418
FXAK68 PAFC 170026
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
426 PM AKDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3: Tonight through Saturday)...

A low pressure system lifting into Southwest Alaska is pushing a
front northward across Southcentral this afternoon. The front is
accompanied by a thin band of precipitation which is rapidly
diminishing in strength as the bulk of upper level support lifts
to the northwest and the remaining disturbance aloft is quickly
sheared apart over Southcentral. As a result, while some light
rain showers are expected to push through the Susitna Valley and
into eastern Prince William Sound over the next few hours,
precipitation will quickly diminish in coverage and areas further
to the north and east are not expected to see much more than a
possible isolated, sporadic rain shower. Gusty southerly winds
have already developed for the typical gaps with a strengthening
coastal ridge. Wind gusts are not expected to exceed about 30 mph
for the Turnagain Arm, Knik Valley, or Copper Valley winds.

Heading into Thursday, weak ridging aloft nudges in from the
north with the exit of the Southwest Alaska low. This will
contribute to clearer skies and drier conditions, though high
temperatures are expected to be similar (or possibly a few
degrees warmer for some locations), since a generally cooler air
mass moves in behind the weakening front tonight. Thursday night,
a large, complex longwave trough out west will begin to eject a
series of weak shortwaves from along the Alaska Peninsula into
Southcentral. Uncertainty still remains with the timing and track
of these shortwaves, however the general idea appears to be
similar to the feature tracking through Southcentral today. This
would bring a front across Kodiak Island Thursday night, where
the best chance of rain is. The front then lifts to the Kenai
Peninsula Friday morning as it begins to weaken. As a result,
precipitation amounts and chances decrease heading north and east
up toward Anchorage and further inland across Southcentral on
Friday. Rainfall amounts appear generally lower than today with
less robust upper-level support. By Saturday, a growing North
Pacific ridge nudges into the Gulf of Alaska and exerts its
influence over Southcentral, leading to favorable chances for
another mostly clear and dry day - a pattern that has potential to
stick around into at least early next week.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday)...


A low in Bristol Bay will continue to cause rain showers over
coastal areas of the SW Mainland and Alaska Peninsula, Bristol Bay
wave heights ranging from 4 to 8 feet and wind gusts between 25
to 35 mph into late this evening. These conditions will diminish
in the Alaska Peninsula late this evening as the low dissipates
over the SW Mainland overnight. However, rain showers will
continue overnight in the Kuskokwim Delta. A short- lived ridge
moves into the area overnight but departs tomorrow afternoon.
Another round of rain and wind arrives late tomorrow afternoon and
continue into Friday.

A stationary low in the Bering Sea will continue to steer
multiple smaller low pressure systems into the Central Aleutians
east to the SW Alaska Mainland this week. The first of these lows
remains south of the Aleutians as it moves northeastward through
the North Pacific. It reaches the Alaska Peninsula early Friday
morning. However, rain and southerly winds from the low are
expected from the Central Aleutians to the Alaska Peninsula from
Thursday morning through Friday morning. A second low bringing
renewed rain and windy conditions moves through the North Pacific
crossing into the Bering Sea Friday evening. Though models differ
on its exact location, the trend of the low reaching the Bering
Sea by crossing over the Central Aleutians remains likely. Cooler
temperatures will persist into the end of this week.


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Sunday morning the pattern will be lead primarily by a mature
upper-level low pressure system in the Bering Sea, with a ridge of
high pressure building in the Gulf of Alaska. A front will be
situated across the eastern Aleutians/southern Alaska Peninsula and
Bering Sea, spinning off into an independent weak low pressure
system near Kodiak Island by late Sunday morning. Through the
late weekend into the early work week, an unsettled pattern may
persist for the Southcentral and Southwest regions of mainland
Alaska, with weak features spinning in from the anchored low in
the western Bering. The strength of the subsequent low pressure
systems that form off in the Gulf of Alaska initially appear
fairly weak, given the proximity to the strong ridge in the
northern Pacific.

-CL

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...A front moved through the area earlier this afternoon,
leaving behind Turnagain Arm winds which will persist through
around midnight tonight. A light sea breeze will tomorrow
afternoon. VFR cigs and vis are expected through the TAF period.

&&


$$