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FXAK68 PAFC 251302
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
502 AM AKDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

The main weather features in play throughout the remainder of the
workweek will be a North Pacific low moving northwards over the
western Aleutians into the Bering Sea today before rapidly
deepening, and a broad and elongated ridge extending from central
Alaska down into British Columbia. In between these features, an
area of low pressure continues to weaken near Kodiak Island. Several
easterly waves will traverse the periphery of the ridge before the
upper ridge axis shifts north in response to the Bering low lifting
a front up across the AKPen and western Gulf. This front looks to
stall near Kodiak Island then quickly wash out by Friday. Kodiak
will see some rain as the front nears the island, but rain looks to
remain light and mainly confined to the southern half of the island.

For today...one of the aforementioned easterly waves is currently
moving across the Kenai Peninsula resulting in scattered showers
along the southern end of the Kenai and across the southern end of
Cook Inlet into the Barren Islands. Increasing isentropic lift ahead
of this wave has also sparked some showers near Talkeetna and the
northern Susitna Valley. As the system moves into the valley later
today, could see scattered thunderstorms develop and lift north;
however, limited instability should hamper overall coverage. Greater
thunderstorm chances look to be focused along the foothills of the
Alaska Range and portions of the Copper River Basin. Wednesday and
Thursday will see thunderstorm chances begin to shift eastwards
towards the Copper River Basin, but can`t rule out some storms
forming near the Talkeetna Mountains.

Surface high pressure over the Gulf will allow for increasing
onshore flow with fog and stratus lingering over the northern Gulf
and near coastal areas.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday night)...

The forecast remains on track for more stable air to begin moving
into the southwestern mainland over the next few days. With that,
thunderstorm activity should be confined to the inland locations
near the Western Alaska Range and the Middle Kuskokwim Valley over
the next couple days with little western progression from there.
Aside from some morning showery activity most of Bristol Bay and
the Kuskokwim Delta should have a pleasant and quiet day today.

The pattern then changes Wednesday and into Thursday. A strong
Fall season-like low near the western and central Aleutians will
continue to slowly lift northeastward into the Bering over the
next few days. The initial front, currently over the eastern
Aleutians will continue moving eastward to the southwest mainland
by Wednesday. Expect widespread gale-force southerly to
southwesterly winds to accompany this front. Strongest wind gusts,
up to storm-force will occur through the bays and passes of the
Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) late Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. More importantly, this front will weaken as it moves to
the southwest coast with some gales early Wednesday, transitioning
to small-craft winds with gale- force gusts by Wednesday
afternoon and evening. The precipitation with this front will not
make it very far inland of the Bristol Bay and Kuskokwim Delta
coasts; therefore, the Lower/Middle Kuskokwim Valley will remain
mostly dry with the bear share of precipitation remaining confined
to the southwest coast and AKPEN. The Bering low, now occluded,
looks to sit and spin in the central Bering for most of Thursday
and continue to send waves of moisture to the southwest coast.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

A ridge of high pressure in the Interior will continue to dominate
through weekend resulting in an isolated rain shower or
thunderstorm. High pressure in the Gulf of Alaska will keep the
Southcentral dry into the beginning of next week. A series of
lows progress through the Bering Sea into the Interior Southwest
bringing cooler temperatures, clouds and frequent rain showers to
the area through the weekend.

-DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC... VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period with
southwesterly up-inlet flow continuing into Wednesday. Building
high pressure over the area will also result in decreasing
precipitation chances near the terminal. Brief southerly gusts
are possible from the Turnagain Arm, but are expected to be
weaker than yesterday.

&&


$$