955
FXAK68 PAFC 281254
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
454 AM AKDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday evening)...

Satellite imagery this morning shows a surface low off the
southeast coast of Kodiak Island continuing to move through the
western Gulf toward the North Pacific. Low clouds continue to
rotate around the low; however, these clouds should dissipate in
coverage, at least across interior parts of the island, as the
low exits the region.

Farther north, the upper-level trough that brought widespread
shower activity from Homer to Broad Pass yesterday continues to
elongate and weaken this morning. A surface low near McGrath this
morning will move toward Bristol Bay as an upper-level ridge
begins to drive south from northwest Alaska. Scattered showers
will linger across the Susitna Valley and the Copper River Basin
today, diminishing in coverage as the trough weakens. A weak
easterly wave will move across Southcentral today, getting drawn
southwestward toward Bristol Bay be this evening. This feature
may result in a few isolated thunderstorms over parts of the
Copper River Basin and Susitna Valley this afternoon. While
chances are low (10-20%) for thunderstorm development, any
additional daytime heating from breaks in the clouds will help
increase instability.

The upper-level ridge axis then moves to the Alaska Range by
Wednesday and over the Southern Mainland for Thursday and Friday.
This pattern will result in a return to more summer-like
conditions with generally clear skies and temperatures pushing
into the upper 60 to lower 70s for coastal locations and will into
the 70s for interior locations. A period of gusty winds is likely
(70-80%) to develop for Seward and Whittier as the ridge builds in
from the north. One caveat to this forecast will be the extent of
lingering low clouds and fog over the Gulf of Alaska as the ridge
builds in. There is some indication that some low clouds or fog
may advect toward the immediate coast, and perhaps into Cook
Inlet, as early as Wednesday morning with a greater chance of
these clouds moving into Prince William Sound by Thursday.

-TM

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday)...

Morning satellite imagery shows a trough in the Gulf of Alaska, a
weakening front in the eastern Aleutian Chain, and a ridge
building behind the front. Though the front in the Aleutians will
dissipate by early afternoon, rainfall will continue through early
afternoon. Throughout the Bering and into the AKPen and Bristol
Bay, areas of fog persist. Much of Southwest has cleared out after
the trough moved to the Gulf overnight.

With the front having dissipated and the main trough well into
the North Pacific, ridging once again becomes established in the
Bering today and will extend up to Interior Alaska through the
week. Some showers will linger along the western Alaska Range from
King Salmon northward through this evening as upsloping winds
still persist east of the ridge axis. Otherwise, Southwest and
much of the Alaska Peninsula (AKPen) will see warm, clear and dry
conditions through Thursday. While much of Southwest and the
northern AKPen will see highs in the 60s to low 70s, the areas to
watch will be from Bristol Bay north to the Kuskokwim Valley,
where there will likely be a prolonged period of daytime highs
above 70 degrees. The warmest of these days will be Wednesday and
Thursday when the ridge positions directly over Southwest. For
Bristol Bay, conditions like these occur about once a year,
typically towards the end of July. With more people out and about
conducting subsistence activities, it`s a good idea to plan for
these warmer temperatures, especially as several days in a row of
70+ degree temperatures could lead to cumulative heat stress. The
good news is that overnight lows will dip to 45-50 degrees,
providing the opportunity for some cooling down overnight. We`ll
continue to monitor these conditions to see whether warmer
temperatures are more pronounced. For the Bering, Aleutians and
far southern AKPen, the ridge overhead means conditions will
continue to be conducive for areas of low stratus and fog. Areas
of overnight fog may also form in Bristol Bay and along the AKPen
up to King Salmon. Fog will continue to be the most challenging
part of the forecast.

A low from the North Pacific moves towards the western Aleutian
Chain Wednesday afternoon and spreads to the southern Bering on
Thursday while pushing a front through the Aleutians. This will
begin to displace the ridge east, bringing rain and small- craft
winds to the southern Bering and much of the Aleutian Chain
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. A somewhat strong upper jet and
theta-e ridge will be present with this system, which may allow
conditions to be conducive for isolated marine lightning along the
front. By Thursday evening, the low will be positioned in the
central Bering with its front positioned in the eastern Aleutians.

-PA

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The trend towards warmer, drier conditions continues through the
long term period as high pressure remains over much of mainland
Alaska and the northern Gulf of Alaska. Broad troughing is
forecast to slide across the southern Bering and Aleutians Friday
through Saturday. While not particularly strong, intermittent rain
chances are likely beneath and downstream of the trough, with the
greatest chance for rain stretching from Unalaska and Saint Paul
to coastal Southwest Alaska through Saturday. By Sunday into early
next week, the low tracks into the North Pacific with its front
remaining well south of the northern Gulf coast.

&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through this evening. Showers
remain possible early this morning and again later this
afternoon, and may bring ceilings down briefly to MVFR levels;
however, ceilings will recover quickly to VFR for the remainder of
the forecast period. Lingering gusty southeast winds overnight
will quickly shut off by early this morning with a light westerly
wind developing late this morning and continuing through late this
evening.

-CL/TM

&&


$$