815
FXAK68 PAFC 170145
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
545 PM AKDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday)...

Currently, cooler temperatures are present across Southcentral.
This is due to cloudy skies resultant from a marine air layer that
is prevalent in the lower levels of the atmosphere. This layer
will slowly dissipate into the evening as winds become gusty. The
originator of those gusty winds is a front that will push into
Southcentral early Tuesday morning from an inverted trough.
Precipitation chances will first increase along the Southcentral
coastline, then into Anchorage, the Mat-Su Valley, and Kodiak
Island by Tuesday afternoon. The Copper River Basin will remain on
the dry side, but a small chance of isolated thunderstorms
remains due to warm temperatures. Thunderstorms will be less
likely in the Susitna Valley due to the influence of the front.
The aforementioned gusty winds will be in the form of gap winds
out of the Turnagain Arm into Anchorage, and gusty winds into
Palmer.

As the inverted trough moves eastward, drier conditions will make
their way back into Southcentral by Wednesday. Temperatures will
be allowed to warm to upper 60s and lower 70s in most areas. Wind
speeds will become light and variable. Sea breezes will occur
along the Kenai Peninsula and Valdez. Weak easterly waves will
continue to push into the Copper River Basin and the Susitna
Valley, so chances for thunderstorms will remain into Thursday.
High pressure builds in on Thursday and so, the warmer and drier
conditions will continue across Southcentral.

-JAR

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula currently sit in a col
of high pressure between broad low pressure in the northern Bering
Sea and Gulf of Alaska. This is bringing clearer skies and warmer
temperatures to the region this afternoon ahead of an upper level
easterly wave rotating in from the Gulf tomorrow. Warm surface
temperatures ahead of this feature will promote favorable
environments for thunderstorm development as the wave brings in
ample moisture and increased instability. Chances are high that
we`ll see some lightning tomorrow afternoon and evening from the
Kuskokwim Valley down to Bristol Bay. The best chances will be
between Aniak and Lime Village, north. A slightly more stable
atmosphere will return to Southwest on Wednesday before
thunderstorm chances kick up again on Thursday afternoon.

Further west, low clouds and fog continue to plague the eastern
and central Bering Sea. A North Pacific low will lift up towards
the Western and Central Aleutians by Wednesday afternoon, bringing
gale-force gusts and moderate rain as it tracks east through
Thursday.


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

Much of the long term has good, broad scale agreement as an upper
ridge of high pressure for the north-central part of the state
remains in place as a large, upper level low encompasses much of
the eastern Gulf. With daytime heating and a reinforced easterly
flow, this is a good convective setup for storms for the northern
Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin for at least the first part
of the period. There is fair confidence that the upper level
dynamics for the west should allow for a series of shortwaves to
rotate off of a main system south of the Aleutians beginning
Friday, which could cut into the ridge and cause it to lift as the
waves move eastward. Mid to late period, more of an Omega
blocking pattern takes over across the region with upper troughing
in the west and ridging extending northward from the Gulf into
Southcentral. Overall, temperature and precipitation anomalies
from the global models suggest that most areas of the east will
stay warmer and some areas wetter than average, while the west
could become cooler and wetter than average due to lows tracking
across the Aleutians and Bering.

-AM

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...The persistent marine layer is still bringing in some
lower clouds to the airport this afternoon, though they have not
generally been as low as yesterday. This marine layer should get
largely displaced after midnight as a Turnagain Arm winds moves
over the airport and helps push out the marine air. This will all
happen due to an easterly wave that will move over the region
tomorrow morning. Anchorage is just on the edge of the expected
precipitation so there may be some light rain Tuesday morning into
early afternoon, but it is not expected to be very heavy. There
will remain a chance for some MVFR ceilings through the TAF period
due to either the marine layer or precipitation.

&&


$$