397
FXAK68 PAFC 280016
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
416 PM AKDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A low pressure system located over Kodiak Island drifts into the
Gulf of Alaska tonight as it continues to weaken. As a result,
light rain showers will persist along the northern Gulf coast and
Kodiak Island tonight, but gradually diminish tomorrow as the
system pulls away toward the Panhandle. Given the ample moisture
and instability associated with the low, there is a 20 - 30%
chance of marine lighting in the Gulf waters tonight through
Tuesday morning. For tomorrow, conditions should remain relatively
benign across Southcentral, with clearing skies as a drier
airmass filters in from the northwest. Winds will remain light in
most spots, though gusty northerly winds are possible through
channeled terrain along the north Gulf coast.

A shortwave trough sweeps across interior Alaska on Tuesday and
will scrape the northern portions of Southcentral. While there
remains model disagreement on the placement of showers,
precipitation will be mostly confined to the higher terrain,
particularly the Alaska Range and Talkeetna Mountains, with only
isolated showers across the lower elevations. Mountain snow will
be possible in areas above 3,000 ft, with a 10 - 20% chance for
light accumulations across Hatcher Pass. Cool air continues to
stream in from the northwest behind this system, ushering in a
cooling trend on both Tuesday and Wednesday. In areas where skies
clear Wednesday morning, overnight lows could reach near-to-below
freezing for some lower elevation areas. Southwesterly flow
develops Wednesday ahead of another upper-level trough, allowing
showers to rebuild over the northern Gulf coast, particularly
Prince William Sound. Given the cold airmass, mountain snow is
possible along the coastal Chugach, including Thompson Pass.

-CW

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

Discussion:

A typical fall-like pattern over the next few days is expected as
the Bering low exits into the Gulf, temperatures trend cooler,
and a Kamchatka low approaches the Aleutian Islands.

A vertically stacked low over the Alaska Peninsula will continue
to make its way into the western Gulf through the overnight hours.
This system will continue the clouds and rain for the Alaska
Peninsula, as well as showers for Southwest, with the chance
decreasing throughout the day tomorrow. The cloud cover will still
persist for Southwest from a weak upper level low in the Interior
which will dissipate by Tuesday.

Another upper level trough builds into Southwest and the Alaska
Peninsula from the Arctic Monday night. This will continue the
cloud cover through Wednesday. Temperatures will begin to be
noticeably cooler, especially overnight.

A front from a Kamchatka low enters the Bering Sea Tuesday night.
The latest models runs indicate a stronger low, hence a stronger
front. There is model consensus that the front will remain west of
Unalaska through Wednesday. A swath of small craft winds have
been added to the forecast with areas of gale force winds.

-SS

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

Southcentral: A trough continues to dig into the Gulf of Alaska
into next weekend. Though model spread persists, most ensembles
and deterministic guidance agree with an upper level low moving
south out of the Interior early next weekend. The combination of
the digging trough and upper level low brings keeps the chance of
rain across the Prince William Coast and Eastern Kenai Peninsula
coast ranging from between 60 and 70% with inland locations at 20%
late this week but increasing to 40% through next weekend. Also,
winds through the Barren Islands from Friday afternoon through
late Saturday morning have a 45% chance of gusting above 45 mph.
In the latter part of next weekend, a low forms in the Gulf of
Alaska. It will meander in the Gulf of Alaska bringing rain to the
Prince William Sound coast while drawing southward cooler air for
the rest of Southcentral.

Southwest: A mid-week trough bringing frequent rain showers to
the Aleutians and Southwest is replaced by a more zonal/weak
ridge late this week. This ridging is short-lived as a front from
Kamchatka low quickly moves through the Aleutians reaching the
Mainland late next weekend. Wind speed chances exceeding 45 mph
range from 40% to 60% though exceeding 55 mph is 20%; highest
chances in the ALeutians.

-Johnston

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Periods
of light rain showers will be possible through this evening, but
any drops in ceiling and visibility should be limited and brief.
Light north to northeast winds will persist through Monday.

-AS

&&


$$