803
FXAK68 PAFC 161254
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
454 AM AKDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3: Today through Friday)...

A sharp upper level ridge is still centered over Southcentral this
morning, keeping very calm conditions in place for much of the
region aside from areas of mid to upper level cloud cover. Farther
to the southwest, a potent low (for July standards) is now
approaching the AKPen and Kodiak Island from the south. A frontal
axis now extends east of the low right across Kodiak Island and
over the southwestern Gulf. This front and parent low are focusing
a stripe of light to moderate rainfall and easterly winds along
and ahead of the boundary. East to northeast winds across the
western Gulf out to the southern Cook Inlet are mostly staying in
small craft range, but a narrow corridor of gales will soon
develop this morning near the Barren Islands.

For today, the primary weather-maker will be the incoming front as
it heads quickly north towards the Gulf coast, and as the upper
level low rotates up into Southwest. A corridor of light to
moderate rainfall is anticipated to make it up into the southern
Kenai Peninsula and the greater Cook Inlet region by about midday.
However, precipitation is going to struggle to make much progress
inland as the front quickly begins to shear apart while the
better upper level support pivots west into the Kuskokwim Valley.
Steady, light rain could make it as far northeast as Valdez and
Cordova, but any precipitation farther inland will likely stay
much lighter and more showery through this evening. The
combination of the approaching front plus a coastal ridge in place
will also help drive gusty south gap winds through the Turnagain
Arm, Knik Valley and Copper River Basin this afternoon. While the
gradient will initially favor Turnagain Arm winds bending down
Cook Inlet, gusty winds will bend into town as the frontal wave
pushes past by this afternoon. The strongest gusts up to 35 mph or
so are mainly expected on the south and west parts of town.

From Thursday into Friday, another shift in the pattern is on tap
as the aforementioned upper ridge begins to drift towards the
AlCan border and as a large, complex longwave trough sets up out
west. Multiple weak shortwaves will eject from this Bering trough
into Southcentral and attempt to further break down the ridge, but
there remains a large degree of spread for the track and timing of
each smaller wave. The next chance for measurable rain could stem
from a more pronounced trough moving up into the western Gulf on
Thursday night, then potentially up into western parts of
Southcentral on Friday. However, there is still a fair degree of
model spread regarding the track, timing and strength of this
system. Thus, forecast confidence drops off considerably by Friday
morning, with the best shot at widespread rainfall once again
focused towards Kodiak Island based on current indications.

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Friday)...

A round of wetting rains is forecast for portions of Southwest
Alaska on Wednesday. An area of low pressure currently over the
Alaska Peninsula will continue northward across Bristol Bay and
then northeastward into to interior Alaska later this evening. As
this low moves inland of the coast, a swath of small craft
westerly winds will push into Bristol Bay this afternoon. Gusts
ranging from 25 to 35 mph are expected before the low moves
further inland and conditions calm in its wake later tonight.

Another interesting feature that may develop this afternoon is
potential clearing from clouds and rain across the Western Alaska
Range and Kuskokwim Valley. Models have been hinting at drier air
aloft moving into Southwest Alaska with the northward moving low,
which could help to scatter out clouds and lead to instability for
isolated wet thunderstorms. It`s a bit uncertain if and how
conditions will unfold this afternoon, but the area with the
highest likelihood for wet thunderstorms should exist near
Iliamna.

Elsewhere, a low remains nearly stationary over the western
Bering this morning. Its front has stalled over the Pribilof
Islands and will continue to dwindle in strength through the
morning hours. However, the remnants of a tropical system from the
West Pacific is expected to merge with what remains of the front,
just south of the Eastern Aleutians, which will help to
reinvigorate the front on Thursday. More clouds and rainfall can
be expected Thursday into Friday as the renewed front sweeps
across the Bering and Alaska Peninsula and into Southwest Alaska
through Friday. Expect cooler temperatures to persist across the
region with thunderstorm chances dwindling to near zero for the
rest of the week.

-BL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

By Saturday morning, the pattern appears to be lead primarily by
a mature upper-level low pressure system in the Bering Sea, with a
weak ridge of high pressure building in the Gulf of Alaska. The
low will likely be pushing a front across the Aleutians and Bering
Sea, spinning off into an independent weak low pressure system
near Kodiak Island by Sunday morning. Through the late weekend
into the early work week, an unsettled pattern may persist for the
Southcentral and Southwest regions of mainland Alaska, with weak
features spinning in from the anchored low in the western Bering.
The main uncertainty with the Bering low is in regards to timing
the interactions with the surrounding shortwaves/lows and the
speed of its surface front.

-CL

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...A low tracks into the western Gulf today, with a leading
front and upper short-wave lifting northward up Cook Inlet and
across the Kenai Peninsula through the morning. A Turnagain Arm
jet will form ahead of the surface front, but will initially bend
solidly southward into northern Cook Inlet. However, as the front
approaches Anchorage this afternoon, the core of winds will shift
to Fire Island and very near the terminal. Ultimately expect gusty
southeast winds to move into the terminal, but there continues to
be uncertainty in time of arrival and strength. Surface-based
instability should allow some gusty winds during the afternoon
hours, but the strongest winds are expected during the late
afternoon and evening hours. There will likely be a brief period
of light rain midday/early afternoon, but deep southeast flow will
ensure that VFR conditions prevail, though ceilings may drop
below 5000 ft in the evening and overnight hours. Winds diminish
late tonight behind the front.

&&


$$