700
FXAK68 PAFC 011338
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
538 AM AKDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The center of the upper low that brought fairly widespread rain
and snow yesterday is currently over the Kenai Peninsula. This
feature will lift northwest into the Copper Valley today,
bringing another round of rain and possibly low elevation snow to
Anchorage and the Mat Valley as it moves through. Farther east,
instability and lift from the trough continue to push showers into
Valdez and Cordova, as well as along the higher terrain
surrounding the Copper Valley.

For Friday, clear skies and the remnant cold airmass will bring
the first hard freeze from the Mat Valley south into the Kenai
Peninsula. Expect temperatures in the upper 20s. Farther east, the
remnants of the upper trough will continue to bring showers to the
Copper Valley through around noon. The weather will remain active
into the weekend as a strong front extending north of a broad,
complex low in the north Pacific pushes into Kodiak Island by
Friday afternoon. Widespread northeasterly gales and rain are
expected along the front. This will push slowly north into the
northern Gulf and eastern Kenai Peninsula by Sunday afternoon.
Breezy north winds will develop from Palmer south into the Inlet
as rain pushes into the Sound. There`s quite a bit of model spread
in the timing of the main upper level trough and/or surface
features as they move north into Southcentral on Sunday. Expect
widespread rain however, regardless of the smaller details.


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

* Sub-freezing overnight temperatures in Southwest Alaska
  throughout the week.

* Rain and gale-force winds spreads eastward across the central to
  eastern Bering/Aleutians through Friday. Another, slightly
  stronger front enters the western Bering/Aleutians Friday night
  and its accompanied low treks through Saturday morning.

Discussion:

As the northern periphery of a low pressure system, south of the
Aleutian Chain, skirts across the Aleutians to the Alaska
Peninsula, expect widespread rainfall and generally windy
conditions through Friday evening. Meanwhile, a stronger Kamchatka
low with its attendant front reaches the western Bering Sea and
Aleutians Friday night. Additional rainfall is expected to
continue for the Aleutians. It appears to be a stronger low than
the previous low, with gale force sustained winds expected at this
time. On the back side of the front and wrapping around the
parent low, westerly winds could increase to storm force over the
western Aleutians, including Shemya and Attu (around 50 percent
confidence).

As the upper level trough moves east tonight, ridging will build
across Southwest Alaska. Northerly flow and relatively dense,
Arctic air will allow for continued clearer skies and ultimately
colder temperatures. Daytime high temperatures will struggle to
get out of the 40s with nighttime/morning lows in the 20s. A few
isolated spots farther inland could even touch the upper teens.
The minimum temperatures will be highly dependent upon cloud
cover. None-the- less, skies should generally continue to clear
over the next couple of mornings. Temperatures across the AKPEN
should stay above freezing through the week. This weekend into
next week, temperatures will slightly rebound toward more
seasonably normal temperatures. Watch for potential fog
development along the Kuskokwim River near Bethel while under the
ridge.

-CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

No change from previous discussion... Looking ahead toward this
weekend, models are synoptically in good agreement in the midrange
forecast, featuring a low moving toward Kodiak Island from the
North Pacific and another low into the Bering Sea from the west.
Precipitation with east to southeast winds will be more than
likely for Southcentral, especially closer to the Northern Gulf
coast and Kodiak Island. By Sunday, the front extending from the
Bering Sea low reaches Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula
bringing rain, snow, and southerly flow across the area. As the
low sinks southward Monday, models diverge on how far south the
low will dip. Generally, the low appears to pass through the
Alaska Peninsula and near Kodiak Island/Western Gulf. As this
pattern sets up through the first half of next week, cold air
advection and northerly winds will become enhanced through gaps
along the Aleutians. If the low sinks south farther east, the
Alaska Peninsula would see more cold air advection and those
northerly winds. While temperatures overall for southern Mainland
are trending cooler in the short term, some moderation of that
trend is expected toward more seasonable norms, but will remain on
the cooler side.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...A through lifting from southwest to northeast today will
continue rain and possibly snow showers throughout the area
through the afternoon. Expect cigs and vis to drop to MVFR to IFR
during periods of precipitation. Conditions will return to VFR
this evening though freezing fog may develop tomorrow morning.

&&


$$