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FXAK68 PAFC 090054
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
354 PM AKST Sat Nov 8 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An upper level low is sitting over the western Gulf of Alaska
this afternoon with scattered showers moving from east to west
across the northern Gulf and Prince William Sound. Showers will
gradually diminish through the rest of the this evening and
tonight. Shallow, patchy fog was also reported across Anchorage
and the Matanuska Valley today and this will likely stay around
into tonight.

High pressure will begin to move into Southcentral for Sunday.
Anywhere that is clear could start off as fog, especially for
communities from northern Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and the
MatSu. To the Copper River Basin, temperatures are expected to be
in the single digits for the low, but could plummet further if
skies are clear. Northerly winds are expected to increase,
especially through the gaps along the coast. Thompson Pass will
also be gusty with wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Any loose, dry snow
could start to drift and visibility reductions are possible.

The next low to move into the western Gulf of Alaska is expected
later Sunday. Run to run model consistency is still poor, but
overall seems to be trending south enough to mainly focus
precipitation for Kodiak Island and the coastal areas of the Gulf.
Gale force winds above 34 kt/40 mph appears likely near the low
and along the front still. However, shifts in the position of the
low at a given time is the primary challenge. Precipitation type
for Kodiak may begin a snow later Sunday afternoon/evening but
then transition towards rain overnight into Monday. Most areas
along the Gulf coast will also see a similar transition Monday as
the low moves east and shortly after the onset time of
precipitation. Homer, Valdez, and Portage, while close to the
water, should stay cold enough for snow. Precipitation chances and
winds should diminish for Tuesday and the weather is expected to
quiet down as the low continues to move east.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A deep low pressure system in the western Bering Sea is currently
sending a front across the Pribilof Islands where wind gusts over
50 mph are being recorded. This storm will continue weakening as
it heads east and is set to move into the Southwest AK coast late
tonight. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast as gusty southeasterly winds coincide with
high tide tonight, elevating water levels 2 to 3 ft above the
normal highest tide line. This could lead to flooding of low lying
areas and localized areas of erosion through Sunday morning.
While winds and storm surge will diminish Sunday afternoon, high
tide Sunday night may limit water drainage and keep water levels
elevated into Monday morning.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from 1 AM to 3 PM
Sunday for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast/Nunivak Island and the
Western Capes with up to 4 inches of accumulated snowfall and wind
gusts as high as 50 mph creating potentially dangerous blowing
snow conditions. Behind the front, light waves of showery precip
will move over the Kuskokwim Delta Coast through tomorrow night.
Light to moderate precipitation and gusty southerly winds will
also be present through favored gaps and passes of the Alaska
Peninsula tonight.

A shortwave trough driving down the backside of the parent Bering
low will bring a period of enhanced rain showers and gale-force
westerly winds to the Central Aleutians Monday evening. Another
strong low pressure system will push its front into Western
Aleutians Tuesday morning with storm-force gusts and moderate to
heavy rain.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

The main feature to begin the long term period is a broad
longwave trough over the Bering Sea and a large vertically stacked
low slowly moving along the coast of Kamchatka. Its strong high-
end gale to storm force front moving across the western and
central Aleutians early next week will begin to weaken by midweek
as it reaches the Alaska Peninsula and eastern Bering Sea. The
front pushes into the Southwest Alaska coast and inland Wednesday
into Thursday, spreading light snow across much of Southwest
Alaska. As warmer air pushes in behind the front, a transition to
a rain/snow mix along the coast will be possible.

Downstream of the system in the Bering, upper level ridging over
Southcentral looks to keep the weather relatively quiet to begin
the period. Models are hinting at a weak low spinning up in the
northern Gulf for Wednesday into Thursday, though confidence
remains low at this time on exact timing and placement. This
system will bring the potential for snowfall to the northern Gulf
coast as well as portions of inland Southcentral as what is left
of the front pushing across Southwest Alaska reaches Southcentral
and provides additional upper level support. Model agreement
continues to improve on a stronger low lifting out of the North
Pacific and tracking towards the eastern Aleutians and AKPen by
Friday. Widespread precipitation and gusty winds are expected to
accompany this low for the eastern Aleutians, AKPen, and Kodiak
Island as it continues into the Gulf for next weekend. Further
west, yet another low and frontal system enters the western
Bering by the beginning of next weekend, bringing another round
of precipitation and elevated winds for the western Aleutians.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...IFR to LIFR conditions are expected to continue through the
overnight period. Current cigs are LIFR with unrestricted vis.
Some patchy open pockets may occur, but conditions are expected to
deteriorate as the sun falls below the horizon. CIGS will remain
LIFR and vis is expected to become IFR as the night presses on.
There is uncertainty as to how dense the fog will become, but it
is not out of the realm of possibility to see conditions drop for
cigs and vis.

&&


$$