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FXAK68 PAFC 230112
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
412 PM AKST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A low over the Gulf of Alaska will continue to promote weak
northerly flow across Southcentral tonight through Sunday morning.
Areas of fog that have persisted through the day on Saturday are
expected to continue or redevelop through tonight. Reduced
visibility has been noted across Southcentral from the Matsu down
into Anchorage for much of the day and little improvement is
forecast over the next 12 to 18 hours. A low-level inversion and
lingering moisture from recent rain and snow continues to
contribute to an environment favorable for the development and
sustainment of fog. A dense fog advisory remains in effect from
Birchwood into the Anchorage Bowl through 1pm Sunday afternoon.

Aside from the fog, a quieter weather pattern has set in across
Southcentral with drier conditions and a cooling trend over the
next couple of days. Overnight low temperatures Sunday morning and
again on Monday morning will easily dip down into the single
digits across the Copper River Basin, while lows in the teens and
low 20s are forecast from the Susitna Valley down into the Kenai
Peninsula. The cooler temperatures and denser air mass will
support the usual uptick in gap winds through Seward, Valdez Arm,
Thompson Pass and the Copper River Delta. Gusts to 20 to 25 knots
will be common place while winds gusting through Thompson Pass are
expected to climb into the 30 to 35 mph range by midday on
Sunday.

The biggest forecast challenge for tomorrow entails whether low
stratus develops over Cook Inlet. Forecast models have hinted at
light snow potential over Cook Inlet Sunday morning. Should this
occur light snow will be possible from Nikiski down to Ninilchik,
including Kenai and Soldotna.

Looking further ahead, the next front moves into the western Gulf
and Kodiak Island on Monday. Gusty southeasterly winds will
overspread the region with showery conditions into the middle of
next week.

BL

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 to 3: Tonight through Tuesday)...

Much of Southwest Alaska remains under the influence of the
western periphery of a longwave trough extending across much of
Northwest Canada and the southern Mainland. A couple embedded
shortwaves are dropping down along the coast towards the AKPen,
and this has helped keep just a bit more snow shower activity
going this afternoon despite the overall downward trend in
precipitation coverage. Across the Bering, a strong upper ridge is
in the process of becoming part of a Rex Block that will set up
over the region during the rest of the weekend into early next
week. To the southwest of this ridge, an intense Storm force front
associated with a ~970 mb North Pacific low is now moving into the
western and central portions of the Aleutian Chain. Shemya has
already seen a few easterly wind gusts of 55 to 65 mph this
afternoon, with similar winds expected to soon pick up through
Adak and Atka later this evening into tonight as the front moves
steadily northeast.

Overall, there are no major changes to the outlook through early
next week. One notable short term forecast challenge will involved a
rapid succession of multiple triple point lows expected to spin up
along the front as it lifts across the Aleutians into the southern
Bering Sea on Sunday and Monday. Winds could be a bit stronger
than forecast at times where these lows do end up forming and
locally enhance the already strong gradient between the front/low
and blocking ridge building to the north. These features are too
small and transient to pin down with precision all far ahead of
time, so this will be something to monitor for forecast
adjustments over the next day or so until the front shifts north
of the Aleutians/AKPen Monday into Monday night. Low level
temperatures will stay warm enough for most of the Aleutians to
see rain close to sea level along this boundary through Monday.
The Pribilofs could see a period of snow on the leading edge of
the precipitation shield as it moves up into the Bering on Monday,
but even here, temperatures will warm enough to see mostly rain
through Tuesday.

Across Southwest, conditions are still on track to stay calm but
cold through early next week. Snow showers will diminish this
evening into tonight as the main shortwave overhead rotates
offshore and as drier air begins to filter in from the Interior.
Temperatures will steadily cool through Sunday night as slowly
increasing northeast flow developing between the North Pacific low
and strong northern Bering ridge continues to help draw cool, dry
air into place. Depending on what happens with any lingering cloud
cover, temperatures could dip all the way down into the 0s above
for overnight lows on Sunday night across the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley and Delta. Northeast winds around 10 to 15 mph could push
windchill values into the -10s at times from late Sunday into
Monday. Temperatures will begin to slowly rebound from Monday to
Tuesday as flow turns more southeasterly and as the front tracking
across the Bering and Aleutians slowly approaches the coastline.
Most of the region will stay dry through early next week, but a
few spots along the immediate coast from Bristol Bay up into the
Kuskokwim Delta could begin to see periods of snow or a rain-snow
mix on Tuesday.

-AS

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Starting on Tuesday, a vertically stacked low and large cyclonic
circulation will be centered south of the Aleutians in a weakening
phase. Short-waves embedded within the circulation will track from
east to west from the western Gulf/Kodiak Island across the Alaska
Peninsula and Bristol Bay and continuing westward across the
southern Bering Sea. None of the features look particularly
strong, so would expect areas of precipitation and wind with
typical winter-time impacts. Precipitation-type will be mainly
rain, with Bristol Bay being the only location cold enough to see
snow. The upper low will open up into a trough by Thursday
(Thanksgiving), causing winds and precipitation to diminish.

Meanwhile, a strong ridge in the Arctic will build southward over
the northern half of mainland Alaska. This looks far enough south
to block any short-waves from the Aleutian trough from reaching
interior SW AK or Southcentral AK. Thus, expect seasonably cool
and dry conditions for these areas Tuesday through Wednesday. A
short-wave will dig down the east side of the ridge on Wednesday,
across the Yukon and into the Copper River Basin. This will bring
marginally colder temperatures, though accompanying cloud cover
will likely limit temperature drops. This trough will force the
upper ridge to retreat back northward and allow a short-wave
trough to approach Southcentral on Thursday. Model agreement with
this feature is not great, but ensembles generally support this
idea. With a cold air mass in place over Southcentral, the most
likely outcome would be widespread light snow arriving sometime
Thanksgiving Day.

As we continue to Friday into Saturday, model guidance is in
excellent agreement on amplification of the upper level flow and
development of an Atmospheric River. However, as would be expected
this far out in time, there is large spread in the location of
the ridge/trough and track of a leading surface low from the
Pacific. This evolving pattern does have good potential to bring
higher impact weather to southern Alaska, with strong winds, mixed
precipitation-types, and warming temperatures. Stay tuned as we
monitor the location of key features and identify the areas where
the greatest impacts are most likely.

-SEB/AM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...The challenge over the next 24 hours will be the extent of
lingering fog and mist across the terminal. Areas of fog area
expected to drift over the terminal through late evening, with
ceilings and visibilities fluctuating between MVFR and LIFR. By
tonight, widespread dense fog is expected to blanket the terminal
with visibilities at one half mile or less prevailing. The fog is
likely to remain over the terminal through late Sunday morning
before slowly moving west of the terminal and eroding, leading to
a return of VFR conditions. Brief periods of very light snow may
precipitate out of the fog overnight through mid-morning Sunday,
leading to a trace of accumulation at most.

&&


$$