


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
426 FXAK68 PAFC 190039 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 439 PM AKDT Fri Jul 18 2025 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Monday)... The last vestiges of rain showers associated with a weakening low in the Gulf, east of Kodiak, are pushing into Prince William Sound this evening. Upper level support continues to run out ahead of the low, which will cause shower coverage to continue to diminish and prevent much northward spread of precipitation. Inland locations are not expected to see anything from this feature. A weak coastal ridge and partly cloudy skies have allowed light southerly gap flow to develop for the Copper River Valley and Turnagain Arm. These winds diminish tonight. Heading into the weekend, a ridge of high pressure amplifying in the North Pacific builds north, putting the southern Mainland on its northern periphery. This will allow generally warm and dry conditions to persist. However, a series of weak shortwaves that eject from a large Bering Sea low and ride over top the ridge axis, threatening to bring periods of light rain at times for mainly the western half of Southcentral. There is a slight chance on Saturday for a weakening Bering front to bring light rain to the area, but Sunday looks to have better chances. The most favored area for up to around a tenth of an inch or two would be the western Kenai Peninsula, with, much like the past two disturbances, precipitation chances and amounts decrease to the north and east into Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valleys. With any rain expected to be fairly light, expect valley temperatures to be quite warm Saturday through Monday, with much of Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valleys approaching 70F for highs. Parts of the Copper Basin will approach 80 degrees each afternoon as well. For Monday, southern portions of the region look to remain dry, while continued weak shortwaves riding over the ridge may induce shower activity closer to the Alaska Range. Building surface high pressure over Southwest Alaska will induce strengthening westerly winds out of gaps and across the Gulf of Alaska. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday)... The persistently stationary Bering Sea low begins to move slowly eastward this weekend as high pressure in the North Pacific Ocean builds. Cloudy, foggy and rainy conditions continue through the weekend. A front moving through the Alaska Peninsula and into the Southwest Mainland will continue to bring rain and southwesterly winds to this region through tomorrow afternoon. Onshore winds into the Bristol Bay coastline could reach small craft advisory levels briefly this evening. Consistent model trends the past few days remain so confidence is high for heavier rain showers to move onshore from Dillingham and Aleknagik to Cape Newenham early tomorrow morning. Onshore winds turn more southwesterly to southerly causing rounds of afternoon showers to shift northward along the coast from Cape Newenham to Toksook Bay. The southern edge of these showers move through Bethel and Aniak in the late afternoon hours. Simultaneously, tomorrow afternoon, a heavier band of rain showers move through the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. This includes Cold Bay, Kind Salmon and, late in the afternoon, Iliamna. Behind these main waves of showers, isolated rain, fog and cloudy skies will persist through Sunday. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)... By Tuesday, southern Alaska will be devoid of a significant low pressure system, with the pattern largely driven by a strong ridge of high pressure built over the northern Pacific. This pattern may still work to keep showers across Southwest and Southcentral Alaska with plenty of cloud cover as air continues to flow in from the Bering Sea. Shortwaves coming up and over the ridge will maintain the unsettled pattern along the Alaska Peninsula and into Southwest/Southcentral mainland Alaska. Expect more widespread stratus built across the Bering Sea given the influence from the ridge. -CL && .AVIATION... PANC... VFR conditions will persist. The light sea breeze from early this afternoon is expected to give way to a southeasterly Turnagain Arm late in the afternoon. This should bring in winds with gusts of 15-20 kt this afternoon and evening, then diminish overnight. Expect the westerly sea breeze to return for Saturday afternoon. && $$