072
FXAK68 PAFC 061236
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
436 AM AKDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Sunday)...

A North Pacific low is beginning to progress into the western
Gulf of Alaska this morning. Southcentral now sits within a belt
of weak southwesterly flow in between a shortwave ridge moving
over the eastern Gulf and a broad trough stretching across much
of the northern and western Mainland. The Gulf system will also
build a coastal ridge along the north Gulf Coast, allowing for
gusty winds in Anchorage, Palmer, and the Copper River Basin
today. Gusty winds have already started up in a few spots this
morning, including across the west end of Anchorage. Marine
stratus is also beginning to take up more real estate this
morning, now spreading into much of Prince William Sound and
across much of the remainder of the Gulf.

Looking towards the outlook for the rest of today, increasing
cloud cover and cooler air from the north will decrease high
temperatures by around 10 degrees across the board (highs in the
60s). The moisture brought in will allow for chances for showers
in higher elevations and the Susitna Valley. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible, especially over the Talkeetna
Mountains. Some of these storms could drift into the Copper River
Basin north of Glennallen.

For the rest of the weekend and into early next week, troughing
will remain over Southcentral, allowing for continued scattered
showers. Gap winds will gradually decrease and become lighter by
Monday. Chances for thunderstorms will be on the lower side due to
lower instability from Sunday onward. High temperatures will
remain cooler, but will gradually warm through Monday. An upper
trough looks to swing into Southcentral towards the middle of next
week, which could bring rain and cooler temperatures.

-JAR/AS

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday morning)...

Currently, high pressure extends from Kamchatka across much of
the Bering Sea this morning. As a result, areas of low stratus
persist across much of the Bering, the Pribilof Islands, Alaska
Peninsula (AKPEN), and along the Aleutian Chain. South of the
Southern AKPEN, a North Pacific low continues eastward through the
day and approaches the southwestern Gulf of Alaska by this
evening. Precipitation associated with this low is expected to
remain south of the AKPEN and confined to the North Pacific.
Across the southwestern mainland, weak flow through the atmosphere
has allowed low stratus, misty, and foggy conditions to settle in
this morning, particularly across Dillingham, King Salmon,
portions inland Bristol Bay, and Lake Iliamna. Low stratus and fog
across the southwestern mainland should burn off by this
afternoon.

Looking into the forecast, a weak upper-level trough will remain
draped across Mainland Southwest today through Sunday. Weak
embedded shortwaves within the trough will help to kick off
showers each afternoon and evening, especially across Bristol Bay
and along the Western Alaska Range for today. Greater coverage of
showers will be Sunday as a stronger embedded upper-level
shortwave moves overhead. A few lightning strikes associated with
this activity cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon/evening,
especially along the eastern facing slopes of the Kuskokwim
Mountains. More stable air arrives for Monday and Tuesday as a
stronger and colder upper-level trough digs over Southwest by
then. Steady rains are likely across the Southwest moving from
northwest to southeast early next week.

Farther out west, higher pressure will remain in control across
the Bering Sea through the short-term period. The main challenge
for the Aleutian Chain, Pribilof Islands, and southern AKPEN will
be tracking where low stratus, mist, and fog might setup.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

Tuesday is shaping up to be an unsettled day for much of Alaska,
as an Arctic shortwave pushes into the southern interior. As its
associated cold front arrives, it should help cool temperatures
slightly below average for many locations. High pressure over the
Bering should prevent the cold front from working too far West,
keeping the Aleutians and most of the AKPen warm and dry. Light
scattered showers (and potentially isolated thunderstorms) will
work across the state from Northwest to Southeast as this system
sweeps through.

For Wednesday and Thursday, intermittent showers will likely
linger over Southcentral, with temperatures remaining near
seasonal norms. Conditions should improve for the southwest
interior as the Bering ridge spreads further East, maintaining
mostly dry and warmer weather.

Looking toward the end of the week, some model guidance hints at
a moderately strong North Pacific low migrating into the Gulf of
Alaska. The GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement for this
system pushing into the southern coast by Friday -- even
potentially tapping into Subtropical moisture. If this occurs
Southcentral would be looking at a continuation of this active
pattern, particularly for coastal areas.

-CW

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist through at least
tonight. Strong and gusty south to southeast winds blowing out of
the Turnagain Arm will steadily increase at the terminal through
this afternoon, with peak gusts around 30 to 35 kts possible
during the afternoon and evening hours. There is some potential
for marine stratus to move up the Cook Inlet and possibly into
west Anchorage late in the TAF period towards Sunday morning. If
this materializes, ceilings could drop to MVFR or lower late
tonight into early Sunday morning.

&&


$$