863
FXAK68 PAFC 301324
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
524 AM AKDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3: This afternoon through Sunday afternoon)...

Key Messages:

* A warm, wet, and windy storm system will impact Southcentral
  Alaska today, with lesser impacts lingering into Halloween
  weekend.

* Winds: High Wind Warning in effect for Anchorage and Eagle River
  Hillsides through late this morning, with gusts of 60 to 75 mph
  ongoing. Gusts up to 40 to 55 mph for other locations that are
  prone to gusty southeasterly gap winds (lower elevations of
  Anchorage Bowl, Palmer and Wasilla, Copper River Valley) where a
  Wind Advisory is now in effect. For mariners, a barrier jet
  will bring gale to storm force winds across the northern Gulf
  coast today.

* Snow: Winter Storm Warning in effect for Northern Susitna Valley
  (including Broad Pass) for 7 to 15 inches of snow until this
  afternoon, with snowfall rates of up to 1 inch per hour. Winter
  Weather Advisory in effect for Thompson Pass for 10 to 15 inches
  of snow through much of tomorrow, with snowfall rates of up to
  1/2 inch per hour.

* Rain: Flood Advisory in effect for Seward area as heavy rain
  rates persist through this morning. Around 3 to 4 inches of
  rain total could cause small stream and localized urban
  flooding.

Discussion:

Very active, blustery and wet (or snowy for some) conditions are
in full swing this morning as a strong front and attendant
atmospheric river progress steadily northeast into Southcentral.
This frontal system is associated with the remnants of former
Typhoon Champi, now a weakening extratropical low drifting
across the eastern Bering Sea. Widespread moderate to heavy
precipitation is ongoing across a good portion of the region as
moisture streams north with strong southeasterly flow along and
ahead of the incoming front, especially along and near the coastal
mountains along the northern Gulf Coast. Low level temperatures
have warmed enough for most places in the lowest 2000 ft or so to
change to or remain all rain, except near a pocket of cold air
hanging on over parts of the Valdez Arm, where temperatures have
cooled just enough to switch over to snow for the time being.
Heavy snow is also continuing to push into mountain passes,
primarily in and around Thompson Pass and Broad Pass.

The other ongoing hazard for a number of spots is the fierce and
gusty southeast winds fueled by a low level jet and strong
pressure gradient in place ahead of the approaching frontal
boundary. Winds have generally been a bit stronger than some
earlier indications across the Mat Valley and Anchorage area,
where gusts ranging anywhere from 30 to 60 mph have been observed
overnight into this morning at lower elevations. Gusts as high as
70 to 80 mph have materialized at elevation across the Anchorage
Hillside, with the peak in these winds likely occurring now or set
to occur in the next couple hours as of this writing. Winds are
still anticipated to diminish steadily throughout the day today,
becoming much lighter by this afternoon and evening. In addition,
a powerful barrier jet is beginning to pick up ahead of the front
across then northern Gulf. This corridor of intense Gale to Storm
Force winds will progress northeast with the front into the Prince
William Sound towards midday, then eventually pinch out and
dissipate as the surface front pushes onshore this evening into
tonight. Strong and gusty winds could affect a couple communities
along eastern parts of the northern Gulf Coast as the barrier jet
moves onshore today, namely in and around Cordova.

Looking beyond today and tonight, things will quiet down quite a
bit by Halloween, but it will remain unsettled. As the front
shifts east tonight into Saturday morning, steady precipitation
will give way to widely scattered showers as the parent low drifts
southeast across the AKPen and into the western Gulf. There will
be potential (around a 40% chance) for a few marine thunderstorms
over the Gulf as cold air aloft near the remnant low rushes in
behind the frontal passage from late tonight into Saturday.
Elsewhere, expect shower activity to be most frequent and
widespread right along the coastline, with more intermittent
shower activity spreading north across the interior valleys
through the rest of the weekend. Gusty southeast winds will
also continue along the Turnagain Arm, albeit at much weaker
levels compared to what we are seeing now.

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday morning)...

Key Messages:

* Coastal Flood Advisory in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast
  until 7 AM AKDT Saturday morning.

