027
FXAK68 PAFC 231247
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
447 AM AKDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3: Today through Saturday)...

The forecast remains on track, with few changes to the previous
package. The most notable change has been the issuance of a Flood
Advisory for creeks and tributaries along and east of the Parks
Highway between Willow and Talkeetna Spur Road.

Key Messages:

1) A Wind Advisory remains in effect through Noon AKDT Thursday
for the Anchorage Hillside and Upper Eagle River for gusts up to
50 to 65 mph.

2) A Wind Advisory is in effect for the lower elevations of Eagle
River, Anchorage, and Eklutna from 1AM AKDT Thursday to Noon AKDT
Thursday for expected gusts of 35 to 50 mph.

3) A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Western Kenai Peninsula
along and near Cook Inlet for wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph. 8 to 12
feet waves expected moving northward up the Cook Inlet.

4) NEW: A Flood Advisory is now in effect for Willow Creek, Ship
Creek, Kashwitna River, Montana Creek, and their tributaries from
the Parks Highway East between Willow and the junction of the
Talkeetna Spur Road. Otherwise, Flood Advisories remain in effect
for the Yentna river and along Oilwell Road near the Kroto and
Moose Creeks.

5) Flood Watches remain in effect for the Susitna Valley and
Hatcher Pass due to excessive rainfall and continuing into mid
week.


Discussion:

Moderate to heavy rain continues through early this morning as a
potent low moves into the Western Alaska interior and pushes its
front eastward across Southcentral. This last hurrah will be the
most crucial time period for wind and heavy rain/flooding
concerns, as rain rates for Mat-Su and Anchorage will be greatest
during this time. With all the rain that rivers and soils have had
to absorb from the past few storms, we could see rapid rises on
already swollen creeks and rivers, especially for Susitna Valley
where 3-day rain totals are currently hovering between 2.25-4
inches. For the Anchorage area, the combination of wet soils and
strong, southeasterly winds could also lead to downed trees and
powerlines this morning.

The good news is that by this afternoon, things will begin to
rapidly improve for most places as a robust upper trough moves
directly overhead and then continues at a quick pace into the
AlCan Border and Southeast Alaska. As it does so, rain will
rapidly clear out from west to east, though showers will likely
linger across higher elevations and parts of the Copper Basin
through tonight. Meanwhile, south to southeast winds through
favored gaps and along the Cook Inlet will abruptly shut off by
midday as the coastal ridge swiftly erodes and as low level flow
shifts from southerly to westerly on the trailing side of the
trough. Farther south, strong and gusty westerlies will set up
between the trough as it skirts along the northern Gulf Coast and
a ridge rapidly building over the eastern Bering. Sustained Gale
Force winds will develop across the northern and eastern Gulf by
Thursday afternoon and persist through much of the day on Friday.
Offshore gap winds through Resurrection Bay, Passage Canal and
Chiniak Bay could cause Gale Force gusts as well, mainly between
Thursday night and Friday afternoon.

Aside from some lingering offshore winds, expect a welcome break
in the rain and clouds for the start of the weekend, with ample
sun and highs climbing back into the 60s and 70s for both Friday
and Saturday. However, one thing to watch will be overnight lows
from Friday night into Saturday morning, as clearing skies and
very light to no wind could lead to very effective radiational
cooling, and the potential for lows early Saturday morning to dip
into the low 40s to perhaps even the high 30s in some areas.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday morning)...

The Bering low that brought gusty winds, rough seas, and moderate
to heavy rain along the Southwest coast will continue moving
inland of Norton Sound this morning. Steady rain has largely ended
along the coast with some showers left behind. Inland along the
Western Alaska Range and interior portions of Bristol Bay continue
to see steady showers through much of today. Gusty westerly to
northwesterly winds will also continue through much Southwest
today with the majority of areas seeing to 25 to 35 mph gusts.
Showers finally taper off along the Western Alaska Range through
Friday morning with everyone across Southwest witnessing a dry
Friday with lighter winds as well.

The Bering Sea, however, will remain somewhat active through the
short-term period. An east-to-west oriented stream of moisture,
associated from a low pressure system just south of the southern
Kamchatka coast this morning, will lift north through the Bering
today. Warm tropical air will move into Shemya from the south
through today as this moisture stream advances slowly
northeastward. Showers make it the Pribilof Islands by late this
morning to the early afternoon hours today. Scattered showers also
continue for Shemya by late tonight into Friday morning and will
be on and off through the rest of the short-term.

There is uncertainty with the Bering moisture stream and how it
progressed into Saturday and Sunday. Guidance is struggling on
how to handle an upper-level low situated by Saint Lawrence Island
by early Saturday morning. Some solutions want to have more
interaction with embedded waves traversing the northern side of
the amplifying central Bering ridge, like the European and
Canadian guidance, and some solutions present less interaction
like the GFS and NAM. Until details become more clear, confidence
in the Mainland Southwest forecast will remain somewhat lower than
average. Where confidence is high is that any system for the
weekend across Southwest does not look impactful; it is more a
matter of who might get wet or not. Confidence remains high that
the Pribilof Islands and southeast to the southern Alaska
Peninsula will see on and off rain showers at times Friday through
Saturday and into early Sunday. Stay tuned for forecast updates
regarding how the area of moisture evolves in the Bering will
further evolve Friday through Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

By Sunday, the beginning of the long term is characterized by
high amplitude meridional flow created by a vertically stacked
ridge extending from the North Pacific and over the Bering and an
arctic trough digging southward over central Alaska. The global
models are in very good agreement in regards to smaller scale
details; for instance, with the digging trough axis taking a more
neutral tilt, precipitation is expected to make a return to
Southcentral Alaska. Out west across the Bering, the consensus is
that a series of Kamchatka fronts will lift northward across the
Bering. There is fair agreement of the vertically stacked ridge
breaking down over the Aleutians and Bering Monday into Tuesday,
allowing for a more west to east progression of low pressure
systems to move more closely along the Aleutian Chain. At the same
time, a weak surface low looks to form in the Gulf, which will
help to reinforce rain chances along coastal Southcentral and
perhaps inland areas as well. Temperatures are on track to stay
below normal for late July for all of the Southcentral Alaska due
to rain chances returning, and above normal across the Bering Sea
being stuck under a ridge.

-AM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds gusting to 35 to 40 kt
continue through the early morning. At the same time, moderate
rain will keep ceilings below 5000 ft, with occasional drops to
MVFR in heavier showers. Still, ceilings will likely remain
predominantly VFR as gusty surface winds help to keep the lower
atmosphere from becoming saturated.

By late morning, winds shift to south/southwesterly and gradually
weaken through the afternoon. Rain will also taper off by mid to
late morning as drier air moves in, allowing ceilings to improve
to above 5000 ft. Winds 10 kt or less and no rain are expected at
the terminal from this afternoon through Friday, though there may
be vicinity showers through this evening.

&&


$$