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FXAK68 PAFC 110214
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
614 PM AKDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Please see the Southwest Alaska section below for information
regarding Typhoon Halong.

For Southcentral: A tranquil Friday afternoon and evening is
expected across Southcentral. A wet holiday weekend is likely
though as multiple fronts move across the region.

Widespread fog and frost were reported this morning across
Southcentral as light winds and clear skies allowed temperatures
to range from the lower 20s in the Mat-Su and Copper River Basin
to the lower and upper thirties elsewhere in Southcentral. These
calm conditions and more October temperatures prevailed today as
highs ranged from the upper 30s to lower 50s across Southcentral;
coolest in the Copper River Basin.

This evening, a weak front moves over Kodiak Island resulting in
increased cloud cover and scattered rain showers overnight. Cloud
cover also increases across the Kenai Peninsula this evening with
this front with most of its energy and moisture pushing into the
Gulf of Alaska toward Prince William Sound Saturday afternoon. A
second, more robust warm front moves through the Kodiak Island and
the Kenai Peninsula with isolated rain tomorrow night. This robust front
brings warm air surging into Southcentral Sunday. Additionally,
this second front brings steady rain to the Anchorage Bowl and
Mat-Su Valleys by Sunday afternoon into Monday. Though a strong
surge of warm air accompany this precipitation, higher elevations
and sheltered locations of Copper River Basin could begin as a
snow/rain mix Sunday morning before changing to all rain in the
afternoon.

Easterly winds on Sunday will be strong through the Barren
Islands and Turnagain Arm with widespread small craft to gales
expected. Additionally, pressure gradients will cause increased
winds through the gaps and passes in Southcentral this weekend.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph for the higher elevations, including the
Anchorage Hillside, are likely on Sunday.

-Johnston

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Monday night)...

Key messages:

 - The extratropical remnants of former Typhoon Halong will cross
   the central Aleutians into the Bering Saturday evening and
   rapidly re-intensify into a powerful Hurricane force low as it
   heads towards Saint Matthew on Sunday.

 - High Wind Warnings are now in effect for the Pribilofs and all
   of the Kuskokwim Delta from Saturday evening through much of
   Sunday. Gusts up to 90 mph or higher will be possible for the
   Pribilofs and parts of the Kuskokwim Delta as Halong passes to
   the west.

 - A Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect for the Kuskokwim
   Delta Coast Saturday evening through Sunday evening.
   Significant storm surge of 3 to 6 feet above the normal highest
   tide line is expected with multiple high tidal cycles from
   late Saturday night into Sunday evening.

Discussion:

A stacked, weakening low spinning off to the east of Kamchatka is
continuing to push its occluded front across the Bering Sea this
evening, with the front now approaching the Southwest coastline.
Strong southerly winds up to gale force are still affecting parts
of the Alaska Peninsula ahead of the front, with gusty southeast
winds also beginning to pick up across the Kuskokwim Delta. Rain
moving along the front is also beginning to push onshore near
western parts of Bristol Bay and most of the Kuskokwim Delta. The
front itself is expected to dissipate quickly as it heads into
Southwest later tonight. To the west, gusty southerly winds closer
to the low are persisting behind the front across much of the
Bering and Aleutian Chain closer to the parent low.

Otherwise, nearly all attention continues to center on what is
now former Typhoon Halong moving east across the open North
Pacific. This storm is poised to arc north around the stalled out
low near Kamchatka, and should cross over the Aleutians as a
strengthening gale force low by about noontime Saturday. From
there, Halong`s remnant center will undergo very rapid re-
intensification as it begins to phase strongly with a shortwave
trough pivoting into the western Bering Sea and moves into the
left exit region of a 160 kt upper level jet streak nosing into
the eastern Bering around the same time. Halong will become a
powerful Hurricane force low with central surface pressure
bottoming out around 950 to 955 mb as it heads north-northeast
towards Saint Matthew Island from late Saturday night into Sunday
morning.

