054
FXAK68 PAFC 300048
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
448 PM AKDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3: This afternoon through Sunday afternoon)...

Key Messages:

* A warm, wet, and windy storm system will impact Southcentral
  Alaska through the end of the week, with lesser impacts
  lingering into Halloween weekend.

* Winds: High Wind Warning is in effect for Anchorage and Eagle
  River Hillsides through late tomorrow morning, with gusts of 60
  to 75 mph expected. Gusts up to 40 to 50 mph for other locations
  that are prone to gusty southeasterly gap winds (lower
  elevations of Anchorage Bowl, Palmer and Wasilla, Copper River
  Valley). For mariners, a barrier jet will bring gale to storm
  force winds across the northern Gulf coast tomorrow.

* Snow: Winter Storm Warning in effect for Northern Susitna Valley
  (including Broad Pass) for 7 to 15 inches of snow until tomorrow
  afternoon, with snowfall rates of up to 1 inch per hour. Winter
  Weather Advisory in effect for Thompson Pass for 10 to 15 inches
  of snow through much of tomorrow, with snowfall rates of up to
  1/2 inch per hour.

* Rain: Flood Advisory in effect for Seward area as heavy rain
  rates persist from late this evening through tomorrow morning.
  Around 3 to 4 inches of rain total could cause small stream and
  localized urban flooding.

Discussion:

A front associated with the remnants of Ex-Typhoon Champi
(currently in the Bering Sea) will bring no shortage of weather as
it moves across Southcentral from now through late tomorrow. The
notable features of this front are the strength of its winds and
and amount of moisture associated with it.

While winds will be the main story in interior areas prone to
downsloping from southerly/southeasterly winds, areas that see
upsloping in this flow regime will likely pick up several inches
of rain with this system. The big winners will be Eastern Kenai
Peninsula and Prince William Sound, where 36-hour rain totals
(from 4 PM this afternoon through 4 AM Saturday morning) will be
on the order of 2 to 5 inches. As such, the Flood Watch has been
upgraded to a Flood Advisory for Seward, where a long duration of
heavy rain rates could lead to localized urban flooding. Winter
Weather products are in effect for places that will likely see
considerable upslope precipitation enhancement yet remain cool
enough to stay all snow: these will be Thompson Pass and in
Northern Susitna Valley leading up to Broad Pass. Overall
confidence is fairly high in precipitation amounts due to great
model consensus and run-to-run consistency. Confidence is medium to
high for snow totals, as warmer temperatures could lead to
periods of rain mixing in, or warmer surface temperatures could
lead to overall less accumulation. As such, snow totals may
fluctuate a bit as we continue to assess the forecast.

One other major area of uncertainty will be winds in Anchorage
Borough. The big question will be whether the vertical temperature
profile will be too stable to mix down the strongest winds from
aloft, and how much of the stronger winds will make it into the
lower elevations of Anchorage as the Turnagain Arm jet responds to
the north-south oscillations in the pressure gradient. Given the
unusually tight east-west pressure gradient, have leaned towards
higher-end model solutions and issued a High Wind Warning for the
Anchorage and Eagle River Hillsides. However, confidence has
remained too low to warrant a wind advisory for the lower
elevations of Anchorage Bowl. Regardless, winds will likely be
quite breezy from this evening through tomorrow morning for much
of Anchorage.

-KC

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

.Key Messages.

* Strong Bering low prompts a High Wind Warning for Adak and Atka,
  as well as a Wind Advisory for Unalaska and Nikolski.

* Gusty winds and showery conditions over much of the rest of the
  Bering.

* Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta
  Coast from Kipnuk to Kwigillingok.


A strong Bering low continues to promote gusty winds and
widespread showers across much of the Bering, Aleutians and
Southwest Alaska. Areas from Nikolski, east, into the AKPEN remain
drier thanks to clearing from a dry slot within the system. This
will be short lived due to clouds filling back in as the storm
continues to progress east through the Bering Sea.

There are numerous gale warnings throughout the Bering Sea
through Friday, with additional storm warnings for marine zones
surrounding Adak and Atka through tonight. Gusts up to hurricane
force will be possible across the Rat Islands and points eastward.
A High Wind Warning is in effect for Atka and Adak. These
westerly winds, which may be further enhanced by the topography,
are forecast to range from 40 to 55 mph with gusts as high as 75
mph. Winds will finally begin to diminish Friday afternoon.

Further east, south to southwest flow remains forecast to impact
the Kuskokwim Delta through Friday. A Coastal Flood Advisory
remains in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast for water levels
reaching 1.5 to 3 feet above the normal highest tide through
Saturday evening.

As the low moves southeastward towards the Gulf of Alaska on
Saturday, winds will flip in direction from southerly to northerly
for coastal Southwest Alaska, alleviating the Kuskokwim Coast of
any lingering flooding concerns. Late Saturday into early Sunday,
a new front from a developing North Pacific low will enter the
western Bering. This front is likely to bring another round of
gusty winds along and ahead of the front.

-SS/BL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

The weather pattern will remain active through the long term as a
broad trough with numerous shortwaves remains over the Bering Sea
and far northern Pacific. Due to the abundance of shortwaves and
interactions along a broad baroclinic zone, models are struggling
to reach a consensus on the track of each respective
storm/shortwave as they move from the Chain into the Gulf. As
such, forecast confidence for the timing of strong winds and/or
rain remains low. Given then abundance of warm air from the
current system, and another warm and wet system on Monday, rain
remains the main precipitation type for most populated areas
throughout the southern Mainland and Aleutians. Modeled snow
levels are forecast to be between 1500 and 2500 ft, but due to the
large spread in storm track there is a large variation in which
areas may be cold enough to get snow. Overall, the forecast
remains noisy, but warmer than normal temperatures and areas of
rain will continue.


&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Low level wind shear is likely to continue through late
afternoon or early evening with a light northerly surface wind at
the terminal and southeasterly winds 25 to 35 kt at 2000 ft or
less. Sometime late this afternoon to early evening, the
southeasterly wind through Turnagain Arm may move over the
airport with winds gusting 25 to 35 kt. The southeasterly
Turnagain Arm wind will move back over the terminal as a
prevailing wind, with gusts to 30 kt, by early Friday morning.

Rainfall will be light and ceilings are expected to be mainly
VFR. However, there may be some brief periods of MVFR ceilings
in heavier showers through this evening. Some more persistent
rain is expected to develop overnight, but VFR conditions are
expected to prevail. Ceilings are then expected to fall into MVFR
conditions Friday morning as winds diminish and precipitation
continues to fill in over the terminal.

&&


$$