518
FXAK68 PAFC 151255
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
455 AM AKDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3/Today through Thursday evening)...

A shortwave trough over the Copper River Basin this morning will
continue to track east, exiting the region later this morning.
Upstream, a more complex pattern is taking hold with multiple
upper-level lows upstream with a weaker ridge nestled between
them, over the southern Bering.

With the exiting trough, the majority of the showers and cloud
cover present over Southcentral yesterday through the overnight
hours will be on the decrease. Southerly flow over the Susitna
Valley this out ahead of a trough/surface front extending south
from a low near Utqiagvik may keep a few lingering showers across
the Talkeetnas toward Broad Pass this morning before this feature
moves east and a shift to a more southeasterly flow takes hold.

South of the upper-level ridge, a deep cut-off low over the
north-central Pacific (south of the eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula) is slowly advancing northeast. A jet streak along the
eastern side of the low is helping force it northward. As it
continues northward through Tuesday, the ridge over the northeast
Pacific ahead of this low will connect with the ridge over the
eastern Bering out ahead of a western Bering low and move across
southern Alaska. As a result, expect decreasing clouds and
warmer/drier conditions for Southcentral through the day Tuesday.

The track of the north-Pacific low becomes a little more
questionable on Wednesday as the ridge settles over Interior
Alaska and blocks the low from progressing northward. Guidance,
however, is beginning to key in on a track that takes the
deepening surface low into Bristol Bay by Wednesday morning then
steering it toward the Kuskokwim Delta by Wednesday evening.

Given this track, the surface front associated with the low will
move across Kodiak Island Tuesday night and push northward across
the Kenai Peninsula Wednesday, bringing rain and some wind.
Guidance continues to diverge on the progression and strength of
the front as it tries to push inland. This model spread increases
with regard to the track of trailing upper level short-waves
Wednesday night through Thursday. Based on this, expect mostly
cloudy skies with rain along the coast and across the western
Susitna Valley and chance of rain for locations along the lee of
the coastal mountains.

As for winds, small craft advisory level winds will develop over
the western Gulf, with a small area of Gales around the Barren
Islands, ahead of the surface low and front Tuesday night through
Wednesday. The building surface ridge ahead of it will lead to
southeasterly gap winds into Southcentral Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Uncertainty in the strength and progression of
the front lead to low confidence in the strength of gap winds.

-SEB/TM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

Everything is on track with the Southwest Alaska forecast on
Tuesday. A trough is currently pushing through the Seward
Peninsula this morning with light rain clipping northern portions
of the Kuskokwim Delta. The rest of Southwest is largely dry,
though widespread cloud cover persists from the overnight hours.
Expect another cool day with minimal rain chances early on.
Tonight into Wednesday, a North Pacific low and its front are
forecast to lift northward into Southwest with what should be an
expanding area of rain and scattered showers from Wednesday
morning into Wednesday night. Thursday should see rain chances
linger across Southwest as a near stationary low over the Bering
sends a wave of low pressure through the region. Precipitation
will be more scattered or even isolated in nature on Thursday, but
coverage should once again encompass all or most of the region.

Farther west, the stationary low over the Bering is forecast to
move little through the weekend. This will keep low stratus and
fog in the forecast for the next several days over the Bering with
a broad region of small craft conditions and gale force gusts
spanning from the Central Aleutians into Saint Matthew Island.
Southwesterly flow around the base of the low will allow for
additional troughs and waves of low pressure to cross the
Aleutians with periods of rain and windy conditions likely through
the end of the week. In the immediate future, a front is quickly
approaching the Central Aleutians and is bringing gusty
southwesterly winds and increasing rain chances through much of
the day today. Behind the front, visibility should improve as rain
clears out, but low stratus will remain in its wake, helping to
keep the sun from making an appearance. The front will eventually
stall over the Pribilof Islands and Eastern Aleutians tomorrow,
quickly dissipating as yet another trough emerges from the North
Pacific. This trough will track from the Eastern Aleutians into
the Alaska Peninsula from Thursday into Friday.

-BL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The big picture has a broad upper level low in the Bering Sea and
a building ridge of high pressure extending from the North
Pacific and across South Central Alaska through the forecast
period. For South Central, the building, blocking ridge of high
pressure will promote drier conditions across much of the region.

In the West, the upper level low pressure system generally
remains over the central Bering Sea during the longterm. The main
uncertainty with the Bering low is in regards to how it interacts
with surrounding shortwaves/lows and the speed of its surface
front. The GFS/Canadian solutions would push the surface features
quickly across SW AK whereas the European model now tends to have
the features move slower across the region. Nonetheless, expect an
active pattern out west for the forecast period.

-DD

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will generally prevail for ANC, but cloud
ceilings this morning will likely hover around or just below 5,000
ft. Any remaining shower activity should wrap up quickly this
morning, although guidance suggests that ceilings between 12-18z
could dip down to high end MVFR. Up-inlet flow returns this
afternoon as clouds scatter out, which will bring southwesterly
winds that could gust up to 15 kts before diminishing overnight.


&&


$$