281
FXAK68 PAFC 090101
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
401 PM AKST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

Weather is slowly becoming less active as the Arctic trough dips
south. However, continued threats for strong winds and
dangerously low wind chills will linger through Tuesday. Winds
will begin to weaken later today, but remain gusty into the
overnight hours. Blowing snow will subside with decreasing winds.
Temperatures will become even colder through the week as a second
cold air mass descends into Southcentral.

...Active Warnings and Advisories...

- A High Wind Warning remains in effect for the Matanuska Valley
  through 6AM Tuesday for 35 to 40 mph winds with gusts up to 75
  mph.

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Northeast Kodiak
  Island including Kodiak City until 9PM tonight for snow and blowing
  snow.

- A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Copper River
  Basin until 4PM Tuesday for very cold wind chills as low as 40
  to 50 below.

As mentioned before, the Arctic trough that brought gusty winds
to the Matanuska Valley, Anchorage and Kenai is moving south into
the Gulf. This will allow pressure gradients to loosen and winds
to decrease in strength through Tuesday. In Kodiak Island, chances
for light snow showers will taper off through the evening along
with winds. Thompson Pass winds will slowly diminish through
tomorrow, but will remain elevated through the week. After this
event is over, another round of Arctic air dips into Southcentral
for the rest of the week. Though the risk of wind chill
diminishes, ambient temperatures will dip as low as the wind
chills were during the event, so cold related risks will remain.
This cold is not showing any signs of ending with this pattern
remaining for the foreseeable future. A weaker shortwave will move
into Southcentral Wednesday night into Thursday, allowing for an
increase in gap winds in marine areas.

-JAR

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Thursday evening)...

Cold temperatures and dry conditions will continue across the
Southwestern Mainland through much of this week. The gusty
conditions that brought instances of blowing snow across the coast
and Nelson Island will continue to abate through the rest of
today and this week. However, cold wind chills of 20 to 30 below
zero will be commonplace this week as the cold airmass is in firm
control. The coldest of the apparent temperatures will be felt
during nighttime and early mornings. A shortwave dropping in from
the north may clip northern portions of the Kuskokwim Valley
Thursday night into Friday morning bringing very light snow to the
area.

The next front/low combinations enter the western Bering Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday morning, bringing a round of rainfall and
potentially some gale-force winds to the Western Aleutians.
Models are in fairly good agreement on the idea that the system
remains mainly confined to the Western Aleutians and the western
Bering as the strong upper level ridge remains centered over the
Aleutian Chain through midweek.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The long term starts out with a deep blocking high over the Bering
Sea that will amplify as a strong upper level shortwave and arctic
airmass drops south over the state. This will lead to more of the
same conditions for the southern Mainland with potential for high
winds out of all of the north-south oriented mountain passes and
coastal gaps from the AKPen east into Southcentral. The main
weather threat will be cold wind chills and ambient temperatures
in addition to the strong winds. Virtually the entire forecast
area will remain dry (possibly for a few more weeks), but some
light snow is possible along the northern faces of the Alaska
Range, Chugach and Kodiak Island. Some forecast guidance indicates
the surface low(s) may retrograde back towards the east on
Monday, which would bring some light snow, but overall forecast
confidence in this feature is low and the pobabilities of this are
lower. Most things point to continued cold and breezy, with areas
of high winds possible.

-CJ

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions with gusty northerly winds will continue
as stiff northerly winds come down the Knik Arm and clip the west
side of Anchorage. Winds decrease significantly going eastward,
such that there may be a noticeable difference in speed on the
west side of the terminal vs. east side at times. Winds diminish
after 09/09Z, becoming 10kts or less after 09/15Z.


&&


$$