800
FXAK68 PAFC 120009
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
409 PM AKDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Friday)...

Key Messages:

- Cooler temperatures are expected today before a warming trend
  develops Wednesday and continues through Friday as upper-level
  ridging rebuilds across Southcentral.

- Rainfall returns to Kodiak Island Wednesday afternoon as a North
  Pacific low approaches, with periods of rain continuing into
  Thursday.


Discussion:

Marine fog and low stratus continue to be observed across portions
of Cook Inlet and the northern Gulf coastal areas. These low
clouds will remain possible through Wednesday morning, especially
near Cook Inlet and along the western Kenai Peninsula, before
gradually diminishing as daytime heating and increasing subsidence
take hold.

On Wednesday, shortwave energy over Southcentral becomes
increasingly diffuse as 500 mb heights rise and upper-level
ridging begins to strengthen. Increasing sunshine and warmer
temperatures are expected across much of the mainland, marking
the beginning of a warming trend following today`s cooler
conditions. Some morning marine fog and low stratus may linger
near Cook Inlet and the western Kenai Peninsula before gradually
eroding through the day.

Farther south, a North Pacific low approaches Kodiak Island
Wednesday, spreading increasing cloud cover and rain across the
island. The upper-level pattern suggests the bulk of the
associated shortwave energy and moisture will remain focused near
Kodiak Island and the western Gulf, limiting precipitation farther
north across the Southcentral mainland.

The warming trend becomes more pronounced Thursday as the ridge
strengthens and expands across Southcentral. Rising 500 mb
heights, increasing subsidence, and periods of sunshine will allow
temperatures to climb further, particularly across the Susitna
Valley, Copper River Basin, and other inland locations. While
temperatures trend upward, the strongest warming is expected
across inland locations, with coastal areas remaining somewhat
moderate by persistent marine influence. Meanwhile, the North
Pacific system remains near Kodiak Island and the western Gulf,
maintaining periods of rain for Kodiak before precipitation begins
to become less widespread.

By Friday, upper-level ridging remains firmly established across
much of Southcentral, allowing the stretch of warmer and
predominantly dry weather to continue. Some marine influence and
morning low clouds may continue along the immediate coast, but
most of the Southcentral mainland should remain dry through
Friday. Forecast confidence remains relatively high in continued
warm and mostly dry conditions across the Southcentral mainland
through Friday.

LM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Friday evening)...

Satellite imagery and surface observations depict a low pressure
system with a high end small craft front with gusts to gale force
moving eastward across the central Bering while upper level cloud
cover can be seen streaming northward from a North Pacific low
that is approaching the Alaska Peninsula. Nestled in between these
two systems is a fog and low stratus bank locked in across the
eastern Bering, North Pacific, and also across the Kuskokwim Delta
region for areas like Bethel. Meanwhile, outside of areas of fog
across Southwest Alaska, isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms have developed with daytime heating and from weak
waves embedded within the 500 mb mean flow of a ridge of high
pressure anchored across the Cook Inlet region of Southcentral.
The focus and highest confidence of thunderstorm activity this
afternoon through early tomorrow morning will be along the slopes
of the Kilbuck Mountains and near Lime Village, with convection
moving north-northeastward with time. This will be the last day of
thunderstorm potential for Southwest Alaska due to the North
Pacific low moving northward through the short term forecast
period, which will bring in a more stable airmass and displace any
instability potential farther north and out of the region.

