152
FXAK68 PAFC 261336
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
536 AM AKDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A low moving into the eastern Bering Sea is sending a series of
fronts into Southcentral. Currently, a weak front is lifting
through the area that will increase gap winds for early this
afternoon. There is a trailing, stronger front following on its
heels to reinforce those gusty, gap winds and precipitation.
Stronger southeast flow with precipitation is bringing a steadier
rain to the Northern Gulf coast and Prince William Sound while its
interaction across the Chugach and Kenai Mountains are leading to
a rainshadow effect, keeping the leeside drier. A few sprinkles
are making it over the mountains though and as the front lifts
through the area this afternoon, some of that precipitation could
push a period of more steadier rain later in the day. Most of this
diminishes though as it moves farther inland.

The parent low will start to track across Bristol Bay and Kodiak
Island by Sunday morning. Weak waves of energy wrapping around
this low will keep the weather pattern fairly steady state through
it trek to the Gulf, but the magnitude of the wind speeds and
amount of precipitation will decrease with each passing wave.
Models differ in the position of the low once it settles into the
Gulf Monday through midweek. This will dictate how much
precipitation falls for coastal locations. Consensus overall,
appears to be pointing towards a cooling trend, weaker winds, and
decreasing chances of precipitation. Should precipitation linger
though, it would be relatively higher for the Gulf coast and
perhaps near higher elevations.

&&




.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Monday)...

Key Messages:

* A strong and expansive Bering Sea low continues to bring strong
  winds and high seas to much of the Bering Sea and Aleutians
  Saturday, though winds and seas will gradually diminish as the
  system weakens through the weekend.

* Strong winds across Southwest Alaska continue to gradually
  diminish as the system moves inland and weakens, though periods
  of rain and showers will persist.

Discussion:

A vertically stacked low over the Bering Sea remains the dominant
feature across the region. The upper-level circulation is readily
apparent in the 500 mb pattern, with several lobes of enhanced
vorticity rotating around the broader circulation. At the surface,
the low remains quite deep, while the associated front has pushed
inland across Southwest Alaska.While the pressure gradient
surrounding the low remains sufficient for strong winds across
portions of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain, the overall trend
will be toward diminishing winds as the system slowly loses
organization.

For the Bering Sea and Aleutians, strong southwesterly to westerly
flow continues Saturday on the southern side of the low. Another
focused shortwave rotating around the southern side of the parent
circulation will reinforce the pressure gradient and support areas
of enhanced winds across portions of the Aleutians. Westerly winds
will remain elevated across the eastern Bering, eastern Aleutians
and AKPEN into this evening before gradually diminishing as the
surface low fills and the pressure gradient relaxes. Seas will
likewise begin a downward trend through the remainder of the
weekend as the long-duration westerly fetch weakens.

For Southwest Alaska, rain becomes increasingly showery Saturday
as the deeper moisture associated with the front pulls farther
north and east. Winds will continue to diminish behind the front,
although locally gusty conditions may linger along exposed
coastal locations and through terrain-favored areas. The
prolonged push of water toward the Southwest Alaska coast will
also subside as winds diminish and become increasingly offshore.

Through Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, the overall system
continues to lose organization. The upper low become increasingly
elongated as shortwave energy rotates around and eventually away
from the parent circulation. This should allow the surface low to
gradually fill while the pressure gradient relaxes from west to
east. Despite the overall weakening trend, westerly winds will
remain elevated across portions of the eastern bering, eastern
Aleutians and AKPEN into Saturday evening.

The weakening trend becomes much more apparent by Sunday. Guidance
depicts the upper circulation becoming broader and less defined as
it shifts toward Southwest Alaska and the AKPEN. Heights begin to
rise over the western and central Bering behind the departing
trough, while the strongest mid-level flow becomes displaced
farther south and east. At the surface, the weakening low and
relaxing pressure gradient will allow winds to continue
diminishing across the Aleutians and Bering Sea.

