768
FXAK68 PAFC 171244
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
444 AM AKDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday)...

Cooler, cloudier weather with a passing shot of rain is on deck for
many across Southcentral Alaska today. Satellite imagery shows a low
moving westward across the southern Gulf of Alaska. A more
pronounced trough is currently moving west along an axis extending
out from the low north through the Prince William Sound and into the
central Chugach. The approach of the trough is beginning to induce a
coastal ridge, which in turn has resulted in an uptick in winds
through some of the gaps and fjords such as Valdez. Radar imagery
currently reveals precipitation moving into Prince William Sound and
encroaching upon the eastern Kenai Peninsula as of 4am.

As we progress through the morning, precipitation will overspread
much of the eastern Kenai up through the western half of the
Chugach, with some precip likely making it into the Talkeetnas as
well. A brief, though likely strong, Turnagain Arm jet will get
going such that the southern portion of Anchorage and Anchorage
Hillside will likely be in a for a breezy morning. Precipitation
on the lee of the mountains is expected to be lighter and more
showery in nature, with scattered showers expected from the
western Kenai up through Anchorage and the Mat-Su later this
morning into the early afternoon hours before clearing this
evening in wake of the trough.

Wednesday will mark the return of warmer, sunnier typical summer
weather for most locations in wake of Tuesday`s trough. A strong
upper-level ridge remains well-established across Interior Alaska,
placing Southcentral Alaska within easterly flow on the southern
periphery of this ridge. Weak, subtle shortwave troughs embedded in
this easterly flow combined with daytime heating will help
initiate showers and isolated thunderstorms, particularly across
the higher terrain of the Copper River Basin and Talkeetnas on
both days, with a lesser but non-zero chance of some showers
across the Chugach and Kenai Mountains. Temperatures both
Wednesday and Thursday will be on the warm side, with many
locations expected to be in the 70s to around 80. Coastal
locations of course will remain a bit cooler with the maritime
influence.

-Brown

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Hot and dry conditions will continue across Southwest Alaska
today. Chances are still good for thunderstorm development across
the lower Kuskokwim Valley this afternoon/evening, with slighter
chances stretching into Bristol Bay and eastern portions of the
Kuskokwim Delta. The best chances will be between Aniak and Lime
Village and areas north. A slightly more stable atmosphere will
develop over Southwest on Wednesday before thunderstorm chances
kick up again on Thursday afternoon.

Low marine stratus and areas of fog will continue across the
Bering and Aleutian Islands. By Wednesday, a gale force North
Pacific low moves just south of the Central Aleutians. Widespread
rain and small craft to gale force winds will encompass much of
the Bering Sea by Wednesday night.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

Much of the long term has good, broad scale agreement as an upper
ridge of high pressure for the north-central part of the state
remains in place and a large, upper level low encompasses much of
the eastern Gulf. With daytime heating and a reinforced easterly
flow, this is a good convective setup for storms for the northern
Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin for at least the first part
of the period. There is fair confidence that the upper level
dynamics for the west should allow for a series of shortwaves to
rotate off of a main system south of the Aleutians beginning
Friday. This could cut into the ridge and cause it to lift as the
waves move eastward. Mid to late period, more of an Omega
blocking pattern takes over across the region with upper troughing
in the west and ridging extending northward from the Gulf into
Southcentral. Overall, temperature and precipitation anomalies
from the global models suggest that most areas of the east will
stay warmer and some areas wetter than average, while the west
could become cooler and wetter than average due to lows tracking
across the Aleutians and Bering.

-AM

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are set to prevail throughout the TAF
period. Isolated, very light rain showers are currently moving
through the Anchorage area early this morning ahead of an
approaching trough. This trough and associated coastal ridge are
set to induce a brief, though likely gusty, southeast wind out of
the Turnagain Arm this morning. Can`t rule out a few showers as
well, but should be isolated to scattered in nature as the trough
rotates through. Wind speeds will decrease and showers will
diminish through the afternoon in wake of the trough passage.

-Brown

&&


$$