162
FXAK68 PAFC 180127
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
527 PM AKDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday)...

Currently, a front is passing through Southcentral Alaska. Rain
chances have increased as a result, even in the Anchorage area.
However, most precipitation from this front is on the light side
and many areas are not receiving precipitation. Cooler
temperatures are accompanying this front due to increased cloud
cover. The Copper River basin, however, is relatively clear and
so, warmer. Winds are calm in inland areas, but still remain
elevated in gap regions in the waters due to lingering effects of
a coastal ridge. Thunderstorms area forming in the Copper River
Basin and the Talkeetna mountains due to higher instability.
Easterly flow will give a chance for a couple thunderstorms to
move west off the foothills toward Talkeetna. This easterly flow
is being caused by a low in the Gulf and an area of high pressure
over northern Alaska.

Wednesday will see skies begin clear as higher pressure builds in
to Southcentral Alaska. There is a bit of uncertainty how fast
this will take place, so high temperatures will be warmer or
cooler depending on when the cloud deck dissipates. Higher
instability will be present due to the warmer temperatures, so the
Copper River Basin and the Susitna Valley will have higher
thunderstorm coverage. These storms may bring localized gusty
winds and heavy rainfall. The aforementioned easterly flow will
allow some of these storms to flow over valleys. Thursday will
likely be the warmest day with temperatures reaching the 70s and
80s in inland regions. Instability will also be high, meaning
scattered thunderstorms in the aforementioned areas are likely
with smaller chances in the Chugach and Kenai Mountains. The ridge
of high pressure will extend deeper south into the Gulf on
Friday. This will decrease chances for rain somewhat. The upper
easterly flow will shift to variable, so thunderstorms will
generally remain in the foothills of mountain ranges. A front
pushes into Kodiak Island by early Saturday, increasing winds and
precipitation chances. It remains to be seen how the front will
affect the mainland when it arrives.

-JAR

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

High pressure over most of interior Alaska continues to bring
warm temperatures to Southwest while low pressure encompasses the
Bering Sea. Thunderstorms have already been been observed
developing in the Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay region today,
kicking off what will likely be an active evening of convection
for the region. A Red Flag Warning for lightning has been issued
through midnight tonight to highlight this threat. The best
chances for lightning will be between Aniak and Lime Village and
areas north, but isolated strikes further south can not be ruled
out. An easterly upper level wave will bring light rain and cloud
clover through the night. A slightly more stable atmosphere will
develop over Southwest tomorrow before thunderstorm chances
increase again on Thursday afternoon. Fire starts from lightning
are on the rise across the state due to a favorable convective
weather pattern and long summer days continuing convection through
the late evening hours, so this is something we will keep a close
eye on in the coming days.

Tomorrow, a gale-force North Pacific low will move just south of
the Central Aleutians. Widespread rain and small craft to gale
force winds will encompass much of the Bering Sea by tomorrow
night. The frontal system will push east through Thursday,
bringing rain and elevated southeasterly winds to the Eastern
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula through Friday morning.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

The weather pattern across the Alaskan region continues under a
broad upper level trough centered mostly over the Bering.
Shortwaves and transient lows slip off across the Alaska Peninsula
into the Gulf of Alaska. These transient lows undercut a ridge
that extends across Northern Alaska, with the Southern portions
sliding into Canada. Individual models and model ensembles support
the large scale pattern through the weekend, but begin to vary
somewhat during the second half of the forecast period.

Scattered rain showers and possible thunderstorms will dot much
of the Southern Mainland through the period. Continued warmer
temperatures increase the likelihood of convection through
Tuesday, especially around the Alaska Range and Eastern Interior.
A weakening Central Aleutian surface low extends a front over the
Northern Bering into Western Alaska. Areas of rain associated with
the front continue over across Southwest Alaska and the AKPEN
into Kodiak Island through Sunday. Further West, a well developed
Eastern Asian low and front pushes across the Western and Central
Aleutians and Bering through Tuesday.

- Kutz

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Winds are expected to be from the South to Southwest around
5 to 10 kts overnight and into Wednesday. The challenge with this
direction is that it may bring MVFR ceilings back over the
terminal after midnight as that pesky marine layer, though
weaker, is still present over the Inlet. It does look like even if
these MVFR ceilings do develop again overnight, they should
mostly burn off by afternoon as drier air filters into the area
for Wednesday.

&&


$$