483
FXAK68 PAFC 130011
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
411 PM AKDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

High pressure ridging persists over much of Southcentral Alaska
through the end of the week. On the western edge, a front
extending off a North Pacific low is pushing towards Kodiak
Island this afternoon. Rain is expected to reach Kodiak Island
this afternoon, spreading northward over the southern and western
portions of the Kenai Peninsula and Kenai Mountains, and along
the Western Alaska Range tonight through Thursday morning. The
wave propagates into the Susitna Valley, weakening as it
approaches. This will lead to a chance for some light
precipitation to fall across the Anchorage Bowl and MatSu area
late tonight/early Thursday morning with chances diminishing later
Thursday morning.

Skies are expected to clear up, becoming partly cloudy to mostly
sunny as the wave passes and the high pressure ridging becomes the
dominant feature once again. Expected increasing temperatures
later this week into this weekend, with temperatures in the
70s for most areas. Inland areas will be warmer, the Copper River
Basin and Susitna Valley could see temperatures reach into the
low 80`s Saturday afternoon. There is a chance for isolated
thunderstorm development Friday and Saturday afternoon with warmer
temperatures, clearer skies, and a weak shortwave passing through
Saturday.

KM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Saturday evening)...

Currently, an upper-level ridge continues to re-orient in a north
to south fashion over Southcentral Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska.
An upper-level low is currently situated over the western Bering
and digging southward to the south-central Bering through Friday.
This configuration, with the low in the Bering, and the high over
the Gulf, has put Mainland Southwest Alaska within a southerly
flow regime. A system lifting from the North Pacific will bring
rain to much of the Pacific-side of the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN)
the rest of today through through Friday afternoon. The Bering-
side of the AKPEN will be showery at times, but steady rain will
be mitigated by the downslope drying effect of southeasterly winds
aloft. Rain across the AKPEN will push into Mainland Southwest
late this afternoon to early this evening starting with Bristol
Bay. Rain persists into Thursday across Southwest as shortwaves
embedded in the southerly flow continue to lift over the area from
the North Pacific.

Southwest finally sees a drying trend for Friday as steady rain
tapers off. Temperatures will warm into the middle to upper 70s
for interior locations with upper 60s to low 70s near the coast.
These warmer temperatures, coupled with building instability will
help to kick off a round of showers and isolated thunderstorms
Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Along the Western Alaska
Range, the Kilbuck/Kuskokwim Mountains, and into the Interior
Kuskokwim Delta have the best shot to see lightning activity with
this round of convection. High temperatures remain about the same
for Saturday afternoon. However, temperatures could touch 80
degrees from Sleetmute to Stoney River. There is a small chance,
10 to 30 percent chance of this happening. Another round showers
and thunderstorms are likely for Saturday afternoon and evening as
well across Southwest as instability builds during the afternoon
hours. Depending on how guidance handles the evolution of an
upper-level in the vicinity of Southwest on Saturday, will dictate
shower and storm coverage. Right now, the best shot for lightning
activity will along the Mountain ranges across Southwest.

Looking farther out west, fog and low stratus occupy much of the
Bering Sea from the Pribilofs and along the Aleutian Chain. These
conditions look to continue through Friday. The next weather-maker
lifts up from the North Pacific in the form of a strong upper-
level shortwave and associated surface low. The low will send
moderate to heavy rain into Nikolski/Unalaska/Akutan through
Saturday. Sustained gale-force easterly to southeasterly winds are
likely along the marine zones on both the Pacific and Bering
sides of the Eastern Aleutians Saturday. These strong winds then
move east to the marine zones along the southern AKPEN Saturday
evening. Moderate to heavy rain also moves east to the southern
AKPEN by Saturday evening with light to moderate rain moving into
the Pribilof Islands. This low is poised to move into the south-
central Bering through Sunday morning. the European guidance is a
little slower with the northward progression of the system and
lingers it in the North Pacific through Sunday morning before
entering the Bering Sunday afternoon. Stay tuned to forecast
updates regarding this system, its track, and evolution as this
system looks to impact Mainland Southwest by Sunday.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

By Sunday morning, a ridge will be over eastern portions of
Southcentral. An upper low and associated surface low will be in
the eastern Bering with a front pushing eastward. This front will
move into the western Gulf and Southwest coast Sunday, then move
into the rest of Southwest, Southcentral and the central Gulf
Monday into Tuesday. Conditions will be conducive for rainfall
both around the low and the front, with potentially heavy rainfall
along the front. Rain will continue into Sunday for the eastern
Aleutians and AKPen, and spreads northeastward Sunday to Tuesday
for Kodiak Island and Southwest, then Sunday night into Wednesday
for the northern Gulf Coast and Kenai Peninsula. Additionally,
small-craft to gale force winds will be persistent both along the
front and around the low, especially on Sunday. Strongest winds
will be through gaps and bays of the AKPen.

Positioning and strength of both the front and the low will
determine how far the ridge is pushed east into the Interior/Yukon
by Wednesday, thus determining when Southcentral and portions of
Southwest cool and see rain. With the front progressing from west
to east, Sunday will continue to be warm for Kuskokwim Valley and
Southcentral, especially for the Copper River Basin (high temps
up to 80 degrees). There is uncertainty on when the front pushes
the ridge out, and any additional warm days past Sunday in the
Copper River Basin will be dependent on it. Even then, a cooling
trend is expected to start on Tuesday. For the rest of
Southcentral and the Kuskokwim Valley, some rain is possible in
higher elevations of the Talkeetna Mountains and along the Alaska
Range. Though most locations at lower elevations remain dry,
increased cloud coverage will begin the trend of slightly cooler
temperatures. As the front moves deeper into Southwest and
Southcentral Sunday night into Monday, lighter precipitation will
spill over the mountains into more interior locations (Kuskokwim
and Susitna Valleys). High temperatures drop to at most the low
70s by Monday and upper 60s by Tuesday as more widespread rain
looks to fill in.

The low in the Bering becomes vertically stacked on Monday and
looks to stall through at least Wednesday as it slowly weakens.
Small craft winds likely persist in the Bering through Wednesday.
Additional shortwaves look to rotate around the low into Southwest
and possibly as far as western Southcentral. This would lead to
prolonged widespread precipitation into the middle of the week.
Models are still uncertain on precise timing of each wave and
where the heaviest rainfall will be, but the general pattern hints
at a wet beginning of the week for most of Southwest and much of
Southcentral outside of the Copper River Basin.

-PA

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC... With the stratus deck stubbornly lingering in the terminal
through much of the morning, have leaned towards a few more hours
of MVFR ceilings before ceilings lift to VFR later this afternoon
and evening. The frontal system set to approach tonight through
tomorrow morning has trended further west and away from the
terminal. As such, while cloud cover will increase, rain chances
have trended lower. Ceilings look likely to remain VFR and above
5000 ft.

&&


$$