311
FXAK68 PAFC 030248
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
548 PM AKST Mon Nov 2 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3)...

An active weather pattern continues through the forecast period.
Showers will continue for Prince William Sound from a weakening
Gulf low will move inland through the overnight hours and finally
dissipate by morning.

Inclement weather follows directly after a strong front, set to
arrive before sunrise on Tuesday. Steady rain will spread north to
the coastline of Southcentral as easterly flow and moisture
transport ahead of the front, mainly across the eastern Kenai
Peninsula and Prince William Sound. A new low develops at the
frontal triple point, then moves quickly northeast towards Kodiak
Island Tuesday evening, helping to enhance the front near and
northeast of the low while also pulling it north closer to the
coast. A barrier jet will form along the front as it approaches
the coast, resulting in a corridor of storm force winds along the
northern Gulf coast, south of the Kenai Peninsula and Prince
William Sound. The formation of the barrier jet is expected slightly
earlier in the day. Easterly winds and rain will also intensify
north of the front along the coast. Meanwhile, strong cross-
barrier flow will keep most areas in the lee of the mountains dry,
including most of the western Kenai Peninsula up through the Mat-
Su.

By early Wednesday, the low will pivot into the northern AK
Peninsula and quickly begin to dissipate, while the front
extending into the northern Gulf also rapidly moves into the
coast and begins to shear apart over the terrain of the Kenai and
Chugach Mountains. Multiple upper level impulses rotating north
out of the Gulf in addition to forcing along the decaying front
could help pull shower activity a bit farther inland through the
day on Wednesday, especially in and around the Cook Inlet region.
The active marine pattern looks to continue into the latter half
of the week, with another strong low approaching the southern Gulf
by late Wednesday night. Probabilistic models are beginning to
show signs of a strong low producing storm force winds later in the
week. Stay tuned for updates!

-SS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday morning)...

Current satellite imagery this afternoon shows a 960 mb low
situated between Adak and Atka beginning to weaken as it becomes
vertically stacked. Cold air wraps around the back side of the
low, creating instability and resulting in a slight chance for
some isolated lightning strikes along the Pacific side of the
Aleutians tonight. Its front has reached the Southwest mainland,
bringing widespread stratiform showers stretching from the
southern AK Peninsula up past Toksook Bay. Precipitation will
fall as rain for lower elevation areas as warm air filters in from
the southeast, with any snowfall confined to areas above 2,000
ft. A triple point low has formed to the south of the AKPen
earlier today and is crossing into the eastern Bering this
afternoon, enhancing precipitation and gale-force southeasterly
winds along the coast. As this feature lifts through tonight,
expect the gusty winds and more widespread showers to diminish by
tomorrow morning.

Moving west, another low remains nearly stationary over the
central/western Bering as it separates from the upper-level jet
to its south. This will keep conditions showery through the Bering
and Aleutians as various shortwaves round the low through the
short-term period. Cold air streams in from eastern Russia behind
this system, helping maintain an elongated fetch of small-craft
to gale-force winds across the southern flank of the low.
Temperatures begin to drop near-freezing across the western
Aleutians tomorrow night, allowing some light snow to mix into
showers from Shemya to Atka by Wednesday morning.

A strong ridge begins to form over Kamchatka on Thursday. This
increases the pressure gradient across the western Bering,
funneling a core of strong westerly winds across the western
Aleutians. Showers also become more widespread as yet another
shortwave trough sweeps through the Western Bering. Meanwhile,
Bristol Bay will remain showery through most of the short-term
period as additional shortwaves from the eastern Bering move over
the area. Temperatures gradually cool over Southwest through
Thursday, though precipitation should remain mostly as rain for
low elevation areas.

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

There is a high likelihood that a broad trough extending over
both the Bering and Gulf of Alaska will consolidate over the North
Pacific/Gulf of Alaska later this weekend. High pressure has
persisted over much of mainland Alaska and this should continue if
not strengthen through the long term forecast period, helping to
keep inland conditions on the dry and cooler side.

Offshore, northerly flow should become increasingly common across
the Bering as a result of the shift in the trough`s axis over the
Gulf of Alaska. The net effect being a higher chance for
convective showers over the Bering along with northerly gap winds
through the Aleutians. Over the Gulf of Alaska, one area of low
pressure and its front will be on the decline as they push into
the Southeast Alaska coast. A second area of low pressure will be
lifting northward from the North Pacific late in the period (Sun),
but models are in moderate agreement that this area of low
pressure will remain mostly confined to the eastern Gulf. The
exception being along the coast from just east of Prince William
Sound to just east of the Copper River Delta on Sunday where
scattered shower chances will be higher.

-BL

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR ceilings and visibilities are expected to persist
through Tuesday evening. While northerly surface winds will also
persist through the period, winds aloft will become southeast and
strengthen to around 25 to 35 kts this evening, increasing the
potential for low level wind shear tonight through Tuesday
afternoon.

&&


$$