642
FXAK68 PAFC 100104
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
504 PM AKDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Wednesday)...

Key Messages:

- A Heat Advisory has been issued for the Lower Matanuska Valley
  including Wasilla, Palmer, and Big Lake.

- Warm temperatures expected through Monday evening for
  Anchorage-Anchorage Hillside / Eagle River.

- Cooler conditions expected Tuesday, followed by a modest warming
  trend on Wednesday.

Discussion:

The upper level high will remain centered over the Kenai Peninsula
and Cook Inlet region today before retrograding westward to
interior Southwest AK on Monday. Southcentral can expect Monday to
be a very similar day to today, with any morning fog or low
clouds  burning off and leading to a partly to mostly sunny day
and warm day, with temperatures in the 60s along the coast and 70s
inland. Afternoon/evening showers will be limited to the
northeastern Copper River Basin, along the Tok Cutoff and areas
north of the Wrangell Mountains. As the ridge shifts west on
Monday, a series of weak short-waves will track from the Interior
southward across Southcentral. This will lead to a slight uptick
in afternoon/evening showers over the mountains. Stable conditions
along the coast and valleys will maintain the dry weather and
sunshine.

On Tuesday, the upper level ridge will begin to lift back toward
Southcentral, causing low-level flow to shift from northerly to
southerly. This will allow a more significant push of the marine
layer inland, especially up Cook Inlet and the western Kenai
Peninsula to Anchorage and the Mat-Su. Thus, increasing clouds and
marine influence could result in cooler temperatures Tuesday,
particularly near Cook Inlet.

By Wednesday, weak shortwave energy will move through the upper
level flow as the ridge continues to weaken. Despite this,
Southcentral will remain largely dry. Persistent southerly low-
level flow will continue to favor marine clouds across Cook Inlet
and portions of the western Kenai Peninsula, ANchorage, and Mat-
Su, keeping temperatures a bit cooler than earlier in the week.

-LM/SEB

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Wednesday evening)...

The short-term forecast remains on track for Southwest Alaska,
the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN), the Bering Sea, and the Aleutians.
Looking at water vapor imagery, a strong ridge over Southcentral
Alaska continues to slowly move and extend westward across
Southwest Alaska through the rest of today. An upper-level low
near the Pribilof Islands continues to spin and move south towards
the Eastern Aleutians (Nikolski/Unalaska/Akutan) by tonight and
Monday morning.

The big story across Southwest will be the warm temperatures,
aside from morning low stratus, over the next couple of days. High
temperatures across Southwest will range from the low to high 70s
with cooler temperatures, in the 60s, along the coast Monday
through Wednesday. Tuesday afternoon will be the warmest day with
temperatures near or touching 80 degrees in the Kuskokwim Valley.
Along with the warm temperatures, some instability will also build
in conjunction with day-time heating. Expect mostly showers along
the Western Alaska Range this afternoon and evening and again
Monday afternoon and evening. There is a better chance (50 to 70%)
for showers and thunderstorms with more coverage on Tuesday due
to a weak vorticity maximum forecast to move across Southwest
during maximum heating. Along the Kuskokwim/Kilbuck/Ahklun
Mountains will see the best lightning potential for Tuesday. More
showers are likely (60 to 70% chance) along the terrain for
Wednesday.

Farther out west, showers continue for Nikolski/Unalaska/Akutan
through the rest of today and into Monday morning before tapering
off. Areas of low stratus, mist, and fog will persist across the
Bering Sea, Pribilofs, and along the Aleutian Chain through much
of the short-term period. An upper-level shortwave and associated
surface low move eastward off of Kamchatka and into the western
Bering by Tuesday morning. This will bring a round showers to
Shemya for Tuesday. Rain with this system moves east to Adak/Atka
by tuesday evening into Wednesday. As of now, rain stays confined
from Shemya to Adak/Atka due to the strong ridge in the central to
eastern Bering. A stronger shortwave and surface low in the North
Pacific will lift towards the southern AKPEN by Wednesday
evening. A push of warm southerly to southeasterly flow will
accompany the front as moderate to heavy rain moves into the AKPEN
beginning Wednesday afternoon. Some light rain may make it as far
north as the Bristol Bay Coast by Wednesday evening. Stay tuned
for forecast updates regarding the evolution of this North Pacific
low in regards to Wednesday`s forecast and beyond.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

A Gulf low is set to bring rain and wind for the Alaska
Peninsula and Kodiak Island on Thursday. There is higher
confidence (50%) of reaching significant rainfall thresholds in
the Alaska Peninsula. Showers for Southwest Alaska and the
Aleutians out to Unalaska. There is a minimal chance of
precipitation for Southcentral from a blocking high over eastern
Alaska. The blocking high is also responsible for warmer than
average temperatures for Southcentral Thursday through Sunday.

The pressure difference from the system and ridge has the
potential to generate winds sustained at 35 kts (40 mph) in
Shelikof Strait. The southern tip of Kenai Peninsula also has the
chance (lower confidence) to see hazardous winds.

The Gulf low weakens and continues to generate showers for
Southwest, Alaska Peninsula, and part of the Aleutians (previously
stated) Friday through Saturday. On Sunday, a low originating
from the North Pacific will enter the Gulf and interact with the
weakening Gulf low. There is minimal model agreement on further
evolution of the low . It is important to note that the system
would generate flow from the tropics, which would enhance moisture
and bring high precipitation values.

-SS

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...The potential for patchy fog and low stratus, especially
over the inlet, will continue through the TAF period. This may
lead to short periods of MVFR or lower conditions in and around
the terminal, mainly overnight into the morning, similar to the
past couple days. Aside from the fog and low stratus potential,
VFR conditions and light winds are expected.

&&

$$