634
FXAK68 PAFC 110036
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
436 PM AKDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Saturday night)...

Afternoon satellite shows areas of clear skies across parts of
Southcentral as high pressure continues to ridge into the region
from the west. Higher clouds are moving into the Susitna Valley
and Cook Inlet regions as upper-level moisture rides over the top
of the incoming ridge, but don`t expect any precipitation from
these clouds. High pressure will result in mild weather conditions
through Friday. Current winds gusting out of the Kamishak Gap and
through the Barren Islands will diminish through early tomorrow
morning. Likewise, winds across Southcentral will also relax for
the next couple of days leaving little to talk about in the short
term. Clear skies Thursday night will allow for temperatures to
cool a few degrees lower than on Wednesday night. Parts of east
Anchorage may see morning lows in the mid to upper 30s, especially
closer to Campbell Creek, while across the Copper River Basin
morning lows will be near or even a degree or two below freezing.

Widespread clouds and a chance for precipitation then return on
Saturday as the remnants of a front, moving through Southwest
Alaska, lifts into Southcentral. At the same time the front is
moving overhead, a shortwave trough is forecast to track along the
front and eject into interior Alaska. Expectations are for light
rain to expand into the Susitna and Matanuska Valleys late
Saturday morning. There is uncertainty in how far south
precipitation will spread, but it looks like light rain could
expand as far south as Anchorage, with the greatest confidence in
rain developing over the Anchorage and Eagle River hillsides. As
energy from the upper level wave continues eastward over the
second half of Saturday, rain will also translate into the Copper
River Basin before coming to an end Saturday night. Locations that
are missed by rain over the weekend are still expected to see
increasing clouds on Saturday.


-BL

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: This afternoon through Sunday afternoon)...

Key Messages:

* A strong front moves across the Bering Sea and Aleutians through
  the end of the week, impacting Kuskokwim Delta starting today.
  It weakens as it moves across the rest of Southwest Alaska and
  the Alaska Peninsula from Friday into Saturday.

* Elevated water levels are expected along the Kuskokwim River and
  Kuskokwim Delta coast today and Friday. While flooding is
  unlikely, higher water levels may still impact activities along
  Kuskokwim River, Johnson River, and the Kuskokwim Delta coast.

* Otherwise, generally warm and humid, with areas of patchy fog
  under the influence of a ridge near the Alaska Peninsula and the
  influx of a warmer and moister air mass.

* Looking ahead to this weekend: Though today`s front will exit to
  the east from Friday through Saturday, the arrival of two back-
  to-back lows will bring a return of active weather this
  weekend.


Discussion:

Currently, a stout upper level ridge is in place over the eastern
Bering, Aleutians, and Southwest Alaska. To the west, a strong
front is located in the far western Bering and Aleutians. This
front is accompanied by southerly gale-force winds and moderate to
heavy rain.

The ridge remains rather stout across Southwest Alaska today
while the Bering front presses slowly eastward. Guidance continues
to favor the ridge resisting the eastward progression of the
front, keeping the strongest winds primarily across the western
and central Bering. Nevertheless, periods of small-craft to gale-
force winds and rain will accompany the front as it advances
across the Aleutians and Bering toward the Pribilof Islands.
Underneath the ridge, some areas of stratus and low fog will
persist across the eastern Bering into Southwest and the Alaska
Peninsula (AKPen). Otherwise the weather continues to be benign.

Beginning tonight, the upper ridge shifts east as the front
continues through the eastern Bering into the Southwest Coast.
Southerly to southwesterly winds increase along the Kuskokwim
Delta coast, with rain spreading into western portions of
Southwest Alaska. The combination of high water moving down the
Kuskokwim River and storm surge moving upriver will likely result
in bankfull conditions for communities along the Kuskokwim and
Johnson Rivers, from Kuskokwim Bay up to the Bethel area. Along
the Kuskokwim Delta coast, gusty onshore winds could also result
in some coastal erosion and minor coastal flooding from Kongiganak
northward through Toksook Bay and Tununak, but this looks
increasingly unlikely as sustained winds remain below 40 mph. A
Hydrologic Outlook remains in effect for these concerns.

Bristol Bay and interior Southwest likely won`t see rain until at
least Friday afternoon. With less clouds and southerly winds
downsloping off the mountains, high temperatures will be around 60
for many locations around Bristol Bay down through the AKPen,
with some mid-60s possible around Pilot Point and Port Heiden.
Though the front continues to weaken as it progresses eastward,
upper level support from shortwaves will allow showers to persist
through Friday night for much of Southwest and the AKPen, with
activity slowly tapering off from west to east.

The front crosses the Alaska Range and moves into Southcentral by
Saturday morning, leaving a mostly zonal-flow regime in its wake.
Temperatures on Saturday look to be mostly near average. Some
isolated showers will linger through the day, with more scattered
showers along the Alaska Range down through the AKPen due to
upsloping winds. Any upper level support with shortwaves will also
maintain lingering showers, though precise timing of shortwaves
is currently unclear. To the west, a weak system looks to move
from the North Pacific to the Central Aleutians on Saturday. This
likely brings additional rain for the central and eastern
Aleutians beginning Saturday morning.

- PA/KC


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

High pressure in the Gulf of Alaska will strengthen and move
eastward early next week in response to a deepening Bering Sea
trough. Through mid-week, the trough will allow for increasing
chances of rainfall and strong winds throughout the Aleutians, the
Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska as the ridge over the Gulf
of Alaska moves across Southcentral. Ahead of the trough`s mid-
week passing, persistent southwest flow across the Aleutians and
into Southwest Alaska will result in continued onshore wind and
rain these areas. Additionally in the wake of the trough`s
passing, weak waves of low pressure will bring reinforcing periods
of increased winds and rain through week`s end despite a general
zonal flow returning to the area.

A drier period for early next week is expected in most of
Southcentral. Rain coverage and strong winds will begin to
increase first in Kodiak and Kenai Peninsula and also in the far
western areas of Southcentral across the Alaska Range. Towards
mid-week, rain and wind begin to cover more of Southcentral
reaching Prince William Sound and the Copper River Basin by the
end of next week.

-Johnston


 &&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the TAF
period.

&&


$$