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FXAK68 PAFC 030113
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
513 PM AKDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday)...

Currently, Southcentral is under mostly zonal flow as the trough
which brought some snow yesterday has lifted well into Canada.
Moisture leftover from yesterday`s system has helped maintain mid-
level clouds along the Alaska Range, otherwise skies have mostly
cleared across the region. A front from a low south of the Alaska
Peninsula (AKPen) is entering the Southwestern Gulf this
afternoon. Easterly winds up to gale-force and rain are currently
seen along this front.

The low south of the AKPen lifts into the Gulf through the
weekend. Its front moves in first, reaching Kodiak Island by this
evening and the northern Gulf Coast by tomorrow morning. Cloud
cover increases from south to north as the front moves north. With
increased cloud cover likely lingering through Monday,
temperatures (especially low temperatures) will be mostly seasonal throughout
the weekend. Interior locations likely don`t see clouds fill in
until tomorrow morning and are the places where the coldest lows
(down to the low 20s) are expected. For Kodiak Island and much of
the northern Gulf Coast, Kenai, and up to the Mat-Su, increasing
cloud cover will keep low temperatures warmer tonight and through
the weekend. Easterly to northeasterly winds up to gale-force and
rain (sometimes heavy) accompany the front as it moves northward
through the Gulf. These conditions reach Kodiak Island this
evening and the northern Gulf coast tomorrow morning. Some coastal
ridging may enhance the barrier jet off the northern Gulf Coast
throughout Saturday into Sunday morning, especially as the low
moves into the Gulf. Coastal ridging may also enhance some
favorable gap winds throughout Saturday as well (Copper River and
Turnagain Arm). Precipitation will be heaviest along the northern
Gulf Coast, with the highest expected amounts in western Prince
William Sound given easterly winds. Warming temperatures will
raise snow levels to 3500-4000 ft, meaning some higher elevations
likely stay warm enough to receive rain. Strong downsloping winds
likely keeps the western Kenai, Anchorage/Mat- Su, and Interior
Southcentral initially dry. As the low occludes and weakens
starting Saturday evening, winds begin to weaken as well. This
coincides with more upper level vorticity moving into Southcentral.
Chances for precipitation for interior locations of Southcentral
increase Saturday evening and peak on Sunday as upper level
support continues.

Another low moving in from the Bering looks to have influence
over portions of Southcentral starting on Monday. Confidence is
high with cloud cover lingering over most of Southcentral and
precipitation persisting along the Northern Gulf Coast and
portions of Kodiak Island, There is lower confidence right now for
precipitation to linger for interior portions of Southcentral on
Monday as well (40 percent chance). Cold air aloft looks to move
over the Gulf. With warmer temperatures from the system this
weekend, some instability looks to be in place. A few isolated
thunderstorms may occur in the Gulf on Monday (20-30 percent
chance).

PA

&&




.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

An active weather pattern across the Bering Sea contrasted by a
relatively inactive pattern over Southwest Alaska continues today
and into the weekend. Satellite imagery this afternoon shows clear
skies across nearly all of Southwest Alaska, while a broad,
elongated low pressure system south of the Alaska Peninsula
promotes easterly flow across much of the Bering and offshore flow
over Southwest Alaska. Remaining gusty easterly winds and
lingering showers along the Alaska Peninsula and eastern Aleutian
Islands will continue to diminish through this evening into
Saturday as the low consolidates and moves into the western Gulf.
Over Southwest, the cooler temperatures that have settled over the
area will slowly warm as the offshore flow weakens and the next
low pressures system enters the western Bering this afternoon
through this evening.