The first area to see potential for significant impacts from
Halong will be the Pribilofs, where a sting jet could move
directly overhead as winds top out at or near Hurricane force
late Saturday night. Wind gusts as the center passes just off to
the west could become extreme, perhaps reaching or exceeding 90
mph as winds peak during Saturday overnight into the early morning
hours on Sunday. Large waves quickly building near and after the
onset of strong winds will also be a concern, with seas of up to
25 to 30 feet expected early Sunday morning in the waters
surrounding the Pribilofs. Large breaking waves reaching the
shoreline of Saint George and Saint Paul could lead to damage
along the shoreline in addition to the threat of damage from the
extreme wind gusts.

On Sunday, Halong`s center will move quickly north into Saint
Matthew, maintaining a corridor of Hurricane force winds that will
move up from the Pribilofs to the waters between Nunivak Island
and Saint Matthew. Concerns will quickly shift from the Pribilofs
to the Kuskokwim Delta as the center progresses north, with
potential for extreme wind gusts of up to 90 mph to reach
Mekoryuk, Toksook Bay and Tununak as the center passes to the west
starting early Sunday morning and persisting through Sunday
evening. Wind gusts farther inland towards Bethel will not be as
intense, but will still be as strong as 60 to 75 mph, and still
enough to cause damage to property. Confidence continues to
increase that the storm will track slightly farther east than what
was anticipated over the past couple days, and the outlook for
coastal flood inundation has become considerably more concerning
as a result of this track shift. Moderate to major impacts from a
storm surge of around 3 to 6 feet above the normal highest tide
line are expected for communities immediately along the coast as
the high winds arrive starting early on Sunday, including Kipnuk,
Kwigillingok, Kongiganak and Toksook Bay. This surge has the
potential to rival the water levels observed during the impactful
fall storm system that affected much of the Kuskokwim Delta Coast
in August of 2024. In addition, strong southwesterly winds could
send a surge of water up the mouth of Kuskokwim River, potentially
leading to flood impacts as far north as Bethel. Please see
additional information listed in any current warnings or watches
in affect for your area for more specific possible impacts for
your location.

From Sunday night into Monday, things will quickly quiet down for
the time being as Halong exits into North Slope and Beaufort Sea.
The weak low in place near Kamchatka will continue to drift east
into the Bering, keeping a showery and mildly unsettled pattern in
place for the start of the week.

-AS

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

The long term forecast begins on Tuesday with weak ridging
building into the Gulf of Alaska. This means that lower chances
for rain and decreased wind speeds will follow. Wednesday will
have a front push into the Gulf from the west, which will allow
for heavy rainfall along the coast as well as gusty winds. The
Anchorage and Mat-Su Valley regions could see downsloping winds
and therefore, lower chances for rainfall. These gusty winds may
push into Prince William Sound, and depending on the track of the
front, could bring strong winds into Anchorage. This scenario has
been showing up in more guidance as time has passed, so it very
well could occur next Wednesday. However, uncertainty remains, so
more refinement will be done in the coming days. Quasi-zonal flow
sets up on Thursday, allowing winds and rain to decrease
intensity. However, lingering rainfall is possible in higher
elevations and along the coast. Friday sees another ridge build
into the Gulf, which would again calm winds down and decrease
chances for rainfall all across Southcentral.

The Bering continues to be active next week as yet another low is
forecasted to move into the Bering from the North Pacific Tuesday
into Wednesday. This low has had much uncertainty in its track
with every day showing sometimes radically different tracks
depending on which models are looked at. The current thinking is
that this low will take a path similar to Halong`s track except
further east with its center eventually moving over Nunivak
Island. This means impacts could be felt further east including
Bristol Bay. Gusty gale force to storm force winds are possible
for the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay. Communities in the
coastal Kuskokwim Delta may see more coastal flooding impacts
depending on wind direction, wind speed, and storm surge. It is
still too early to understand the full potential of these impacts,
but coastal flooding is possible. Heavy rainfall will also
accompany this low. Zonal flow will set up after the passage of
the low, so a break in active weather is expected for Thursday.
However, it looks like yet another low will move into the Bering
on Friday, potentially repeating the same story as before. This is
quite far out, so the evolution of this event is still very
uncertain. It will be important to monitor the forecast for next
weeks events for updates.

-JAR

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through the
TAF period.


&&


$$