393
FXAK68 PAFC 041413
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
513 AM AKST Wed Nov 4 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

The low positioned over the central Gulf last night quickly lifted
northwest, and as of this morning, is moving through the Kennedy
Entrance and the southern tip of the Kenai Peninsula. The associated
front has lifted inland, though cross-barrier flow has prevented
little if any precipitation to make it over to the lee side of the
Kenai and Chugach Mountains. However, weakening cross-barrier flow
is allowing for these showers to steadily progress over the
mountains and beginning to filter into the western Kenai and
Anchorage Bowl. There is still quite a bit of dry air to overcome
given the 12Z PAFC sounding, but some light precipitation is
possible this morning as the low continues to push off to the west.
For most areas long the western Kenai and up through the Mat-Su have
stayed above freezing overnight and so any precipitation this
morning should stay mainly rain or drizzle...however, some of the
typically colder pockets could see a glaze of ice develop and
precipitation freeze on some of the colder paved surfaces. Better
chances for an glaze of ice would be over portions of the southern
and central Susitna Valley (mainly from Willow north to Talkeetna
and west to Skwentna) where temperatures are closer to freezing, but
anything that makes it that far will be light and should push
through pretty quickly. A secondary low near Kodiak and a shortwave
trough lifting north around the eastern periphery of the low will
keep showery conditions going along the northern Gulf coast through
Thursday morning.

By Thursday afternoon, another low will deepen as it lifts north
into the Central Gulf. As of this morning, models continue to keep
the bulk of the impacts from this low over open and coastal waters
along the northeast Gulf with very little working into Southcentral.
The low will then retrograde back to the west, nearing Middleton
Island on Friday and near Prince William Sound by Saturday...bringing
increased chances for precipitation along the coast and increased
winds over the near-coastal waters.


- PP


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday evening)...


Unsettled weather will persist across Southwest Alaska, the Alaska
Peninsula, the Bering and Aleutians through Friday. Widespread showers
persist and a cooling trend will be seen through the remainder of
the week.

A frontal boundary continues to sit over Southwest Alaska with a
weakening low positioned in the southern part of the Cook Inlet.
This low continues to weaken as it moves northwest through
Southwest Alaska today, reaching the Y-K Delta by Thursday
morning. This will continue to bring showers across Southwest and
the Alaska Peninsula, with highest chances for precipitation
along the Alaska Range, the Kilbuck Mountains, and the Bering side
of the Alaska Peninsula. With help from a Bering low, cold air
advection will slowly decrease temperatures throughout the week,
especially across Southwest. Snow levels will drop, allowing for a
chance of mixed precip to light snow across Southwest (especially
tonight). Precipitation likely stays as rain for the Southwest
Coast and the Alaska Peninsula as temperatures stay slightly
warmer. The low completely phases into a trough associated with a
Bering low on Thursday. Chances for showers decrease across
Southwest, with only isolated activity possible over the Kilbuck
Mountains through Friday. Upsloping winds on the Bering side of
the Alaska Peninsula will maintain higher chances for showers
through Friday. With cold air advection persisting, temperatures
will continue to decrease across Southwest Alaska into the
weekend. Temperatures will remain slightly warmer for the Alaska
Peninsula.

Another low currently sits over the northwestern Bering. This low
remains nearly stationary through Thursday morning, then dives
south through the Bering and eastern Aleutians, exiting into the
North Pacific by Friday afternoon. Westerly small-craft force
winds and scattered showers will continue throughout the Bering
and Aleutians through Friday. This low continues to drive cold air
into the Bering, allowing for a mix of rain and snow showers from
the western Aleutians to the Pribilofs. Temperatures should
remain warm enough across most of the central and eastern
Aleutians for rain, with possibly some overnight snowflakes mixing
in. As the low moves through the Bering and Aleutians Thursday-
Friday, westerly gale-force winds will move through the Bering as
the pressure gradient tightens with a building ridge east of
Kamchatka. These stronger winds will be south of the Aleutian
Chain by late Friday morning.


- PA


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

A broad upper trough will be established from the eastern Bering
into the eastern Gulf during the long term forecast period. As
such, disturbances and surface lows traversing within the cyclonic
flow will be directed south of much of the Aleutian Chain and
then northeastward into the eastern Gulf. Southwest Alaska will be
the focus for more active weather from Saturday into early next
week, though coastal showers, elevation snow, and periods of gusty
gap winds appear likely for the gulf coast, especially the Prince
William Sound region. Further inland, drier and cooler conditions
remain favorable. Out west, persistent northerly flow will be
common across the Bering with scattered convective showers
possible as well as elevated gap winds through the Aleutian Chain.


-BL


&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period.
Winds will remain generally out of the north at 5-10 kts. Light
precipitation in the form of rain or a wintry mix may work into
the terminal this morning.

&&


$$