133
FXAK68 PAFC 030032
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
432 PM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

Broad, upper-level southwesterly flow promoting extensive cloud
cover across the region and showers along a stalled frontal
boundary in the northern Gulf continues through tonight. The
active pattern progresses on Wednesday as a trough and
accompanying surface low lifting north across the AKPen into the
eastern Bering by Wednesday afternoon looks to bring another round
of rainfall across Kodiak Island, Cook Inlet, and Mat-Su Valley.
The biggest challenge in the forecast remains the eastward extent
of the heaviest precipitation as a ridge in the Gulf builds back
over portions of Southcentral. Periods of light rainfall across
the western Kenai Peninsula, Mat- Su Valley, and Anchorage are
expected with the passage of the front as the low lifts north into
the Bering. While the greatest moisture transport looks to remain
over Southwest Alaska, more widespread rainfall is possible
across the Susitna Valley. Southerly flow will keep the heaviest
rain over the northern Susitna Valley where another inch of rain
with locally higher amounts are possible through Thursday night
as the parent trough moves up towards the Kuskokwim Delta and
begins to pivot to the east. Unsettled weather continues through
Friday as the trough tracks across the region and exits to the
east, bringing additional rounds of light rainfall across much of
Southcentral.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA / BERING SEA / ALEUTIANS
(Monday to Thursday)...

Currently, scattered showers in the inland areas of Southwest
Alaska are tapering off as a bit of ridging builds. The Bering is
a completely different story. The longwave trough pattern is
still present in the Bering. There is a north Pacific low moving
up into the Eastern Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula regions. This low
will bring gusty gale force winds to those regions this afternoon
and Wednesday. Gap winds could even gust to storm force as the
low passes by. Heavy rainfall will also affect these regions with
this low. Due to warm air advection, some instability arises
south of the tip of the Alaska Peninsula. As a result, lightning
is possible between the Fox Islands and the tip of the Alaska
Peninsula Tuesday afternoon. The main front of the low pushes
inland by early Wednesday morning, bringing heavy rains to first
the coastal areas of Southwest, then inland areas by late
Wednesday morning. Gusty southerly winds will also impact the
coastal regions, particularly in Bristol Bay by Dillingham.
Southerly flow is associated with this low, so despite increased
cloud cover and rainfall, temperatures remain on the warmer side
for the Southwest mainland in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Thursday brings a break to the winds and rain in the Eastern
Aleutians as a ridge of high pressure builds in. However, this
may be accompanied by fog as stable conditions set in. The
Southwest mainland will have lingering showers on Thursday that
will slowly clear out by Friday. Behind the ridge is new trouble
for the Bering as a new, larger low moves in behind the ridge.
Gusty gale force winds will affect the Western Aleutians by
Thursday afternoon. There is a chance of storm force winds with
this low as well. Heavy rains will also accompany this low along
the associated front. By Friday morning, the main corridor of gusty
gale force winds and heavy rains will arrive at the Eastern
Aleutians. The winds will be weaker by this point, but once
again, gap winds could have stronger gusts. Due to the size of the
low, the back end of it will bring another round of gale force
winds to the western Aleutians by Friday afternoon. Heavy rain
and gusty winds will begin pushing into the coastline in the
mainland by Friday evening.

-JAR

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Saturday through
Tuesday)...

Windy with heavy rain in the Aleutians Saturday and Sunday,
followed by moderate rain across Southwest and western Mainland
Monday through Tuesday.

Early in the period (Sat-Sun) the European model comes into more
agreement the GFS and Canadian guidance with a stronger cyclone
tracking from the eastern Aleutians to western Alaska, becoming
slightly weaker and dissipating over the central portion of the
State early in the workweek. For the next cyclone, models continue
to agree on its depth and landfall on Alaska`s west coast by
Monday. This system weakens on Wednesday as another system
approaches the Western Aleutians.

Periods of high winds and frequent periods of rain will spread
from the central Aleutians and into western Alaska and across the
Alaska Range as a series of lows pass across the region with
possible gales in the normal gap areas. Southern coastal areas
will see moderate to heavy period of rainfall mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Vicinity showers will remain possible through this evening
along with ceilings around 3,500 ft as a trough of low pressure
lingers across Cook Inlet. Some clearing is possible late tonight;
however, another round of very light rain and lower ceilings
looks to move over the terminal by early Wednesday morning. Any
rain and lower ceilings will likely lift north of the terminal for
Wednesday afternoon. Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds over the
terminal this afternoon will quickly diminish by evening. Light
and variable winds are expected tonight through late Wednesday
morning before winds shift back to the southeast for Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

$$