The new, stronger low pressure system entering the western Bering
Sea will continue to spread a gale-force front and rain across
the far western Aleutian Islands this afternoon through this
evening before reaching Adak by late tonight, and Unalaska by late
Saturday morning. Behind the front, strong west-southwest winds
just to the south of the low center will bring an additional push
of strong winds along the Aleutian Chain as it tracks eastward.
The core of strongest winds will remain to the south of Shemya,
but is expected to bring gusts up to 60 mph to Adak by Saturday
evening and gusts up to 50 mph to Nikolski and Unalaska for
Sunday. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 4 AM to 10 PM AKDT
Sunday for Unalaska and Nikolski. Additionally, expect widespread
rainfall associated with this low as it sweeps the southern Bering
similar to the previous low track. Areas of isolated
thunderstorms embedded within the front and low center will be
possible (30 to 40% chance) as it tracks eastward. By late this
weekend into early next week, shower chances across Bristol Bay,
Lower Kuskokwim Valley, and AKPen increase as the low slowly
transitions east into the Gulf.

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

The long-term weather pattern across Southern Alaska, The Gulf of
Alaska, and the Bering Sea will remain on the active side. There
is good agreement between guidance that a low will remain in the
Gulf for Tuesday and Wednesday before it moves off the east
towards Southeast Alaska for Thursday. This will mean that steady
rain will continue for Prince William Sound, the Eastern Kenai
Peninsula, and the northern Gulf Coast Tuesday into Wednesday
before it tapers off to showers for the second half of Wednesday.
Rain will make it inland to the Western Kenai Peninsula,
Anchorage, the Mat-Su Valleys, and Copper River Basin. However,
rain that makes it inland with this system Tuesday and Wednesday
will be more showery and not as steady as it will be on the coast.
Showers linger across Southcentral for Thursday, but steady rain
will have moved to Southeast Alaska by then. Attention then turns
to a strong Bering Sea front that is poised to move into the
Southwest Gulf for Friday. Confidence is low on its strength
however. Kodiak Island will be the first to see gusty southeast
winds and rain from this system with moisture also being pulled
back into the Eastern Kenai Peninsula ahead of the front on Friday.

Across Southwest Alaska, a relative lull in the active pattern is
expected Monday into Tuesday as winds gradually diminish across
the Aleutians and AKPen.

Attention then turns to a potentially stronger North Pacific low
approaching the Aleutians Wednesday into Thursday. Confidence is
around 50 to 70 percent that this system will impact the region
Thursday into Friday but only 30 to 40 percent in the exact track
and magnitude of the strongest winds. Current guidance suggests
gusts could reach 50 to 60 mph across portions of the Aleutians
and AKPen Thursday into Friday. Small changes in the low track
could significantly shift where the strongest winds and heaviest
precipitation occur.

No change from previous discussion... Looking ahead toward this
weekend, models are synoptically in good agreement in the mid-
range forecast, featuring a low moving toward Kodiak Island from
the North Pacific and another low into the Bering Sea from the
west. Precipitation with east to southeast winds will be more than
likely for Southcentral, especially closer to the Northern Gulf
coast and Kodiak Island. By Sunday, the front extending from the
Bering Sea low reaches Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula
bringing rain, snow, and southerly flow across the area. As the
low sinks southward Monday, models diverge on how far south the
low will dip. Generally, the low appears to pass through the
Alaska Peninsula and near Kodiak Island/Western Gulf. As this
pattern sets up through the first half of next week, cold air
advection and northerly winds will become enhanced through gaps
along the Aleutians. If the low sinks south farther east, the
Alaska Peninsula would see more cold air advection and those
northerly winds. While temperatures overall for southern Mainland
are trending cooler in the short term, some moderation of that
trend is expected toward more seasonable norms, but will remain on
the cooler side.

LM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist
through much of the TAF period. Fog potential cannot be entirely
ruled out though. However, chances are low (10 to 20%) with
surface dewpoint depressions being between 6 to 10 degrees.
Northerly winds will pick up towards the end of the TAF period,
late Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon as a low in
the southwest Gulf strengthens and moves north. Precipitation
associated with the low`s front looks to remain mostly confined to
Prince William Sound and the Eastern Kenai Peninsula with
Anchorage remaining dry with downslope east-southeast winds aloft.

&&
$$