099
FXAK68 PAFC 011253
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
453 AM AKDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday)...

A complex, gale-force low remains in the Gulf of Alaska today. One
of the distinct low centers has passed just west of Middleton
Island early Saturday morning, and will rapidly weaken as the low
center in the south-centeral Gulf will swing northward to the east
of Middleton by early afternoon and then stall out near there into
tonight. This will result in the Gale-force (or near Gale) winds
persisting for the north Gulf coast today. There is also a
pronounced upper level wave associated with the first low center
that moving across the area over Anchorage and the Susitna Valley
early this morning. This is not expected to bring much
precipitation to the Lee sides of the mountains, but there is a
bit an area of clearing behind this wave. Therefore, don`t be
surprised to see a few breaks in the cloud cover today after this
wave goes through.

By Saturday night, the low weakens and moves onshore leaving
westerly flow across Kodiak Island and the Gulf with the residual
moisture over Southcentral under southerly flow aloft. The
interest in this moisture is that a broad shortwave trough aloft
will lift across Southcentral Sunday through Monday. This could
provide enough lift to produce some light showers for the Cook
Inlet region, especially Sunday night. Temperatures will be
cooling with the light southerly flow as cold air streaming across
the Bering Sea wraps back north around the trough axis, meaning
that temperatures will cool across Southcentral heading into next
week. As a result, these showers will be increasingly likely to be
in the form of snow and bring some light accumulations to parts
of the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and Mat-Su Valleys into Monday.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Synoptic: A Gulf of Alaska low moves toward Prince William Sound
while a Bering Sea low traverses the Western Aleutians through
Monday.

The 965 mb low in the Gulf of Alaska will continue to dominate
the weather pattern in the Kuskokwim Valley and Delta this
weekend. As the low moves in a northeastward direction today, the
highest QPF values, and therefore the highest snow accumulations
through later this morning, continue to trend east of Bethel.
Therefore, snowfall accumulations have decreased: coastal areas
are expected to accumulate up to an inch, up to two inches near Bethel
and up to four inches towards Sleetmute by late this morning.
Northwest winds will continue through the late this morning then
shift to a more northwesterly direction as the aforementioned low
moves farther east and a Bering Strait low forms. This wind shift
to a more northwesterly, onshore flow persists during this
afternoon and evening throughout the Kuskokwim Delta and Valley
and will keep light snow showers will continue. A weak ridge moves
across the Central Aleutians tomorrow reaching the Southwest
Mainland tomorrow afternoon. Its arrival will signal a more
westerly onshore flow for the Mainland.

Light snow/rain showers measured a trace to 0.04" and wind gusts
from last evening through 4:00am this morning in the Central and
Eastern Aleutians as continued robust northerly winds continued;
Cold Bay recorded 50 mph with other locations ranging from 35 to
45 mph. A weak, fast- moving low travels along a deep Bering Sea
trof today. The low crosses just west of Unalaska later this
morning and into the North Pacific in the afternoon. A brief
increase in wind speeds, gusts and wave height will accompany its
arrival with gusts to 50 mph; highest in bays and passes. The
aforementioned weak ridge will cross the Central and Eastern
Aleutians as well as the Alaska Peninsula in the wake of today`s
low.

A Bering Low moves along a deep trof in the Western Bering
bringing gale force strength winds to Shemya tomorrow morning
and reaching Adak by tomorrow evening. Forecaster experience and
interpretation of model biases the past 72 hours including today
continue the trend for this low to trek over the Central Aleutians
and into the North Pacific. Therefore, confidence of the low`s
overall track remains high. Temperatures will rise slightly ahead
of the low`s crossing as southwest flow from its front becomes
the dominant wind direction.

-Johnston

&&



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

Precipitation moves from Southcentral to Southwest and north along
the western coast as remnants of a front weakens and dissipates
northward across the western part of the state Tuesday into
Wednesday. Ridging then moves in across Southcentral and a
Kamchatka low descends from the western Bering across the
Aleutians then into the North Pacific by Wednesday morning.
Northerly gales are anticipated from this system between Amchitka
to Atka, although model agreement remains low concerning the
strength and location of the strongest winds. A low in the
southern Gulf will project its front into the northern and eastern
Gulf coast Thursday through Friday as the low continues
approaching the northern Gulf coast into the weekend. Looking
back to the western Bering on Friday, a strong low could
potentially bring storm force winds to the Aleutian Chain.


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds are expected to persist.
There is a small chance for some fog development after midnight
Saturday night if there are sufficient breaks in the cloud cover
overnight.

&&


$$