565
FXAK68 PAFC 251349
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
549 AM AKDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A broad upper level trough persists across the Bering Sea through
the Gulf of Alaska while higher pressure remains toward the
northeastern portion of the state. Embedded within the trough is a
surface low with showers across the northern gulf. West of the
gulf is a front approaching Kodiak Island that is associated with
an occluded Bering Sea low.

The low over the northern gulf is expected to lift north across
Southcentral today, raising the chances for the precipitation in
the Copper River Basin this afternoon and then the Susitna Valley
later this evening and tonight, as it tracks north to
northwestward to the interior of Alaska. Surface pressure behind
the low will tighten and a coastal ridge will set up this
afternoon. Winds will become gusty through N-S and NW-SE terrain
gaps, especially for the Turnagain Arm, Knik Arm, and Copper
River. There are some slight differences in the models with the
onset timing (by a few hours) of precipitation and winds to
increase today. Gusty winds could linger into tonight before
backing off briefly and returning again Thursday. Guidance
indicates however that the low will have moved out of the area by
Thursday evening with only a few showers lingering over mainly the
higher elevations. Meanwhile, the front from out west will arrive
to Kodiak Island by this evening. The front will continue to move
into the northern gulf coast and soon after the previous low
lifts into the interior, the next wave precipitation will return
to the coastal areas. Rainfall is expected to persist for coast
through the rest of this week, but high pressure will attempt to
build across Southcentral. Weak easterly waves could keep slight
chances for precipitation in the forecast. The coastal ridge also
looks to persist through Thursday and Friday, keeping winds gusty
through the typical N-S and NW-SE gaps. There are some differences
with the models for the wind speed through these gaps.

On Friday, a surface lows will move into the western gulf as its
front lifts along the northern gulf coast. Winds will run parallel
to the front and as it swings across Southcentral, precipitation
chances look to increase again for this weekend.


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday night)...

A broad area of low pressure extends from the central Bering Sea
to the Alaska Peninsula this morning. The low is accompanied by a
front that is slowly pushing east, as rainfall has cleared out of
Cold Bay and the southern Alaska Peninsula and is pushing into
the central portion of the peninsula. A weak trough axis along the
Southwest coast is producing enough lift for a band of isolated
showers, though areas further inland have seen skies mostly clear
out with the slightest of ridging aloft.

Ahead of the Bering Sea front, southeasterly winds increase today
with mixing induced by solar heating afforded by continued breaks
of sun. Southeasterly winds gust as high as 30 mph through the
favored Kamishak Gap today before diminishing again tonight. The
front remains mostly offshore as a triple point low develops south
of the Alaska Peninsula today, keeping steadier rainfall from
intruding into northern Bristol Bay. However, this will not
preclude another round of isolated to scattered shower activity
along and near the Southwest coast, triggered by daytime heating.
Along the Western Alaska Range, another round of shower activity
is forecast this afternoon and evening, with potential for another
round of isolated thunderstorms in virtually the same area as
yesterday supported by similar conditions. Adding to the
favorability for thunderstorms is a shortwave trough over
Southcentral Alaska that will begin to move into the region this
evening, providing additional lift.

Showers become increasingly likely for the Lower Kuskokwim Valley
overnight as the trough tracks into the Interior and potential
increases for more steady, wetting rain. Significant uncertainty
still remains with the track and timing of this easterly wave.
However, the general idea has not changed, with the best
likelihood of rainfall along the northern portions of the
Kuskokwim Valley and Delta. The wave pushes west through the day
on Thursday, keeping temperatures moderated, most likely in the
vicinity of Aniak, before spreading rainfall into the Kuskokwim
Delta Thursday night. Areas to the west of the wave may
see warmer and drier conditions, with offshore flow bringing
warmer air from the Interior. High pressure moves into the
western/central Bering Sea on Thursday with the exit of the low
into the Gulf of Alaska. Northerly flow has already begun to scour
out some of the fog over the western Bering and this more unstable
airmass will spread eastward through Thursday. Beyond that time,
though, high pressure building to the west will allow for more
stable conditions, likely meaning the return of fog to western
portions of the Bering.

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

The overall weather pattern across the Alaska region continues
with little changes through the forecast period. On the upper
level map, a closed low meanders around the Central Gulf of Alaska
with little change in strength into the new week. A number of
shortwaves ripple through the entire forecast area, maintaining
the Gulf low and helping establish a new trough over the Western
Bering by Tuesday. Forecast guidance is mostly carried by GFS and
ECMWF through the beginning of the week, with the Canadian models
deviating most over the Bering towards the end of the forecast.

Showers across the Southern Interior will continue through
Tuesday. Chances of thunderstorms retreat to the Eastern Interior
nearer the Canadian border. A decaying surface low looping over
the Central Gulf extends a front along the Southcentral Coasts
from the Central Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island across to the
Canadian border. Repeated rounds of locally moderate rain and
breezy conditions are expected along coastal mountains. Over the
Far West, an East Asian low and front push across the Aleutians
with locally moderate rain through Monday before curving back into
the North Pacific for Tuesday.

- Kutz

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Turnagain
Arm winds increase this afternoon (00Z-06Z) as a front moves
across the southwest Gulf.


&&


$$