696
FXAK68 PAFC 280055
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
455 PM AKDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Monday through Wednesday)...

Satellite imagery showed a surface low and cold front continuing
to move south today with radar indicated and ground observations
confirmed scattered rain showers across most of Southcentral. The
chance for isolated lightning strikes will continue to move
northward through the evening hours as southerly flow through the
Copper Basin and Susitna Valley persists.

As a low currently over Dillingham moves southeastward the next 48
hours, the aforementioned cold front will rotate northwestward
allowing for a deeper area of moisture to work into Southcentral.
This leads to a more widespread coverage of rain showers for most
locations overnight into tomorrow afternoon. However, the
greatest rain showers are expected from the Northern Susitna
Valley to the Copper River Basin.

Rainfall amounts in the Susitna Valley and Northern Copper River
Basin ranging from 0.50" to 1.00" are at a 60-80% possibility with
a 30% to 50% chance of exceeding 1.00" of rain for the Susitna
Valley.  While these amounts are still not expected to cause any
additional flooding, it will be worth watching as many streams and
rivers in the Susitna Valley remain elevated along with already
saturated ground.


&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Thursday
afternoon)...

Areas of rain today will taper off through tonight/tomorrow
morning. Generally warm and dry from tomorrow through Thursday,
but a storm system moving into the Western Bering and Adak/Atka
Wednesday evening will mark the beginning of a transition towards
more unsettled weather. The primary hazards to monitor will be a
3-4 day stretch of warmer than usual temperatures (70-75 degrees)
for parts of Bristol Bay and interior Southwest. Otherwise, the
fog forecast remains the most challenging aspect of the forecast.

Diving into the details... a front and its associated weak,
elongated surface low is bringing rain as it slides southeastwards
just to the west of the Pribilof Islands. Simultaneously, a low
near Kodiak Island is bringing rain showers to the Lake Iliamna
area and to the northern Alaska Peninsula. A tightening surface
pressure gradient between a ridge in the Bering Sea and these two
lows is leading to 20-30 kt winds, with gusts to 35 kt, along the
Aleutian Chain and Alaska Peninsula.

As these lows move southwards and out of the area tonight, expect
a return to drier conditions for tomorrow and Wednesday. For the
Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, this will likely mean a return of
low clouds and fog for Tuesday and Wednesday. By Wednesday
afternoon, a low coming from the west will displace the ridge
eastwards, leading to widespread light to moderate rain and winds
to 20-30 kt by Thursday.

For Southwest Alaska, tomorrow will mark the beginning of about
3-4 days of warmer temperatures as higher pressure builds in.
Compared to yesterday, models have trended a bit warmer,
especially as a slowing down of the Bering Sea low will allow for
the ridge to persist for a bit longer over Southwest Alaska. While
much of Southwest will see daytime highs in the 60s to 70s, the
areas to watch will be from Bristol Bay north to Kuskokwim Valley,
where there will likely be a prolonged period of daytime highs
above 70 degrees. For Bristol Bay, conditions like these occur
about once a year, and typically towards the end of July. With
more people out and about conducting subsistence activities, it`s
a good idea to plan for these warmer temperatures, especially as
several days in a row of 70+ degree temperatures could lead to
cumulative heat stress. The good news is that overnight lows will
dip to 45-50 degrees, providing the opportunity for some cooling
down overnight. We`ll continue to monitor these conditions,
especially as observed temperatures in recent days have been
warmer than predicted. As such, it`s possible that our forecast
may trend warmer, and the threat of warmer temperatures could be
more pronounced than currently anticipated. Stay tuned.

-KC

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The trend towards warmer, drier conditions continues through the
long term period as high pressure remains over much of mainland
Alaska and the northern Gulf of Alaska. Broad troughing is
forecast to slide across the southern Bering and Aleutians Friday
through Saturday. While not particularly strong, intermittent rain
chances are likely beneath and downstream of the trough, with the
greatest chance for rain stretching from Unalaska and Saint Paul
to coastal Southwest Alaska through Saturday. By Sunday into early
next week, the low tracks into the North Pacific with its front
remaining well south of the northern Gulf coast.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through this evening. A few
showers could move over the terminal during the remainder of the
afternoon, but steadier rain should hold off until later tonight.
Gusty winds blowing out of the Turnagain Arm will gradually
decrease this evening and mostly shut off by the early morning
hours. Ceilings could drop into MVFR range as steady, light rain
begins overnight tonight.

&&


$$