* Wind Advisory in effect for Unalaska/Nikolski from 4 PM AKDT
  Friday afternoon through 10 AM AKDT Saturday morning

* Cold air from the north moves in behind the strong Bering low as
  it moves into the Gulf of Alaska for this weekend.

* Pattern remains active across the Bering and Aleutians this
  weekend and into the new work week.

Current satellite this morning reveals the strong Bering low is
currently located near the Pribilof Islands. This is the low which
is responsible for the increased water levels along the Kuskokwim
Delta Coast and strong gusty winds across the Aleutian Chain.
This low will pivot to the south and east and over the Alaska
Peninsula (AKPEN) by this evening. Rain will continue across the
Aleutians, AKPEN, and Southwest through today as precipitation
becomes more showery in nature for this weekend with cold air
moving in.

For Saturday, a push of cold air moves into Southwest and the
AKPEN from the north and west. Temperatures will only make it to
the 30s and low 40s across the area, with the warmer temperatures
along the AKPEN and Bristol Bay coast. Rain showers will also
change over to rain/snow mix across the Kuskokwim Delta and Coast
Saturday and Saturday night.

Flow switches back to the south and southeast for Sunday ahead of
the next storm system moving across the Bering. Initially, on
Saturday, a North Pacific low tracks south of Kamchatka as its
gale-force front moves across Shemya and the western Bering
Saturday evening. The gale-force front spreads gusty southeasterly
winds to Adak/Atka Saturday night through Sunday morning before
making its way to the Pribilof Islands, Unalaska/Nikolski, and the
southern AKPEN by Sunday afternoon and evening. Light to moderate
rain will also accompany this front on its eastern journey across
the Bering this weekend.

The front and its gusty easterly to east-southeasterly winds
eventually make it to the coastal Southwest by Monday morning,
along with rain. Right now, this set up does not look conducive
for a coastal flooding threat along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast, due
in part to the more offshore/easterly component to the wind. Stay
tuned for forecast updates as the active weather pattern
continues to unfold.

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

The weather pattern will remain active through the long term as a
broad trough with numerous shortwaves remains over the Bering Sea
and far northern Pacific. Due to the abundance of shortwaves and
interactions along a broad baroclinic zone, models are struggling
to reach a consensus on the track of each respective
storm/shortwave as they move from the Chain into the Gulf. As
such, forecast confidence for the timing of strong winds and/or
rain remains low. Given then abundance of warm air from the
current system, and another warm and wet system on Monday, rain
remains the main precipitation type for most populated areas
throughout the southern Mainland and Aleutians. Modeled snow
levels are forecast to be between 1500 and 2500 ft, but due to the
large spread in storm track there is a large variation in which
areas may be cold enough to get snow. Overall, the forecast
remains noisy, but warmer than normal temperatures and areas of
rain will continue.


&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Low level wind shear is likely to continue through late
afternoon or early evening with a light northerly surface wind at
the terminal and southeasterly winds 25 to 35 kt at 2000 ft or
less. Sometime late this afternoon to early evening, the
southeasterly wind through Turnagain Arm will move over the
airport with winds gusting 25 to 35 kt. Although a gusty
southeasterly wind is likely to prevail through Friday morning,
there may be a period of a few hours tonight into the overnight
hours where the orientation of the pressure gradient becomes more
north to south and allows for the winds moving through Turnagain
Arm to retreat from the terminal and back down Cook Inlet. During
this time, winds and gusts may be erratic with light northerly
winds interrupted by wind gusts from the southeast, lending to a
higher likelihood of LLWS. The southeasterly Turnagain Arm wind
will move back over the terminal as a prevailing wind, with gusts
to 30 kt, by early Friday morning.

Rainfall will be light and ceilings are expected to be mainly
VFR. However, there may be some brief periods of MVFR ceilings
in heavier showers through this evening. Some more persistent
rain is expected to develop overnight, but VFR conditions are
expected to prevail due to the wind keeping the lower atmosphere
mixed enough to keep it from saturating. Ceilings are then
expected to fall into MVFR conditions Friday morning as winds
diminish and precipitation continues to fill in over the terminal.

&&


$$