594
FXAK68 PAFC 271254
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
454 AM AKDT Mon Jul 27 2026


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday evening)...

Both the surface high pressure and the upper-level ridge of high
pressure are drifting slowly southeast this morning in response to
three distinct upper-level waves stretched across the state -- from
Fort Yukon, to Bethel, to the Alaska Peninsula. A surface low and
cold front are both associated with the first wave, with the
front north of Fairbanks this morning, but pushing southward. The
cold front bends back as a warm from attached to another surface
low near Bethel and another cold front moving southeast across the
Bering Sea. The third feature is near Akhiok this morning and is
moving away from the region, into the North Pacific.

The weather over much of Southcentral through the next 24 to 36
hours will be determined by how the first two waves and their
respective surface features interact. As the surface front near
Fairbanks moves south, showers will develop south of the Alaska
Range, mainly in a line from Skwentna east to Tahneta Pass and
north to Paxson. Additional showers are likely to develop over the
front range of the Kenai and Chugach mountains this afternoon as
well. These features, however, will slow then stall this evening
as the wave and low near Bethel drive south over the AKPen and
Kodiak Island. This will allow the ridge over the Gulf to become
slightly negatively-tilted, allowing the flow in the lower and mid
levels of the atmosphere to become more southerly, drawing added
moisture. Showers will become more widespread and heavier through
the evening and overnight hours, especially across the northern
Copper River Basin, parts of the Susitna Valley, and along the
western slopes of the Talkeetna Mountains, due to the south-
southwesterly flow aloft and added lift and instability from
vorticity advection from slight phasing of the waves.

By Tuesday morning, the front weakens into a trough. However,
multiple vorticity lobes embedded in the flow aloft, will likely
allow for light rain to persist across parts of the Mat-Su,
Anchorage Bowl, western Kenai, and Southwest Copper River Basin
through Tuesday morning before tapering off to higher elevation
showers by afternoon.

Based on a few changes to the previous forecast, rainfall amounts
have been increased in the Susitna Valley and Northern Copper
River Basin. NBM guidance has a likely rainfall amounts (70-90%)
ranging from 0.50" to 1" of rain for the Susitna Valley with the
highest amounts along the western foothills of the Talkeetnas.
There is also a chance (30-50%) of some rainfall totals exceeding
1". While these amounts are still not expected to cause any
additional flooding, it will be worth watching as many streams and
rivers in the Susitna Valley remain elevated along with already
saturated ground.

-TM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

Over the next few days, generally expect windy and wet conditions
for the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, with areas of fog and
low clouds. For Southwest Alaska and Northern Alaska Peninsula
(AKPen) expect light showers, with maybe an isolated thunderstorm
along the Bristol Bay coast and western Alaska Range today, then
a warming and drying trend into the middle of the week. The
biggest forecast challenge over the coming days will be the
coverage and thickness of fog across the Aleutian Chain and Bering
Sea.

Diving into the details... a ridge extends over the Bering Sea. A
front extends from a Kamchatka low and is moving across the
Aleutian Chain attempting to break this ridge down. Also, a series
of small shortwaves continue to move through the Bering into
Southwest. The largest wave moves through Southwest this morning.
As this wave moves through, a weak surface low develops near
Bristol Bay and brings light rain to the Bristol Bay coast, the
western Alaska Range, and Northern AKPen this morning. Cold air
advection aloft and upper level vorticity will lead to a slight
chance of thunderstorms this afternoon for areas around Bristol
Bay and along the slopes of the western Alaska Range down to Pilot
Point. The bulk of energy from the trough exits into the North
Pacific by tonight. While some showers may persist into tomorrow
morning along the western Alaska Range, most of southwest clears
out.

For the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, generally expect areas
of rain and sustained winds up to 20-30 kts as troughs and lows
move along the periphery of the ridge, which is from Shemya to the
Pribilofs and down to the eastern Aleutians. As the Kamchatka front
continues across the Aleutians and Bering today, a weak,
elongated surface low forms. The one-two punch of this low and the
wave moving through southwest will work to flatten and displace
the ridge southwards. This opens the door for rain to spill across
much of the Bering, Aleutians, and the southern AKPen today into
tonight.

By tomorrow morning, the front will weaken and the shortwave which
moves over Southwest today will be well into the North Pacific.
Without these, the ridge will build back over the Bering and into
mainland Southwest starting Tuesday. For Southwest and the
northern AKPen, this will start a warming and drying trend, with
high temperatures climbing back into the upper 60s to low 70s by
tomorrow, with potentially some mid 70s on Wednesday around
Bristol Bay. For the Bering, Aleutians, and southern AKPen, though
rain will taper off, building high pressure will likely bring in
more fog and low clouds. The biggest forecast challenge will be
the coverage and thickness of fog across the Aleutian Chain and
Bering Sea throughout the week. Towards Wednesday afternoon, the
next storm system will bring another chance of rain and some
small-craft winds for the far western Aleutians.


-PA/KC

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Friday)...

High pressure overtakes Southcentral and the Gulf of Alaska
through the long term forecast period resulting in warm, dry
conditions. Broad troughing is forecast to slide over the
southern Bering and Aleutians Thursday into Friday. While not
particularly strong, intermittent rain chances are likely beneath
and downstream of the trough from Unalaska and Saint Paul into
Southwest Alaska through the weekend.

-BL

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Southerly winds pick up,
becoming gusty through this morning and will persist through the
early afternoon, with gusts approaching 25 kt. Potential for
showers in the vicinity of the terminal by noon today. Better
chances for rain develop late tonight through Tuesday morning. VFR
ceilings may fall to MVFR in steadier rain Tuesday morning.

-CL/TM

&&


$$