624
FXAK68 PAFC 271257
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
457 AM AKDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An upper level low currently over Bristol Bay will slowly weaken
and move into the eastern Gulf over the next 72 hours. Through
Monday afternoon, upper level shortwaves will rotate into the
coast and some interior areas, bringing periods of light rain
showers. Overall precipitation chances and magnitude decrease as
you move inland. Along the coast and Kodiak, expect more frequent
rain due to upslope and onshore flow. Colder air will slowly wrap
into the low, so expect a slight cooling trend this week with lows
around freezing for cooler spots by Tuesday morning. As we move
into Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday, the low will depart farther
to the east, leading to more widespread clearing, and colder
morning lows. There is a weak trough expected to move into the
region on Wednesday, but there remains uncertainty as to its
overall shape and speed as it moves from the AKPen and into the
Gulf and/or Kenai Peninsula. It does look like rain and mountain
snow will return by late Wednesday.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)...

Key Messages:

* Showers continue across Southwest Alaska and the Alaska
  Peninsula through Monday before gradually becoming less
  widespread.

* Winds continue to diminish across much of the eastern Bering and
  Alaska Peninsula as the current low weakens and moves east.

* Another upper-level system approaches the Bering Sea and
  Aleutians Monday night into Tuesday, bringing another period of
  unsettled weather.

Discussion:

A vertically stacked low over the eastern Bering remains the
dominant feature today, with several lobes of enhanced vorticity
rotating around the broader upper-level circulation. The low will
continue east across the AKPen and into the western Gulf through
Monday while gradually weakening and becoming more elongated. As
the system loses organization, winds across the eastern Bering,
eastern Aleutians, and AKPen will gradually diminish.

Cyclonic flow and lingering low-level moisture will keep showers
across Southwest Alaska and the AKPen today, with embedded
shortwaves periodically enhancing precipitation. Shower coverage
gradually decreases tonight into Monday as better upper-level
support shifts east. Persistent onshore flow will keep the AKPen
wetter, particularly along windward terrain.

Cold air advection behind the departing low will bring cooler
temperatures across the region through early next week. Overnight
lows will generally fall into the low to mid 30s across Southwest
Alaska, with mid to upper 30s along the AKPen. Cool overnight
temperatures are expected to persist Tuesday and Wednesday as
colder air remains in place across the region.

Attention turns west Monday night into Tuesday as another upper-
level disturbance drops southeast toward the Bering and Aleutians.
Guidance agrees on a return to a more amplified and unsettled
pattern, though differences remain in the exact strength and
position of the system. Precipitation chances and winds increase
across portions of the Aleutians ad Bering as the system
approaches Tuesday.

LM


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

The middle of the week begins with a complex upper level trough
over the southern mainland and Gulf of Alaska and a surface low in
the northeast portion of the northeastern Gulf. Gusty northwest
gap and pass winds should persist along the Southcentral coast,
especially near Kodiak Island and the Barren Islands.Farther west,
cool northwesterly flow from the Bering Strait down the western
coast will keep Southwest Alaska in the 30s to 40s through the end
of the week. A low-amplitude ridge moving across the central
Bering and Aleutian Islands should keep conditions relatively
quiet at first, but a Kamchatka low is expected to reach the
central and western Bering and Aleutians by Wednesday afternoon.
That system and its leading front will then push east, bringing
gusty southeasterly winds and moderate rain.

By the end of the week, Guidance splits on the Bering low. The
European model is the largest outlier, holding the Bering ridge
much farther west through Friday and Saturday while digging
another trough south from northern Kamchatka into the Alaskan
Peninsula and Gulf between Wednesday and Friday. That trough would
deepen into a southern Gulf low on Saturday after interacting
with another Pacific system. Most other models keep the original
Bering low and its upper level trough as the dominate feature,
tracking the surface east along the Aleutian Chain through
Saturday. If that solution happens, gusty south to southeast winds
and frontal rain would shift from the Bering and Southwest into
Southcentral Alaska Friday into Saturday, with the heaviest rain
focused along the Northern to Northeast Gulf coast and interior
Southcentral remaining drier in the latter half of the week.

-DD


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Very
light drizzle will remain possible for much of Sunday while the
remnants of a front lift up Cook Inlet and the terminal remains
downstream of broader low pressure system over Southwest Alaska.
Light and variable winds will continue into Monday with the threat
of any LLWS coming to an end this afternoon as southeasterly
winds at around 2000 ft finally weaken.

-BL

&&


$$