990
FXAK68 PAFC 250148
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
448 PM AKST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Satellite imagery this afternoon reveals the fog bank that has
been plaguing the Cook Inlet region and northward up to the
Susitna Valley has redeveloped, though is more patchy in nature
than yesterday and is accompanied by areas of low stratus.
Relatively drier air (via a light north to north-northeast wind)
has been trying to advect southward across this stretch of
Southcentral, and has kept much of the fog from becoming
widespread. The MOS guidance is in solid agreement with keeping at
least patchy fog around through Tuesday morning. Synoptically
speaking, there is little in the way of anything in the next 12-18
hours to completely eliminate fog from the forecast. The
combination of residual moisture from recent snowfall and light
winds mixing this moisture from the ground to just off the surface
is one piece of a prime fog setup. There ideally needs to be a
big weather player with strong enough forcing to shut off the fog
machine.

The 500 mb flow late Tuesday becomes increasingly difluent in
nature downstream of a digging trough in advance of a front
pushing into the western Gulf and across Kodiak Island Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. The front does not look to be too
terribly impactful, with only small craft sustained winds up to
borderline gale force wind gusts. Temperatures for Kodiak also
look to remain in the mid to upper 30s, keeping any precipitation
that falls in the form of rain. Models have a good consensus on
the timing of the front, but differ somewhat on structure and if
the front can spin up a low along its trough axis. When the front
likely arrives to Southcentral Wednesday afternoon/evening, cross
barrier flow and downsloping in lee of the Chugach will help to
keep precipitation amounts light across the Anchorage Bowl. The
windward slopes, however, could see light snowfall accumulations
with rain being the predominant precipitation type for the Prince
William Sound. The front will then stall out along the coast as a
potentially more impactful system enters the western Gulf and
moves closer to Kodiak Island.

-AM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Thursday)...

The overall setup across the Bering Sea is little changed compared
to yesterday, with a strong blocking high still centered near the
Bering Strait this afternoon. This blocking regime is preventing
any systems from moving up into the region from Kamchatka or the
North Pacific, resulting in a fairly stagnant pattern across the
Bering and Southwest. Much of the region continues to sit within a
swath of easterly flow between a stalled out low drifting near
the western Aleutians and the strong cutoff ridge presiding over
much of the Chukchi Sea and Northeast Russia. A wavy frontal zone
now extends from the weakening low west of Adak out to the south
of the AKPen, and a new low has recently developed along this
front a ways to the south of Sand Point. This low will become a
key player in the forecast over the next 24 hours or so as it
heads northwest into the Bering. Across Southwest, an upper level
shortwave is moving offshore into the eastern Bering Sea near the
Kuskokwim Delta. The low to mid cloud cover that was prevalent
this morning is clearing out behind this feature as drier air
filters in and as northeast winds continue to steadily trend
upwards.

In terms of the near term outlook, the forecast for the next day
or two remains well on track with little change to expectations
through Tuesday. As noted above, the most impactful conditions
across the outlook area will follow along the new low as it arcs
north and west into the southern Bering between tonight and
Tuesday night. A pocket of gale force winds with storm force gusts
will move in tandem with the low as it enhances the north-south
gradient in place across the Bering/Aleutians, first reaching the
southern AKPen and eastern Bering later tonight into Tuesday
morning. The low itself looks slightly less impressive compared to
some model projections from yesterday, but still sufficiently
intense to cause a considerable spike in winds as it crosses into
the Bering near Akutan. This will be most noticeable where winds
funnel through gaps near False Pass and Cold Bay, where a few
gusts to around 55 to 65 mph are likely early on Tuesday morning
as the low passes to the west.

Later in the day on Tuesday, south winds gusting up to 40 mph
will be possible as pressure rises behind the low passage move up
into Unalaska. Gale force winds will then progress into the
central Bering and Pribilofs as the low continues west by Tuesday
afternoon. The low will begin to rapidly weaken Tuesday night as
it curves back south into the central Aleutians, leaving behind a
much more disorganized, showery pattern along with weak winds that
will persist across the Bering and Aleutians through Thanksgiving
Day.

For Southwest, conditions will remain cooler and calmer for the
first half of the week, but will begin to turn more unsettled
towards Wednesday and Thursday. Easterly, offshore winds will peak
on Tuesday as the compact low moves up into the southern Bering,
but will continue to some extent through midweek as an offshore
pressure gradient persists. A pattern change will begin from
Wednesday to Thursday as the blocking high to the north begins to
break down and as southerly flow begins to pick up between the
messy longwave trough over the Bering and a new ridge axis
developing over the eastern Mainland. This will result in a
warmer air mass streaming north into Southwest, pushing
temperatures from the 0s and 10s up all the way into the 20s to
low 30s for much of the region by Thursday. A couple shortwave
troughs will also move up from the North Pacific into Southwest
between Wednesday and Thursday, ushering in a returning potential
for precipitation. The best chance for steady snow and rain will
initially be focused over northern Bristol Bay, where southerly
flow will support upslope enhancement near the Kilbucks. Areas of
rain and snow could be a little more widespread with the arrival
of the second trough and attendant low moving up into Southwest
for Thanksgiving Day.

-AS

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Thursday through Sunday)...

A pattern shift to warmer temperatures and precipitation continues
to be seen in the long range models.

A ridge builds in the Pacific Ocean and slowly moves eastward
through the weekend. On Friday and Saturday, its orientation
in the Pacific Ocean results in southerly flow into the Aleutians
and a more southwesterly flow into Kodiak Island and
Southcentral. This brings warm air advection for the Aleutians
resulting in weekend precipitation falling as mostly rain and
strong southerly winds; especially through the bays and passes.
While a main low rotates well east of the Pribilofs in the Bering
Sea this weekend, numerous lows move over the Aleutians bringing
periods of heavy rainfall and winds to the area. As the high moves
eastward Sunday/Monday, the chances of storms reaching the
Mainland increases though confidence in their exact location and
strength through the Bering Sea is low at this time.

Southwesterly flow into Kodiak Island and Southcentral Alaska
persists this weekend with the greatest chance of precipitation
late Saturday into Monday. Right now, mesoscale disagreement
remains for timing and amounts of the heaviest precipitation from
weak lows moving through from the Pacific Ocean into the Gulf of
Alaska. However, this synoptic pattern indicates a warming trend
for Kodiak Island and Southcentral this weekend and into Prince
William Sound Monday as waves of moisture bring periods of periods
of heavy precipitation and gusty winds with warm air advection to
the region.

-Johnston


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Dry air continues to mix out the fog this afternoon,
though radiation fog developing on Knik Arm continues to be a
challenge for the TAF forecast. While it may mix out this
afternoon and evening, it`s somewhat likely it will develop again
overnight due to little change in the overall pattern coupled with
cold temperatures over the relatively warmer, ice free water. We
will get a pattern change on Tuesday with increased cloud
coverage as a weak front lifts into the Gulf. This should allow
for VFR conditions to return after sunrise on Tuesday.

&&


$$