675
FXAK68 PAFC 281250
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
450 AM AKDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3/Today through Friday night)...

The high amplitude upper level ridge remains over Southcentral
this morning. This has led to areas of dense fog from the western
Kenai Peninsula through the Anchorage bowl and into parts of the
matanuska Valley. The Copper River Basin has also seen widespread
fog along much of the Richardson Highway and along the Glenn
Highway as far west as Eureka. These areas of fog should lessen as
the day goes on though they may not fully dissipate across the
region.

A large swathe of marine stratus has developed in the western
Gulf of Alaska covering most of Kodiak Island and is encroaching
into southern Cook Inlet. This stratus is likely to keeping
eastward across the Gulf and slowly northward into Cook Inlet
throughout the day. This makes a difficult sky cover forecast for
the southern Kenai Peninsula as the stratus and sunshine battle it
out which will result in a lot of sunny skies but with nearby
areas moving in and out of low marine clouds.

This upper ridge will be pushed slowly eastward toward Canada on
through tonight as a short-wave trough and surface frontal system
approach from the Bering Sea. This will bring precipitation
tonight and into Thursday from Kodiak to the western Kenai and
Susitna Valley, with lighter and shorter duration of precipitation
for the eastern Kenai, Anchorage, and Mat Valley. The precipitation
at lower elevations will be mostly rain in the Cook Inlet region
with a transition to snow in the central Susitna Valley for
tonight.

While this upper short-wave exits northward on Thursday and the
surface front dissipates, southerly upslope flow will strengthen
out ahead of the next Bering sea system. This will lead to
increasing precipitation rates along the southeastern Kodiak
Island, southern Kenai Peninsula, and western to northern Susitna
Valley. While precipitation type will mainly be in the form of
rain, will need to keep an eye on the northern to western Susitna
Valley, where conditions will initially be cold enough for snow. A
strong front (and accompanying atmospheric river aloft) will then
arrive from the Bering Thursday night and slowly march eastward
through Friday. While there is some uncertainty in timing of the
front, confidence is high (80%) in heavy rain for coastal areas
and the Cook Inlet to Susitna Valley corridor, with snow level
rising to 2000 (Susitna Valley) to 3500 feet (Kenai Peninsula and
Prince William Sound) by Friday afternoon. As is typical with a
strong front, southeasterly gap winds will develop ahead of the
front, including Turnagain Arm and the Copper River Valley. While
there will be some low level downslope flow, any drying will be
overcome by very moist southerly flow and strong upward vertical
motion aloft.

-EZ/SEB

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A front is currently bringing a swath of rainfall and gusty winds
to coastal Southwest Alaska. This swath of rain and winds
is expected to push inland by Wednesday afternoon once a
shortwave helps the front overcome the strong ridge that is over
much of Alaska. The stronger winds over the coast are being
reinforced by this shortwave trough. Due to the persistent
southerly flow and higher tides, elevated water levels (1 to 2
feet above the normal highest tide line) are expected along the
Kuskokwim Coast. Due to this threat as well as the gusty winds, a
High Surf Advisory and a Wind Advisory remains in effect through
10 AM this morning. Behind the front is weak ridging, which will
allow winds to rainfall chances to diminish in the Bering Sea
Wednesday afternoon and eventually the Southwest Mainland by
Thursday morning.

By Thursday morning, a large low associated with the remnants of
Ex-Typhoon Champi moves into the Bering. This low has a high
likelihood of bringing storm force and gale force winds to the
Aleutians, as well as continued south to southwest flow to the
Kuskokwim Delta both Thursday and Friday. The tide cycle will peak
through the end of the week resulting in higher water levels for
the Kuskokwim Delta Coast, especially on Friday. While exact water
levels are still being determined, current thinking is for
potential water levels between 1 and 3 ft above the normal highest
tide line for Kipnuk and Kwigillingok. Stay tuned for any updates
as the track of the low could change.

As the low moves southeastward towards the Gulf of Alaska on
Saturday, winds will flip in direction for Coastal Southwest
Alaska, alleviating the Kuskokwim Coast of coastal flooding
potential. Cooler air filters in at this point, so any lingering
showers over the mainland will be snow or a rain/snow mix
depending on how cold temperatures get. Meanwhile, a strong front
moves into the Bering from the west, bringing more winds and
rainfall with it. It remains to be seen the exact impacts of this
front for now.

-JAR/SS

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

Very little change from the previous long term discussion. The
long term looks to be remain active, particularly for the Bering
Sea, Aleutian Chain, and Southwest Alaska locations. By Saturday,
the global models are in fairly good agreement and depict ex-
Typhoon Champi merging with another strong low pressure system and
becoming a large, deep, and occluded low pressure system moving
eastward across the Bering (and weakening as it does so) with its
front quickly entering the Gulf of Alaska on Saturday. As the
front nears the Gulf coast, expect coastal ridging and a return of
gap winds for Southcentral for the Turnagain Arm, Knik River
Valley, and Copper River Basin for the weekend, possibly lingering
into the first part of next week. As mentioned, the surface low
will be weakening as it moves inland into Southwest Alaska, with
strong northwesterly gap winds becoming a common theme for the
Central and Eastern Aleutians by Saturday morning. Pattern
recognition suggests that one place to watch will be Cold Bay, as
northwest winds can be especially enhanced through the gap there.
Expect gap winds elsewhere to be elevated, but generally
decreasing in intensity through the favored bays and passes of the
Alaska Peninsula through Sunday morning. Models are in somewhat
better agreement today of a secondary low pressure system situated
off the Kamchatka Peninsula and moving into the Bering late
Sunday into early Monday morning. Though there is a better
consensus today than yesterday, there is still quite a bit of
spread on this system as the GFS remains the much more
bullish/stronger solution while other model guidance continues to
struggle resolving this system in terms of intensity and
positioning. 850 mb temperature anomalies suggest that
temperatures stay at or above average through the end of the long
term for the both the west and east.

-AM


&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Dense fog expected to continue through the first half of
this morning, reducing visibilities to one-quarter mile or less.
Once the fog lifts, VFR conditions and light north-northeasterly
winds will persist. Low level wind shear is likely this afternoon
through tonight, with southerly winds aloft at 30-40 mph. Light
rain moves over the terminal late tonight and cloud ceilings drop
below 5000 feet.

&&


$$