By mid Wednesday morning, the Bering low nears the Pribilof
Islands as its front slowly weakens. To the southeast, the North
Pacific low continues to lift northward. Its leading front will be
capable of southeasterly small craft winds, with even stronger
winds and gusts flowing through favored gaps, bays, and passes of
the Alaska Peninsula and then across the Bristol Bay waters. The
movement of the North Pacific low will nudge the ridge farther
northeastward and the flow becomes more difluent across Southwest
Alaska heading into Wednesday afternoon. One little "fun" thing
to watch will be how close in proximity the North Pacific low will
come to the Bering low. If close enough, the two lows could do a
Fujiwhara "dance" where one low would spin around the other - or
if one low becomes larger than the other, the larger low could
absorb the smaller low. Regardless, the Bering low is on track to
stay mostly stationary and west of the Pribilof Islands through
Thursday morning, while the eastern most low moves across the
Alaska Peninsula and across Southwest Alaska with rainfall. By
Thursday afternoon, the windward/southeast facing slopes of the
mountains along the Alaska Peninsula are on track to see 1 to 2
inches of rainfall, with lesser amounts in lee of the mountains
for places like King Salmon due to mesoscale downsloping. The
Bristol Bay region is likely to see up to 1 inch of rainfall
through Thursday afternoon.

Southeasterly flow continues in the wake of the North Pacific low
even after it moves across Southwest Alaska, keeping gap areas
like Cold Bay on the windy side and continuing gap winds farther
northward up the coast for the Alaska Peninsula through Friday
afternoon. Meanwhile, the Bering low starts to gain momentum and
heads southward towards the Central Aleutians while
weakening/filling with very low to zero impacts.

-AM


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

The general pattern going into the weekend will have an upper low
over the central Bering with a ridge over Mainland Alaska. On
Saturday, the upper low begins to move to the eastern Bering and
makes an attempt to push the ridge northeastward into the
Interior/Yukon down through the Alaska Panhandle. Temperatures
across the region will begin to cool as cloud coverage increases
from west to east. For most of Southcentral and the Kuskokwim
Valley, cloud coverage doesn`t increase until Saturday night.
Saturday will continue to be warm for these areas with highs in
the 70s at lower elevations with up to 80 degrees in spots of the
Copper River Basin and Kuskokwim Valley.

A surface low from the North Pacific will cross the eastern
Aleutian Chain Saturday and stall in the eastern Bering through
Tuesday. This low will also send a front eastward through the Gulf
and Southcentral Alaska Sunday into Monday. This will make
conditions conducive for rainfall across the Aleutians, the AKPen,
Southwest Alaska, Kodiak Island, and the Gulf Coast into early
next week. Some rainfall may be heavy, especially for the
Aleutians on Saturday, the AKPen, Kodiak Island, and portions of
Southwest Alaska Sunday into Monday, and the northern Gulf Coast
(particularly the southern Kenai Peninsula) Monday into Tuesday.
Though model agreement is fairly good, there are still slight
differences with the strength of the low and progression of the
low and front. Thus, while confidence is high with which areas
will receive the heaviest rain, confidence is still low on exact
timing and amounts of rainfall into early next week. The other
factor with the low moving through will be the potential for
southeasterly winds accelerating through favorable gaps and bays
of the AKPen (such as Cold Bay) Saturday into Sunday.

As the front progresses eastward Sunday into Monday, light
precipitation will spill over the mountains into the rest of
Southwest and Southcentral and linger into early next week. This
will result in cooler temperatures compared to this week. Though
the ridge is pushed east, it likely stays over the Copper River
Basin on Sunday before being pushed out to the Interior/Yukon.
There is also some model uncertainty on both when and how much
the front breaks the ridge down. The longer the ridge holds on,
the later precipitation will spill over into the Copper River
Basin. The Copper River Basin likely sees at least one additional
day of warm and dry conditions compared to the rest of
Southcentral Alaska. Any potential warm days past Sunday will be
determined by how much the front breaks the ridge down. Details
will become more clear in the coming days.

-PA

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC... Fog and low stratus linger along Cook Inlet, and continue
to be the most challenging aspect of the forecast. Given the
clouds lingering near the terminal, the light winds, and the high
dewpoint temperature and relative humidity, the thinking is that
ceilings and visibility will likely remain MVFR and IFR through
tomorrow morning, with brief periods of improvement to VFR. LIFR
ceilings and visibilities remain possible for early tomorrow
morning, but this is looking a little less likely as overcast
skies will likely disrupt radiational cooling and fog formation.

&&


$$