571
FXAK68 PAFC 300203
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
603 PM AKDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Monday afternoon)...

Key messages:

 - Flood Advisories remain in effect across Mat-Su and in the
   Cordova area. Please use caution in flood areas and remember:
   turn around don`t drown! It only takes several inches of moving
   water to lift a vehicle.

 - Clearing skies could lead overnight lows to dip into the 30s
   tonight, with areas of patchy fog developing.

 - Labor Day Weekend: Generally warm, partly to mostly cloudy.
   Dry through Saturday afternoon, with a chance of light rain
   thereafter. Localized breezy areas in the afternoon and
   evening.

Discussion:

Though rainfall has largely tapered off, Flood Advisories remain
in effect as rivers and streams continue to respond to recent
rainfall. Overall, the atmospheric river brought the highest rain
amounts to parts of Southern Kenai Peninsula, Susitna Valley, and
Prince William Sound, where three-day rain totals ranged from 3
to 8 inches, with some higher elevation weather stations
recording even higher amounts. Three-day rain totals were about
1.5 to 2 inches for Western Kenai Peninsula and Matanuska Valley,
1 to 1.5 inches for Anchorage and Turnagain Arm, 0.5 to 1 inch for
Kachemak Bay and Kodiak Island, and about 0.5 inch or less for
Copper River Basin.

Winds have also been quite impressive with this storm. The
strongest winds occurred yesterday, but max gusts since midnight
have been 40 mph or greater near Gakona Junction, across the
Anchorage Bowl and Hillside, and in Kenai. Winds have largely
diminished, but expect breezier than usual conditions to persist
in Kenai, Seward, Whittier, and the Valdez areas through tonight.

With this very active weather system behind us, much more benign
weather is on the way through the holiday weekend. Tonight, low-
level moisture from our recent rainfall, in combination with
clearing skies, could lead to temperatures in the 30s and areas of
patchy fog. Then, mostly sunny and dry through Saturday afternoon.
By early Saturday evening, rain associated with a Southwest
Alaska front looks increasingly likely to spill into the western
portions of Southcentral Alaska. Rain amounts look light for now,
but this could change if the front pushes further east than
currently forecast.

-Chen

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Mostly clear skies this afternoon and evening for much of
Southwest Alaska as a transient ridge passes through. Cloud cover
will quickly return Saturday morning as a Bering front nudges
along the coast.

The aforementioned front is currently set up over the
central/eastern Bering Sea, bringing rounds of widespread
precipitation and gale force winds to the Central/Eastern
Aleutians, southern Alaska Peninsula, and Pribilof Islands. As the
front pushes east, anticipate widespread rainfall across much of
Southwest Alaska beginning Saturday morning. Areas along the coast
can expect to see heavier precipitation as well as higher amounts
compared to inland areas. Southern portions of the southern
Alaska Peninsula, primarily King Cove and False Pass, and the
Togiak/Twin Hills area may see 3 to 3.5 inches of rainfall from
Saturday afternoon through Monday. Dillingham and the Western
Capes from Goodnews Bay to Platinum can expect to see up to 2.5
inches of rain for the same time period. Heavy rain may cause
stream rises and ponding on low lying areas along the northern
Bristol Bay coast. Persistent, gusty small craft to gale force
southerly winds pushing against the northern Kuskokwim Bay could
result in areas of slightly higher surf along the coast. Highest
winds are expected to peak during low tide both Saturday and
Sunday, thus significant coastal flooding is not expected at this
time. Gusty winds to 30 mph or higher at times are possible as far
inland as Bethel through this weekend.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Monday through
Friday)...

There is very little change in thinking for the beginning of next
week through the end of the workweek. A broad longwave trough
will be situated over the western and central Bering Sea, while a
longwave ridge extends up from the North Pacific into the Gulf of
Alaska toward the Alcan Border. This general pattern looks to hold
through mid- to- late week, aiming a stream of tropical moisture
in excess of one inch of precipitable water between these
features, toward the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska. As a
result, several inches of rainfall are forecast along the Pacific
side of the Alaska Peninsula, potentially in excess of 4 inches
for some locations through Thursday. Lower amounts, broadly
speaking 1 to 3 inches are possible for mainland Southwest Alaska.
While these regions are likely to be wet for much of the long
term forecast period, there is uncertainty in the exact
orientation of the atmospheric river, so many locations will
likely see several periods of moderate to heavy rain as the
moisture plume wobbles back and forth (west/east). There is some
potential that the moist southerly flow glances parts of
Southcentral, with the Cook Inlet region and southern Kenai
Peninsula with the greatest potential to see another round of
lighter rainfall.

High pressure across the Gulf of Alaska keeps winds light and
conditions generally dry across Southcentral for the duration of
the forecast period (with the exception of the aforementioned
potential for glances of moisture intrusion). By Wednesday, the
next North Pacific low approaches the western Aleutians, bringing
gusty winds, potentially to gale force, and light to moderate
rainfall. The track of this low is particularly uncertain, but it
looks to be fairly slow moving and generally tracks along the
periphery of the Aleutian Chain through the end of the week.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Gusty south-southwest winds will begin to diminish early
this evening with winds becoming around 10 kts late evening
through overnight. VFR conditions are expected to persist through
tomorrow. The main lingering question is whether there will be any
fog develop overnight into the early morning hours. Due to the
persistence of the strong winds after the rain ended, it looks
likely that the air at the surface will dry out enough that fog
will not develop.

&&


$$