260
FXAK68 PAFC 021340
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
540 AM AKDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Sunday night)...

The cold upper level trough that brought snowfall to portions of
Southcentral yesterday is centered over the central Copper River
Basin early this morning. It is continuing to bring some snow to
the eastern Copper Basin while areas west of this low have seen
the precipitation cease. However, the low level moisture left in
the wake of the snow and melted snow is helping to keep some low
to mid-level clouds from the Susitna Valley, through the Matanuska
Valley and Anchorage, eastward into the Copper Basin. These
clouds are expected to dissipate as the morning wears on, but
there remain a chance they stick around a little longer where they
can pack up along the front range of the Chugach and Talkeetna
Mountains. After the clouds dissipate, there should be some good
sunshine for most of the region this afternoon with transient high
pressure over Southwest Alaska that will edge into Southcentral
before the next low pressure system moves in.

The next low can be seen on satellite as the wave to the south-
southwest of Kodiak Island early this morning. GOES-18 Airmass
imagery shows a Potential Vorticity anomaly moving into this wave
from the west (seen as the orange hue in the Airmass enhancement)
which will feed into the low and strengthen it as it moves toward
the Gulf. This will first affect Kodiak Island with northeasterly
gales and a round of rainfall through the weekend. A large swath
of precipitation associated with this system then lifts towards
the northern Gulf coast through Saturday afternoon. A gale force
barrier jet is also expected to set up along the northern Gulf
coast, and gales should be located in southern Cook Inlet and
Shelikof Strait as this system draws closer to the coast Saturday
morning through Saturday afternoon. Coastal ridging will set up
along the Gulf coast prior to this system`s arrival, which in turn
will most likely increase gap winds for the Turnagain Arm, Knik
River Valley, and Copper River Basin.

EZ/AM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

An active weather pattern across the Bering Sea contrasted by a
relatively inactive pattern over Southwest Alaska continues today
and into the weekend. A broad, elongated low pressure system south
of the Alaska Peninsula continues to promote easterly flow across
the Bering, and offshore flow over Southwest Alaska. These gusty
easterly winds over the Bristol Bay and Alaska Peninsula will
diminish today into Saturday as the aforementioned elongated low
weakens and exits into the Gulf of Alaska by the mid-weekend. Over
Southwest, the cooler temperatures that have settled over the
area will slowly warm as the offshore flow weakens and the next
low pressures system enters the western Bering.

Speaking of, a new stronger low pressure system entering the
western Bering Sea will spread a potent front across the Western
Aleutians by this afternoon. The front will push a wave of
initially southerly winds and light-to-moderate rainfall across
the Aleutians, reaching Shemya by this afternoon, Adak by late
tonight, and Unalaska by late Saturday morning. However, behind
the front, the low pressure center will follow-up, bringing a
strong push of westerly gusty winds across the Western Aleutians,
with gusts expected to reach 60 mph over Adak. By the time the low
center reaches Unalaska, the westerly gusty wind corridor is
expected to remain, but is less likely to be as strong, with wind
gusts reaching near 45 mph late Sunday morning and afternoon.
Expect widespread rainfall associated with this low as it sweeps
the southern Bering similarly to the previous low track. Areas of
isolated thunderstorms embedded within the front and low center as
it tracks eastward.

-CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

The seasonably active weather pattern continues through the long
term period, beginning with broad troughing spanning across the
eastern Bering Sea to the southern Mainland early next week. A
weakening surface low shifts into the Gulf Monday into Tuesday,
with southerly flow and ample moisture keeping the eastern Kenai
and northern Gulf coast wet through midweek as the low slowly
tracks east across the northern Gulf. For the Alaska Peninsula,
Bristol Bay, and inland Southcentral locations, expect unsettled
and showery weather to continue through early next week as weak
shortwaves rotate through the upper level flow. Additionally,
gusty northerly winds enhanced by cold air advection on the back
side of the low will be possible across the eastern Aleutian
Islands and AKPen, especially through favored gaps and passes.

By mid to late next week, a potentially more impactful storm is
expected across the Bering as the next Kamchatka shortwave
interacts with tropical energy lifting north out of the North
Pacific. Widespread rainfall and strengthening winds are expected
to reach the western Bering and Aleutian Islands Wednesday into
Thursday before spreading east across the rest of the Bering and
Aleutian Chain through the remainder of the long term period.
Significant model spread remains in the evolution of this storm as
the two systems interact in the North Pacific and Bering Sea, but
strong winds and periods of heavy rain are beginning to look
increasingly likely by late next week across the Bering and
Aleutians.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...While precipitation came to an end during the overnight
hours across Anchorage, clouds continue to linger over the
terminal and portions of Cook Inlet within weak down-inlet flow.
There remains a chance for MVFR ceilings to develop through ~16z.
Otherwise, VFR skies and ceilings should persist into tonight.

BL

&&
$$