


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
962 FXAK68 PAFC 141253 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 453 AM AKDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today through Wednesday evening)... The upper-level ridge that was in place over the southern half of the state has now shifted southeast with its axis over the Alaska Panhandle this morning. A developing southwesterly flow upstream of the ridge and ahead of an upper-level trough over the eastern Bering is advecting clouds and moisture from Kodiak north to the Kenai Peninsula. The result is a few scattered showers from around Kachemak Bay into the Susitna Valley and western Copper River Basin this morning. The shower activity is expected to become more widespread through the day as a weak surface low over Bristol Bay this morning opens into a trough and slides east along with an upper-level shortwave lifting to the Kenai Peninsula. There is not much moisture for either system to work with, so the shower activity is likely to be enhanced by the southwesterly upslope flow, wringing out over the higher terrain. That said, showers may extend across valley locations and over the Anchorage Bowl later today as the trough axis moves over Cook Inlet and the flow aloft shifts slightly more southerly. Models then diverge a bit with regard to how quickly the trough kicks east, with some guidance indicating a weaker trailing wave sliding east in the wake of the first. If this solution pans out, there may be lingering showers across the Anchorage Bowl and Mat-Su Valleys through Tuesday morning. By Tuesday afternoon, a ridge builds into the Gulf of Alaska. This ridge will allow much of Southcentral to dry out and any lingering isolated showers to push north along the Alaska Range as the flow aloft shifts from the southwest to the southeast. On Wednesday, a north Pacific low will approach from the west. This is where things get complicated as model agreement decreases. Guidance is now clustering the low somewhere near Kodiak Island by Wednesday morning as its surface front advances across the western Gulf and toward the Kenai Peninsula. Uncertainty grows with how quickly the front progresses northeastward through Wednesday as it runs into the ridge. The NAM continues to be the fastest solution and the outlier compared to other models, with the GEM still an outlier with a more easterly track. Given the strength of the ridge and amplification of the longwave pattern, forecast updates this morning favor the slightly stronger yet slower and slightly farther west track of the GFS and EC. Regardless of the track, this system does look to bring rain to Kodiak Island, the Kenai Peninsula, and Prince William Sound by Wednesday morning and evening, respectively, as the front eventually enters the northern Gulf. -JAR/TM && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)... Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows a kaleidoscope of high and low clouds across the Bering and Southwest Alaska this morning, with areas of fog in and around Dutch Harbor and portions of the southern Bering. The weather pattern remains active with a trough quickly approaching Nunivak Island and the Kuskokwim Delta coast, an upper low south of the Alaska Peninsula, and a second trough moving through the Western Aleutians. A chance for scattered showers will persist across Southwest Alaska this afternoon and evening as a result of the first trough. The low south of the Alaska Peninsula is forecast to lift northward through tomorrow, eventually reaching Bristol Bay by Wednesday morning. Expect increasing shower chances to expand northward over the Alaska Peninsula Tuesday night, with widespread shower chances to unfold across Southwest Alaska through Wednesday evening. This will see a cooling trend for Southwest through the middle of the of the week. While a second trough is moving into the Western Aleutians this morning, more notable is a developing low currently over Kamchatka. This low deepens through tomorrow, with a strong front to bring rain and gusty conditions, including gales, into the Central Aleutians by Tuesday morning. Weak ridging over the eastern Bering should weaken the front just as it brings rain to the Pribilof Islands late Tuesday afternoon, with shower activity further along the front also stalling near Unalaska as the front dissipates. There are no changes to the active pattern later in the week with the developing Kamchatka low to amplify over the southern Bering on Thursday. This should see a rather large front push into the Eastern Aleutians and Southwest Alaska Thursday into Friday with renewed rain chances. -BL && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)... The long range forecast for the region starts with a low in the northwestern Gulf of Alaska and another low in the western Bering Sea. Models are continuing to struggle with the placement and evolution of the low in the Gulf of Alaska. The GFS moves the low to the northeast into Canada by Friday afternoon, the Canadian shows the low tracking to the north and being absorbed into the aforementioned Bering low, and the ECMWF has the Gulf low moving due east then dissipating before reaching the Alaska Panhandle by Friday evening. Therefore, confidence on precipitation and sky conditions is still low. Towards the end of the longterm, a blocking high pressure pattern builds across the Copper River Basin and should promote a better chance for less clouds and drier conditions. With little mixing, air quality could become an issue in the region. In the Bering Sea, the low pressure system generally remains over the Bering during most of the longterm while high pressure strengthens over the AK Mainland. The main uncertainty with the Bering low is in regards to how it interacts with surrounding shortwaves/lows and the speed of its surface front. The GFS solution would push the front quickly across SW AK and portions of Southcentral (with the bulk of precipitation across SW on Saturday morning), whereas the Canadian front is slower (with the bulk of precipitation across SW on Sunday morning). Nonetheless, expect an active pattern out west during the long term period. -DD && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions will generally persist for the TAF period, though ceilings will likely be below 5,000 ft. A shortwave trough lifting into Southcentral will bring more clouds and occasional rain showers throughout the day Monday, which could briefly drop ceilings to MVFR. The Turnagain Arm also picks up Monday afternoon with up-inlet flow, which could bring southerly to southwesterly wind gusts up to 20 kts. Winds should begin to relax heading into Monday night. && $$