That said, Sunday will not necessarily be completely quiet.
Cyclonic flow aloft and lingering low-level moisture should
support scattered showers across portions of Southwest Alaska,
AKPEN and eastern Aleutians. Northwesterly winds will also
persist behind the departing system, particularly across the
eastern Bering and Bristol Bay. Seas will continue to subside as
the long-duration westerly fetch weakens.

By Monday, the upper-level pattern remains unsettled despite the
continue weakening of the original Bering Sea low. The latest
guidance generally maintains broad troughing across Alaska and the
adjacent waters, with embedded shortwave energy rotating through
the larger-scale circulation. Model difference become more
apparent by this time, particularly regarding the placement and
strengthen of individual vorticity maxima and the degree to which
the upper circulation remains consolidated.

Despite these difference, the overall signal supports continued
cyclonic flow across Southwest Alaska and portions of the Bering
Sea into Monday. This should maintain scattered showers across
portions of Southwest Alaska and the AKPEN, while additional
showers remain possible across the eastern Bering and Aleutians.
Winds should remain considerably lower than earlier in the
weekend, though locally enhanced winds will remain possible with
passing shortwaves and through favored coastal and terrain areas.

Overall, the forecast trend remains toward a continued decrease
in winds and seas through the weekend as the Bering low fills and
the pressure gradient relaxes. However, the upper-level pattern
remains cyclonic into Monday, allowing periods of showers and
locally enhanced winds to persist across portions of Southwest
Alaska, Bering Sea and Aleutians. Forecast confidence decreases
somewhat by Monday regarding the exact position and timing of
individual shortwaves withing the broader upper-level circulation.


LM



&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

The long term period starting out on Tuesday will feature a
complex trough moving over the southern Mainland and Alaska Gulf,
with a surface low moving over the northeastern Gulf near Yakutat.
Gusty northwest winds will likely be ongoing through gaps and
passes along the coast of Southcentral, particularly near Kodiak
Island and the Barrens. Out west, cool northwesterly flow
extending from the Bering Strait down along the western coastline
will bring seasonably cool temperatures in the 30s and 40s down
into much of Southwest Alaska through midweek. A low-amplitude
ridge is anticipated to be progressing across parts of the central
Bering and Aleutian Chain, allowing for relatively quiet
conditions to prevail initially. However, a low moving out of
Kamchatka will likely reach the central/western parts of the
Bering and Aleutians by Tuesday afternoon, sending gusty southeast
winds and rain across the region as the low and leading frontal
boundary push east with time.

Looking towards the end of next week, models diverge in regards to
the progression of the low approaching the southwestern Bering
earlier in the week. The deterministic 12z ECMWF is a notable
outlier at this time, as it depicts the ridge over the Bering
remaining much farther west through Thursday and Friday. It also
attempts to dig a separate trough south from northern Kamchatka
down into the AKPen and Gulf region between Tuesday and Thursday,
ultimately becoming a deeper low in the southern Gulf on Friday as
it interacts with another system driving up from the Pacific. In
contrast, most of the other deterministic and ensemble guidance
supports the Bering low and attendant upper trough remaining as
as the dominant system, showing the low continue to track mainly
east along the Aleutian Chain through Friday. Assuming this more
favored solution plays out, gusty south to southeast winds and
rain along the low`s front could shift from the Bering and
Southwest into Southcentral between Thursday and Friday. Most of
the heavier rain would likely be focused mainly along the Gulf
Coast, with most of the interior parts of Southcentral staying
drier towards the second half of next week.

-AS

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Light
northerly winds are forecast through at least midday, at times
becoming variable. Similarly to Friday, there is much uncertainty
in whether southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds clip the terminal
later this afternoon. The best chance for any southeasterly winds
and gusts will be closer to 00z but surface flow is expected to
remain largely down inlet, keeping any terminal interactions
brief. Rain chances will be scarce with stronger southeasterly
flow aloft approaching or exceeding 30 knots. Which should
downslope moisture and limit any precipitation largely to light
drizzle.

BL

&&


$$