546
FXAK68 PAFC 061345
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
545 AM AKDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An upper level trough and attendant surface low currently over the
southern Cook Inlet will lift into Southcentral Alaska today.
Most of the rain for Interior areas likely has already fallen
overnight or will early this morning with the leading shortwave,
but some showers will likely still develop later on with the
cooler air aloft and trailing shortwaves. The Gulf Coast will have
more consistent precipitation with the southerly flow. Near the
surface, a lee-side low will develop in Cook Inlet early this
morning before support aloft redevelops it near Montague Island
later this afternoon. This and the colder air moving in from the
northwest will bring strong winds to the Gulf waters, Kachemak
Bay, and Kodiak Island, where gusts to 50 mph are already being
felt in Akhiok. As the low departs into the eastern Gulf this
evening and into tomorrow morning, gap winds/outflow winds will
also develop through Whittier and Seward.

The weather on Tuesday looks dry region-wide as ridging develops
aloft. The Cook Inlet areas north into the Mat-Su will have some
high clouds spilling over the ridge, while the Copper Valley,
Prince William Sound, and Kodiak enjoy some sun. Temperatures
will be quite warm again for October due to a large intrusion of
warm air from the Southwest. Winds will increase throughout
Southcentral as the pressure gradient along the coast tightens in
response to a deep low in northwest Alaska. The winds will persist
through the forecast period. A deep southwesterly push of rain is
also expected to hit the Susitna Valley, Valdez and Cordova, also
persisting through Thursday.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday morning)...


Key Messages:

* Coastal Flood Watch for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak
  Island from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning.

* Special Weather Statement for strong gusty winds along the
  Southern Alaska Peninsula Tuesday through Tuesday night.


A low pressure system over the Kuskokwim Valley this morning will
transfer its energy eastward to the Gulf of Alaska through this
morning. In the meantime, rain continues along the Kuskokwim
Valley and interior Bristol Bay before tapering off this afternoon
with leftover showers remaining confined to the Western Alaska
Range.

The next weather-maker continues to take shape across the Bering
Sea this morning. A warm front attached to a surface low near the
Kamchatka Peninsula is currently draped across the central Bering
Sea and over the Pribilof Islands where rain is being observed
this morning. This warm front, showers associated with it, and the
warm air behind it, will continue eastward through today across
the rest of the Bering Sea and Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN). The warm
front makes it to mainland Southwest Alaska by this evening with
light rain along the coast.

Meanwhile, an upper-level trough over Kamchatka will continue to
dig into the North Pacific as a ridge behind the warm front,
mentioned above, builds and moves east across the Bering through
this afternoon. A secondary area of low pressure is currently
spinning up in the North Pacific south of the Western Aleutians.
This new low will quickly deepen as it moves into the western
Bering by this evening. This new Bering low will also absorb the
low near the Kamchatka Peninsula tonight as it lifts northward
while continuing to deepen. Tropical Pacific moisture and plenty
of warm air will also be drawn northward as an atmospheric river
looks to bring moderate to heavy rain across the Western Aleutians
today and the Central Aleutians and Pribilof Islands for Tuesday.
Moderate to heavy rain makes it to the Eastern Aleutians for
Tuesday evening with light to moderate rain for coastal Southwest
Alaska and the AKPEN. Rain lingers along the AKPEN and Southwest
before tapering off to showers during the afternoon with more
persistent showers remaining confined to the mountain ranges
through Wednesday evening.

In addition to the heavy rain threat, there will be strong winds
and a coastal flood threat along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and
Nunivak Island. Gusty southerly winds along the Kuskokwim Delta
Coast will pick up early Tuesday morning and peak late Tuesday
night before diminishing Wednesday morning. Wind gusts during the
peak will reach between 40 to 55 mph. This strong push of
southerly winds will cause water levels to rise along the coast.
Therefore, a Coastal Flood Watch continues for the Kuskokwim Delta
Coast and Nunivak Island. Also of concern are strong gusty
southerly to south-southwesterly winds along the southern AKPEN
Tuesday through Tuesday night where winds could gust between 50 to
65 mph. Winds along the southern AKPEN also diminish Wednesday
morning.

The ridge driving all the warm air across the Bering Sea and
Southwest Alaska will move eastward into the Gulf of Alaska
Wednesday afternoon. This will allow cold air to filter into
Southwest Alaska with westerly flow off the Bering. A weak
shortwave moves eastward from the Bering Sea and across Southwest
Alaska beginning Thursday morning which brings scattered showers
back in the forecast, especially along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast.
Meanwhile, a strong Sea of Okhotsk low moves east to the North
Pacific and sends its front to the Western Aleutians and western
Bering Thursday morning. There is reasonable confidence that this
will be a strong storm-force front once it reaches the Western
Aleutians Thursday. Moderate to heavy rain will also accompany the
southeasterly storm-force winds. Stay tuned to further updates to
the forecast as the active and stormy period continues with
little end in sight.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

High pressure ridging will push into Southcentral Alaska by mid-
week, bringing drier conditions for low elevation areas with
chances for light precipitation along the mountain tops through
the end of the week. A weakening front stretching across the
western half of the state, will help develop low pressure that
will bring rains back into the region this weekend.

Multiple fronts are expected to move across the Bering Sea into
Southwest Alaska through the end of the week and into this
weekend pulling abundant amounts of moisture from the North
Pacific. Moderate-to-heavy precipitation and gusty winds are
expected across the Aleutian Islands and coastal Southwest Alaska.
Precipitation is expected to spill further inland across Southwest
as the front(s) move onshore. Continued unseasonably warm and wet
weather will continue through the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds may briefly affect the
terminal this morning, gusting 20 to 25 kts, but winds will
otherwise remain light and variable. Ceilings likely bounce
around from VFR to MVFR as light rain showers linger through this
evening. This afternoon, winds strengthen a bit out of the
south, and ceilings lift above 5000 ft beyond around midnight
heading into Tuesday with decreasing chances of rain.

Quesada

&&


$$