127
FXAK68 PAFC 312344
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
344 PM AKDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3: This afternoon through Tuesday afternoon)...

Key Messages:

* Showery through the weekend. Showers will be most frequent along
  the Gulf coast, with about a 10% chance for a lightning strike
  or two with the strongest cells. Confidence is generally low
  with the exact timing and placement of these hit-or-miss
  showers.

* Active weather returns for Monday and Tuesday as a strong front
  moves into the Gulf. Highest precipitation amounts and strongest
  winds will likely occur on Kodiak Island and along the Gulf
  coast.

Discussion:

In the wake of yesterday`s front, a showery regime is taking over
as cool air aloft rushes in near a weak low and attendant upper
trough shifting east into the region from Southwest. Widespread
rain showers are streaming north ahead of the trough axis into the
northern Gulf Coast, with some occasional lightning noted with
some stronger cells near Seward and near Cordova earlier today.
Marine instability could fuel a few more marine thunderstorms as
the weak low lingers overhead. Farther inland, conditions have
mostly dried out, but showers are still occasionally working north
past the coastline into parts of the Kenai Peninsula, Mat-Su, and
Anchorage.

Looking to the remainder of the weekend and into early next week,
the overall showery and seasonably warm pattern does not look
likely to change much. The trough and weak low currently drifting
into the western Gulf will continue to slowly lift northeast,
keeping scattered rain showers going over water and periodic
rain/snow showers spreading inland over Southcentral on-and-off
through Monday. What`s left of the main trough axis will begin to
shear apart as it lifts northeast towards the northern Alaska
Range by late Monday evening. By around the same time, the next
system of interest will also enter the southwestern Gulf. A
frontal system associated with a sprawling Bering low will begin
to send strong southeasterly winds and rain into the southern Gulf
and across Kodiak Island as it approaches from the south towards
the end of the day on Monday. This looks like the start of what
could be an extended period of more active weather next week,
especially in terms of wind and waves in and around the Gulf. The
most uncertain aspects of the forecast will be (a) the
timing/progression of this front, and (b) the strength and
placement of new low(s) developing along the front. Still,
excellent model consensus on the strength of this front means that
confidence is very high for gales across the Gulf, with potential
for storm force winds around any low that develops along the
front.

-AS/KC

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday morning)...

Key Messages:

* Cold air from the north moves in behind the strong Bering low as
  it moves into the Gulf of Alaska for this weekend.

* Pattern remains active across the Bering and Aleutians through
  the rest of the weekend and into the new work week. Low tracks
  look to be trending more progressive.

Current satellite and surface observations across the Kuskokwim
Delta show areas of fog today. These areas will remain in fog
through late tomorrow morning. Rain will continue across the
Aleutians, AKPEN, and Southwest and become more showery in nature
through this weekend. Some snow flakes may mix in at times across
the Kuskokwim Delta and Kuskokwim Delta Coast as precipitation
combines with the incoming cold air.

Wind flow switches back to the south and southeast tomorrow ahead
of the next storm system currently moving across the Bering Sea.
A North Pacific low tracks south of Kamchatka as its gale- force
front moves across Shemya and the western Bering this evening. The
gale-force front spreads gusty southeasterly winds to Adak/Atka
tonight through tomorrow morning before making its way to the
Pribilof Islands, Unalaska/Nikolski, and the southern AKPEN by the
afternoon and evening. Moderate rain will also accompany this
front on its eastern journey across the Bering this weekend.
Behind the front, strong winds are expected to wrap cooler air
into the low generating instability over the Bering and North
Pacific. Isolated lightning strikes will be possible (10 to 30
percent chance) tomorrow and Monday on the Pacific side of the
Western and Central Aleutians.

Pre-frontal gale force southeasterly winds switch to
southwesterly winds behind the front. There remains the potential
for storm force sustained winds tomorrow and Monday (30 to 40
percent chance) as the low`s center moves along the Western
Aleutian Chain (Shemya) to the Central Aleutians (Adak/Atka) and
Eastern Aleutians (Nikolski/Unalaska).

By Monday morning, the front and its gusty easterly to east-
southeasterly winds eventually make it to the coastal Southwest.
This set up does not look conducive for a coastal flooding threat
along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast, due in part to the more
offshore/easterly component to the wind. Most of the rain with
this system will look to fall along Bristol Bay and the AKPEN,
Monday into Tuesday as the front dissipates quickly over the
Mainland.


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Only minor changes from previous discussion. The weather pattern
will remain active through the long term as a broad trough with
numerous shortwaves remains over the Bering Sea and far northern
Pacific. Due to the abundance of shortwaves and interactions along
a broad baroclinic zone, models are struggling to reach a
consensus on the track of each respective storm/shortwave as they
move from the Chain into the Gulf. As such, forecast confidence
for the timing of strong winds and/or rain remains low.

Given the abundance of warm air from the current system, and
another warm and wet system on Tuesday, rain remains the main
precipitation type for most populated areas throughout the
southern Mainland and Aleutians. Modeled snow levels are forecast
to be between 1500 and 2500 ft, but due to the large spread in
storm track there is a large variation in which areas may be cold
enough to get snow. Overall, the forecast remains complex, but
warmer than normal temperatures and areas of rain will continue.
In comparison to the current weather, impacts such as wind and
rain are more likely to be over the Aleutians, Kodiak, the Alaska
Peninsula and the Kenai Peninsula.


&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...A light northerly wind is expected to prevail through
Sunday morning. However, the southeasterly Turnagain Arm wind may
move over the terminal a time or two this afternoon. Any
southeasterly winds that do move over the terminal are expected to
be between 10 and 20 mph with an isolated gust around 25 mph.

Isolated to scattered rain showers will continue to move across
the Anchorage Bowl and airport terminal through the overnight
hours. VRF ceilings and visibilities are likely to prevail, even
during times of shower activity; however, ceilings could fall to
or just below 5,000 ft. More widespread shower activity is
expected for early Sunday morning. There is a better chance
(50-60%) for MVFR ceilings during this round of showers.

&&


$$