832
FXAK68 PAFC 031309
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
Issued by National Weather Service Juneau AK
409 AM AKST Tue Nov 3 2026

..SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3: Today through Friday morning)...

A frontal system is continuing to progress north across the
Gulf this morning, now situated to the south of Middleton
Island. Gale Force winds with Storm Force gusts are starting
to pick up ahead of the front, mainly near the Barren Islands
and east to areas south of the Hinchinbrook Entrance. Rain is
starting to spread north into much of the coastline, including
most of Prince William Sound and the southeastern Kenai
Peninsula.  Gusty northeast winds are also picking up across
a good portion of the Kenai Peninsula, Mat Valley and Chugach
Mountains. This strong cross-barrier flow is keeping areas in
the lee of the mountains mostly dry due to downslope flow,
with steady precipitation remaining concentrated along the
coast.

Looking to the outlook for the next several days, things will
remain unsettled overall, especially over the open Gulf waters.
A triple point low already starting to develop on satellite
imagery over the southern Gulf will continue to arc northwest
today, enhancing the front as it does so. A barrier jet is
anticipated to develop along the frontal boundary as the front
is pulled closer to the coast, resulting in a corridor of Storm
Force sustained winds stretching roughly between the Barrens
and Middleton Island. Winds will then quickly diminish as the
front reaches the coast and begins to move inland tonight into
Wednesday morning, while the new low also reaches the coast near
the northern AKPen and begins to rapidly weaken over land. A
potent shortwave rotating north and west out of the Gulf into
Southcentral Wednesday morning could briefly help areas of light
rain spill over the mountains into the western Kenai Peninsula,
Anchorage and Mat Valley. Temperatures near the surface around
this time will be very close to freezing, so there is some
potential (around 30% chance) of seeing some light freezing
rain in places that stay at or below freezing as the shortwave
moves across on Wednesday morning.

By late Wednesday into Thursday, a new system will begin to move
north into the eastern Gulf, sending a renewed round of strong
Gale Force north to northeast winds into much of the central
and southern Gulf.  Areas of rain and high elevation snow will
continue along the coast near the eastern Kenai Peninsula and
Prince William Sound until Thursday morning, then taper of by
Thursday afternoon as flow shifts from southeasterly to
northeasterly ahead of the next incoming Gulf low.

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday morning)...

Satellite imagery this morning shows broad troughing over the
Bering with a dissipating front over Southwest Alaska and two
centers of low pressure; one over the eastern Aleutians and one
in the Bering southwest of Saint Matthew Island. Scattered
showers continue both in Southwest (mainly in the Kilbuck
Mountains and along the Alaska Range) and around the lows in
the Aleutians and Bering. Westerly small-craft to gale force
winds are seen through the Bering through the eastern Aleutians.

The low over the eastern Aleutians continues east and phases
into a developing low along the frontal boundary in the western
Gulf this afternoon. The gulf low begins to occlude and weaken
this evening as it moves into the southern Cook Inlet. It
continues to weaken as it moves through Southwest Alaska
tomorrow and into the northern Bering on Thursday. Chances of
precipitation increase this afternoon for the northern Alaska
Peninsula, the Kilbuck Mountains, Bristol Bay and places north
along the western Alaska Range. With warmer air still moving
in, elevations below 2000 feet remain mostly above freezing
and will see rain, with a small chance (less than 20 percent)
for light snow to mix in overnight. For the Alaska Peninsula,
northwest winds will increase the chances for rain on the Bering
side as winds upslope on the mountains. Shower activity spreads
across the rest of Southwest tomorrow as the low continues
northwest. Though coverage decreases, some showers may persist
through Thursday, with highest chances in the Kilbuck Mountains
and around Bristol Bay down through the Alaska Peninsula.

The low in the Bering remains mostly stationary through Thursday
morning as it slowly weakens. Showers as well as westerly small
craft winds will persist throughout the Bering south to the
Aleutians. With cold air from Russia streaming in on the west
side of the low, temperatures in the western Bering and Aleutians
look to decrease to near freezing. This will allow some light snow
to mix into showers from Shemya to Atka by Wednesday morning and
continue into Thursday. The low moves to the central Bering on
Thursday as a ridge builds over Kamchatka. With a tightening
pressure gradient and continued cold air advection west of the
low, a swath of westerly gale-force winds looks to move through
the western Bering, reaching the central Aleutians by late
Thursday evening. Showery activity will continue throughout the
Bering and Aleutians Thursday.

PA

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

There is a high likelihood that a broad trough extending over
both the Bering and Gulf of Alaska will consolidate over the North
Pacific/Gulf of Alaska later this weekend. High pressure has
persisted over much of mainland Alaska and this should continue if
not strengthen through the long term forecast period, helping to
keep inland conditions on the dry and cooler side.

Offshore, northerly flow should become increasingly common across
the Bering as a result of the shift in the trough`s axis over the
Gulf of Alaska. The net effect being a higher chance for
convective showers over the Bering along with northerly gap winds
through the Aleutians. Over the Gulf of Alaska, one area of low
pressure and its front will be on the decline as they push into
the Southeast Alaska coast. A second area of low pressure will be
lifting northward from the North Pacific late in the period (Sun),
but models are in moderate agreement that this area of low
pressure will remain mostly confined to the eastern Gulf. The
exception being along the coast from just east of Prince William
Sound to just east of the Copper River Delta on Sunday where
scattered shower chances will be higher.

-BL

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. winds
at the surface will remain out of the north, potentially gusting
up to 20 kts or so at times.  Strong southeasterly winds aloft
will cause a persistent threat for LLWS, with the highest chance
to see wind shear focused towards the afternoon and evening hours
today.

&&


$$