374
FXAK68 PAFC 301337
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
537 AM AKDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An upper-level ridge axis extends from the eastern half of the
Aleutians across Southwest Alaska to the upper Tanana Valley. Weak
elongated shortwaves are moving overtop the ridge, allowing high
and mid level clouds to rotate around the periphery of the ridge
resulting in bands of mid and high level clouds traversing north
to south across Southcentral.

The ridge axis will slowly make its way over Cook Inlet by Friday
morning, stalling over the Kenai Peninsula for Saturday. The
result will be continued warm and dry conditions across
Southcentral into the the weekend. The only change in the forecast
is the potential for more cloud cover, especially mid and high
level clouds, than initially thought given the fact that various
waves will continue move across the interior of the state, overtop
the ridge.

WIth high pressure in place, daytime high temperatures will reach
into the upper 60`s to low 70`s along coastal regions and mid to
upper 70`s further inland. Overnight temperatures will be cooler,
with many areas dropping into the 40`s and few locations in the
Susitna Valley, western Kenai Peninsula, and Copper River Basin
possibly seeing early morning temperatures in the upper 30`s
should skies remain clear overnight.

Chances for low stratus and/or patchy fog will remain over the
next several day for coastal portions of Cook Inlet, Valdez, and
Cordova. Low lying valleys in the Susitna Valley and Copper River
Basin may also see early morning patchy fog.

-TM/KM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Thursday through Sunday)...

Fog and low stratus persists along the Bering side of the Alaska
Peninsula, including Dutch Harbor. Fog will scatter out with
daytime heating but will return to the Bristol Bay region for
Friday morning. The upper level ridge responsible for the fog will
begin to shift eastward today as a new low pressure system
approaches through the southern Bering.

Mostly clear skies continue elsewhere across Southwest. A weather
statement for daytime highs in the 70 to 75 degree range remains
in effect through Friday. Conversely, clear nighttime conditions
will permit lows into the low to mid 40s.


A trough moving over the Aleutians kicks the ridge to over
Southcentral Alaska this evening, lifting rainfall eastward
across Nikolski, Unalaska, and Alaska Peninsula through Friday
afternoon. Rain will reach as far north as the Kuskokwim Delta
before the system dips back south and into the North Pacific
Friday afternoon. Farther to the west, a second low follows the
coast of Kamchatka northward, as a strong theta-e ridge within
the front sweeps across the Aleutian chain Saturday afternoon into
Sunday, the possibility for marine lightning will return to the
central Bering and Aleutians as far east as Adak.



&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Increasingly active weather is expected through the long term
forecast period as the pattern begins to become more progressive.
Warm and dry conditions persist across Southcentral through the
end of the weekend before the upper level ridge begins to depart
east over the Panhandle and western Canada. Farther upstream, a
digging Arctic trough interacting with a robust shortwave emerging
off of Kamchatka on Sunday brings a round of widespread rainfall
and increased winds over the Aleutian Chain and Bering Sea. By
late Sunday into Monday morning, this system overspreads the
Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska with widespread rain and
strong southerly flow through early next week as the Arctic upper
low drops south into western Alaska. Conditions similarly
deteriorate across Kodiak Island and Southcentral Monday into
Tuesday as moist, southwesterly flow allows rainfall to fill in
across most of the region. Models begin to diverge on the overall
progression of the upper low over the Interior and the shortwave
over the Bering by the end of the long term period, although
generally unsettled and showery weather lingering through midweek
continues to look likely regardless of which solution plays out.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&


$$