261
FXAK68 PAFC 090110
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
510 PM AKDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A weak cold front will continue to move through the region today
bringing rain for northern portions of the Copper River Basin and
Gulf of Alaska coast. A weak ridge builds into most of the region
Friday.

Ahead of a cold front passing through Southcentral today, wind
gusts ranged from 35 to 45 mph in the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage
Bowl and the Mat-Su Valley. These southerly to southwesterly wind
gusts will diminish beginning later this evening. Temperatures
ranged from the upper 40s to the upper 50s across the region too
this afternoon; continuing the previous days` warmth early this
October.

Rain showers will continue in the Copper River Basin and north of
Talkeetna into this evening. Amounts through this afternoon have
ranged from a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch; a trend that
will persist into late this evening as the front moves eastward.
Traces amounts are likely in the Prince William Sound and Mat-Su
Valley through this  evening.

Tomorrow, continued unsettled conditions persist for the Copper
River Basin as a weak low moves across this area. Scattered rain
showers and cloudy skies are expected for the Copper River Basin
and Prince William Sound areas for most of tomorrow. Elsewhere,
continued dry and less windy conditions are expected. A ridge
moves into the are Friday leading to widespread continued October
warmth.


&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Saturday night)...

Key messages:

 - Another strong frontal system associated with a Kamchatka low
   will cross the Bering Sea and Aleutians Thursday to Friday.

 - The front will weaken quickly as it reaches the Southwest
   coastline Friday night. Minor storm surge and coastal erosion
   is possible for the Kuskokwim Delta as the front arrives.

 - The extratropical remnants of Typhoon Halong are expected to
   curve north into the Bering Sea this weekend. This will likely
   become a Storm to Hurricane force low as it moves north into
   the Bering.

 - Potential impacts from Halong will be highly dependent on the
   still uncertain low track. Stay tuned for updates as forecast
   confidence improves.

Discussion:

A low moving over the North Slope and Chukchi Sea is continuing
to steadily weaken and drift northeast this afternoon. The low`s
trailing cold front is also continuing to degrade in strength as
it approaches the Alaska Range and northern AKPen. Much of the
remainder of the Bering and Aleutians is now under the influence
of a broad trough moving in behind the front, as west to southwest
winds up to around 25 kts persist across the central and northern
Bering Sea. Scattered showers are moving onshore from the
northern Bering into the Kuskokwim Delta Coast. Water levels along
the Kuskokwim Delta Coast have come down back to more or less to
normal levels as strong onshore winds slowly diminish.

From late tonight into Thursday, a strong low moving across
Kamchatka into the far western Bering will send a high-end Storm
force front into the western Aleutians. Hurricane force gusts will
be possible for a couple hours or so as the strongest
southeasterly winds push past Shemya. However, the front will
begin a steady weakening trend as it continues northeast into the
Bering and moves along the rest of the Aleutian Chain, with winds
diminishing to gale force by the time the corridor of strongest
winds reaches the central/eastern Aleutian Chain and Pribilofs
from Thursday night into Friday morning. The front will continue
to rapidly weaken as it reaches the Southwest coastline from
Friday into Friday night, but southeasterly winds gusting up to 40
to 50 mph will still likely reach into western parts of the
Kuskokwim Delta Friday night before the front truly falls apart.
The overall threat for coastal flooding with this storm system
overall looks considerably lower compared to the system that moved
through yesterday into this morning. However, given the higher
than average astronomical tides, minor coastal flooding and
erosion will still be possible on Friday night, particularly for
the communities of Kwigillingok and Kongiganak.

Attention from there quickly shifts to the expected fate of what
will be the extratropical remnants of Typhoon Halong as the storm
curves north from the North Pacific towards western parts of the
outlook area. Models have come into a bit better agreement for the
track and evolution of the low as it transitions into a powerful
extratropical storm as it crosses the central Aleutians and heads
into the central Bering late Saturday into Saturday night. At this
time, it looks likely for a favorable interaction between
Halong`s remnant center with a strong upper level jet and a
shortwave trough lifting just off to the west heading north into
the western Bering Sea around the same time. Thus, Halong`s
remnants could deepen rapidly into an intense Hurricane force low
as it heads into the central Bering as early as Saturday evening.
There is still some uncertainty regarding how far west the
resulting system will track as it heads into the Bering, but
strong winds up to 50 to 70 kts and seas of 20 to 35 ft or higher
are likely to move near or just north of the central Aleutians and
to the west of the Pribilof Islands as the center heads quickly
north late on Saturday. Additional impacts in terms of winds,
waves and any coastal flood potential out towards the Kuskokwim
Delta will depend on the still somewhat uncertain low track and
intensity. Stay tuned to the forecast over the next few days as we
follow this system and as forecast confidence for this low
improves.

-AS

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Southcentral Alaska will initially see a ridge in the Gulf of
Alaska. Shortwaves from a strong low in the west will take
advantage of a long fetch of moisture from the south. Widespread
rainfall from Kodiak Island to the coast, and even the inner
areas of Southcentral including Anchorage, the Mat-Su Valley,
Western Kenai, and later the Copper River Basin is likely. A
strong front moves in on Monday and reinforces rain chances Monday
morning. The front will also allow for a possible barrier jet
along the coast south of Cordova. Gap winds in the Barrier Island
region are also likely. A weak ridge moves in Monday evening
through Tuesday, which decreases rain chances and wind speeds for
a time. Wednesday is more uncertain, but a front followed by
troughing is possible, which would increase rain chances yet again
as well as wind speeds. Strong winds moving into Prince William
Sound and potentially into Anchorage are possible, but much
uncertainly in this scenario remains.

Southwest Alaska is where most of the action is for this extended
period. Sunday starts off with a powerful low associated with the
remnants of Typhoon Halong moving up the Bering. Confidence has
increased with its strength but uncertainty about its track
remains. The low center is expected to track west of the Pribilof
Islands, staying west of Nunivak Island, and eventually
continuing north to the Chukotka region of Russia, or the Bering
Strait, or even as far east as the Seward Peninsula. A further
east track in the Bering with the center moving closer to Nunivak
Island, however, cannot be ruled out at the moment. If the
eastward track wins out, storm force winds could impact the
Kuskokwim Delta coast, which would cause coastal flooding issues.
However, as of now (2:00 PM 10/8), the westward track is favored
and flooding impacts would be minimal with this solution due to
lower wind speeds and storm surge. The low is expected to quickly
move north, which could limit more serious impacts due to a
lesser duration of the strongest winds in one area. Still, the
situation is evolving and the track of the low will be better
understood in the near future. Whichever solution is correct,
heavy rain and storm force winds are expected in the Pribilof
Islands and the Bering waters.

Monday has a break in active weather as weak ridging builds in
after the powerful low moves out. Lower wind speeds and less rain
chances result from this. Tuesday and Wednesday have more action
as a potentially strong low moves into the Bering. The track and
strength of this low are very uncertain due to a large spread in
model runs. Some kind of gusty winds and rainfall are expected
somewhere in the Aleutians regardless of the real track. Wednesday
looks to see some zonal-like flow as the features move eastward
and dissipate. This would mean lower wind speeds and less
rainfall.

-JAR


&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...The gusty Southeast winds up to 35 kt should begin to
diminish by late afternoon and turn more southerly 10 to 15 kt
by midnight. The winds will continue to slowly diminish overnight
and could switch to a light westerly wind Thursday afternoon. VFR
conditions should prevail through the TAF period, though a brief
ceiling between 3500 and 4500 ft cannot be ruled out in a shower
this afternoon or evening.

&&


$$