992
FXAK68 PAFC 221252
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 AM AKDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

There are some clouds associated with a weak shortwave moving
through the light westerly flow aloft this morning. These clouds
should give way to mostly sunny skies as the day progresses as an
upper level ridge moves through the area. This sets the stage for
a subtly tricky forecast moving into Saturday afternoon and
Sunday. This upper level ridge will elongate over Southcentral
Saturday, which will weaken it and allow a shortwave to move in from
northwest by late in the day. At this time, it looks most likely
that rain will be relegated to the Alaska Range and only
increasing clouds will make it to the rest of the region.
This pattern will be rather slow to change for Sunday into Monday
with the northern parts of the area near the Alaska Range with a
chance for a long duration rain, while farther south areas such
as the Kenai Peninsula could keep some sunny breaks through the
weekend. Where the boundary of the rainfall sets up should become
more clear over the next day.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
Days 1 to 3: (Today through Monday morning)...

This morning, a low continues to move along the Kamchatka Coast
as it pushes a front across the central Bering Sea and Pribilof
Islands. At the same time, a ridge continues to take up real
estate in the North Pacific as it nudges into Southwest Alaska.
The front will make it to the Kuskokwim Delta Coast by tonight and
move inland of Southwest Alaska through Saturday and bring rain
along with it. Most rain with this system is expected to fall
along the Kuskokwim Delta and Kuskokwim Valley with lighter rain
for Bristol Bay.

Meanwhile, as this initial front moves through Southwest on
Saturday and the parent low departs to northern Alaska, an upper-
level low over Kamchatka will elongate and dig southward over the
North Pacific at the same time that the North Pacific ridge begins
to amplify nudging further into the central and eastern Bering as
well as mainland Bristol Bay. This atmospheric configuration will
help sub-tropical moisture surge northward into the western
Bering starting today. Moderate to heavy rain stays confined to
the Western Aleutians through Saturday and slowly works north and
eastward Sunday reaching the Central Aleutians and the Pribilof
Islands. The stream of moisture reorients slightly in a more west-
southwest to east-northeast fashion Sunday afternoon as rain moves
into the Kuskokwim Delta by then.

There is still some uncertainty in where a new low will track
within the atmospheric river Sunday afternoon through Monday. As
of now, it appears as the low will spin up on the Pacific side of
the Western Aleutians Sunday afternoon. The low goes north and
into the Bering Sea from there. However, the question and
uncertainty, is how far to the west of the Pribilof Islands this
low will track. The 00z GFS ensemble mean has a low track furthest
west of the Pribilof Islands which is a somewhat drier solution
for the Pribilofs and the Kuskokwim Delta. The 00z Canadian and
European Ensemble means have a track closer to and just west of
the Pribilofs providing a wetter solution for the islands and
Kuskokwim Delta. At least through Monday morning, the wettest
areas will be the Western and Central Aleutians, the Pribilof
Islands, and the Kuskokwim Delta. The question is rain amounts
which again will rely heavily on the storm track. Stay tuned as we
continue to dial in the forecast on this upcoming atmospheric
river this weekend and into next week.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Sunday through Thursday)...

The long term forecast remains largely on track with the main
weather concern centered around a soggy weather pattern for the
Aleutians, Bering Sea, and portions of the Mainland. High pressure
will continue to flatten through this weekend as it stretches
across the Alaska Peninsula, southern Bristol Bay and the
Southcentral Gulf Coast. A low continues to linger over the North
Pacific, south of the Gulf of Alaska. These features will
gradually sink southward as a series of frontal passages track
across the Bering Sea while its parent low skims the coast of
Russia. The area of lowest confidence during this timeframe will
be from Kodiak Island through at least the Cook Inlet and Susitna
Valley region.

For Southcentral and Kodiak Island, showers will be likely,
especially over higher elevations, but confidence with winds and
precipitation is much lower throughout the extended forecast due
to stay power of the ridge breaking down and differences in the
models with how they resolve the frontal passages off the
neighboring lows that intrude into the area. Expect the
Southcentral forecast for next week to change with time.

Looking farther west, deep southwest flow with an amble moisture
fetch looks to direct much of its energy over the Aleutians and
across the Bering Sea Monday. Through midweek, models point toward
not only a soggy weather pattern with moderate to heavy rainfall
at times, but also gusty south to southwesterly winds. Gap winds
will be possible along the Alaska Peninsula and across the western
Capes and Southwest Alaska Coast. The potential for coastal
flooding along the Southwest coast looks like less of a threat
compared to yesterdays model runs, but this will continue to be
evaluated in the coming days since subtle changes can still make a
difference in the outcome. There are also some differences in the
surface features of the models in the extended forecast that
would play a role in the temporal and spatial precipitation
outcomes. None-the-less, the Bering Sea, Aleutians, and Southwest
Alaska can expect sogginess. A brief ridge looks to move through
the Western and Central Aleutians late Wednesday with another low
looking to approach the western Aleutians Thursday.

rux

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...The likelihood of showers in the vicinity and MVFR
ceilings continues to decrease through early this morning. Light
winds and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this
afternoon and evening.

&&


$$