west to Skwentna,
surface temperatures at or slight below freezing will likely
linger, allowing for a better chance for pockets of freezing rain
to produce a light glaze of ice by early Wednesday morning.

Temperatures are then expected to warm back up to values similar
to today across the region for Wednesday. An upper-level
shortwave and secondary weak surface low east of Kodiak Island
will allow showers to persist across the Southcentral coast with a
few scattered showers moving over interior portions of
Southcentral in the afternoon as the upper-level wave lifts
north.

By Thursday, the flow aloft shifts from the southeast to the
northeast as both the suite of deterministic and probabilistic
models are leaning to the development of another strong area of
low pressure moving from the North Pacific to the northeastern
Gulf of Alaska for Friday morning. This track is likely to keep
the strongest winds and heaviest precipitation over the open and
coastal waters of the Gulf and away from most, if not all,
locations across Southcentral. The GFS, while still the outlier in
terms of a more westward track, does try to eventually bring the
low closer to Middleton Island and its front to Prince William
Sound. That said, while a chance (20-30%) of precipitation and
strong easterly winds as far west as Prince William Sound cannot
be ruled out, the forecast is weighted toward the Canadian/ECMWF
solutions.

-TM

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday afternoon)...

Unsettled weather will persist across Southwest, with widespread
showers and a cooling trend through the remainder of the workweek.
A stalled frontal boundary remains draped over the Southwest this
afternoon, bringing continued orographic showers along the
mainland, particularly across parts of the Western Alaska range
and Kilbuck Mountains. With continued cloud cover and robust
southeasterly flow aloft, high temperatures have run warmer than
initially forecast, reaching the low to mid 40s in many lower
elevation areas. A low currently south of the eastern Aleutians
continues east and phases into a developing low in the western
Gulf this afternoon. This gulf low moves toward Southwest Alaska
tomorrow, phasing with an upper-level trough associated with a
Bering low, which will bring continued showers to the region
Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures should gradually decrease
through the next few days as a cooler airmass moves through the
Bering and into the Southwest. By Friday, a weak area of high
pressure tries to work back along the coast, bringing decreased
chances for precipitation and much cooler temperatures as the flow
shifts more northerly.

As for the Bering and Aleutians, widespread light showers will
continue across the region as a low located southwest of St.
Matthew Island remains mostly stationary through Thursday morning
as it slowly weakens. Along the south side of this low is an
elongated region of gale-force to small-craft winds draped across
the central/western Bering. With cold air from Russia streaming in
on the west side of the low, some light snow showers have been
observed in Shemya this morning, and could resume tomorrow morning
as temperatures cool overnight. Elsewhere across the Aleutians
temperatures should remain too warm for any snow accumulation,
with some flakes mixing in across parts of the western/central
Aleutians through Friday. The low ejects a shortwave trough
through the Bering on Friday, sending westerly gale-force winds
across the western Aleutians.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

A broad upper trough will be established from the eastern Bering
into the eastern Gulf during the long term forecast period. As
such, disturbances and surface lows traversing within the cyclonic
flow will be directed south of much of the Aleutian Chain and
then northeastward into the eastern Gulf. Southwest Alaska will be
the focus for more active weather from Saturday into early next
week, though coastal showers, elevation snow, and periods of gusty
gap winds appear likely for the gulf coast, especially the Prince
William Sound region. Further inland, drier and cooler conditions
remain favorable. Out west, persistent northerly flow will be
common across the Bering with scattered convective showers
possible as well as elevated gap winds through the Aleutian Chain.

-BL

AVIATION...

PANC...VFR expected. Northerly winds could be gusty to around 20
kt until Wednesday morning around 15Z. Then, winds should remain
light and northerly until Thursday morning. There is a 20 to 30
percent chance for a brief, cold wintry mix, light sprinkle, or
freezing drizzle between 12Z and 18Z.


&&

$$