297
FXAK68 PAFC 172350
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
350 PM AKDT Sun May 17 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Active weather continues across Southcentral Alaska as multiple
waves and fronts move through the region. Rain showers will
continue across the coast through Wednesday as the fronts arrive
and push onshore. Inland areas including Anchorage, the Mat-Su,
Western Kenai will experience downslope drying due to elevated
easterly winds. However, it is possible that light rain showers
could still develop due to ample instability and moisture. The
Copper River Basin is expected to remain mostly dry. Gap winds
such as the Turnagain wind, the Knik wind, and the Copper River
wind are expected through Tuesday as a coastal ridge sets up over
the Chugach Range. The Turnagain wind is expected to bend into
Southern Anchorage due to lower pressure out west. A low will move
into the Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday. The low will trigger gusty gap
winds and moderate precipitation around Kodiak Island Monday
night into Tuesday. The low will track just south of Prince
William Sound by Wednesday. Though this will allow for gusty
easterly winds off the coast of Cordova, it will break down the
coastal ridge over the Chugach Range and allow for winds to calm
down for inland areas. The wet and showery pattern looks to
continue through the work week as more shortwaves move into
Southcentral Alaska.

-JAR

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

A broad, vertically stacked low remains over the Bering this
afternoon, situated a couple hundred nautical miles west of the
Pribilof Islands. Its surface front, occluded and weakening,
continues to slowly push across interior Southwest Alaska with
low clouds and rain across the Kuskokwim Valley.

Multiple shortwaves are rotating around this low as colder air
aloft moves west to east across the Aleutian Chain, resulting in
increased instability and areas of showers. The first of these
waves is moving across the Alaska Peninsula this afternoon, with
rain showers and gusty southwesterly winds from east of Cold Bay
to King Salmon and coastal Bristol Bay. This feature, like the
occluded front, will lift into interior Southwest Alaska through
Monday morning with another round of showers for the Kuskokwim
Valley. Patchy fog may linger along the immediate coast in the
wake of the trough.

A second shortwave will will then track across the Alaska
Peninsula into Southwest Alaska on Monday with a deepening
compact surface low lifting from south of Cold Bay Monday
afternoon to south of Togiak late Monday night. Gusty
southeasterly winds and rain will be on the increase with this
system, with the strongest winds out of the Kamishak Gap and
across the Kuskokwim Valley late in the day. Gale-force winds
will wrap around the low over the coastal waters.

Late Tuesday into Wednesday, the next deepening upper low moves
into the Aleutians with a front reaching the Southwest Coast by
Wednesday evening. While the current low over the Bering is
weakening, general troughing will continue to bring multiple
disturbances across the Aleutians and into Southwest Alaska on an
almost daily basis. Long term model guidance shows little to no
change in the overall pattern, with unsettled weather and rain
chances persisting into the latter half of next week.

-TM/BL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

A broad upper-level trough over the Bering Sea extending into the
Gulf will remain in place through the middle of next week. This
will continue to support unsettled conditions across much of
southern Alaska.

By midweek, the focus shifts farther west as the active Bering Sea
pattern continues. Another low is expected to move off Kamchatka
and track eastward. Model guidance is now in better agreement,
bringing the low across the Aleutian Chain before continuing into
the Gulf of Alaska, remaining south of the mainland. Unsettled
conditions will persist across the Aleutians as this system and
its associated front progress eastward through the end of the
week.

LM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Strong
southeasterly winds are expected continue past midnight, though
the winds will not be as strong as yesterday. These gusty
southeasterly winds will then redevelop again Monday late morning
and persist into the evening.

&&


$$