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FXAK68 PAFC 121347
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
547 AM AKDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Rain continues spreading across Southcentral through this morning
as a shortwave rolls through. The wave is fast moving and
precipitation is expected to fizzle for the western Kenai
Peninsula north into Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valleys and east
into the Copper River Basin into this afternoon. Coastal areas of
the eastern Kenai Peninsula, the Prince William Sound and east
along the north Gulf coast, as well as along the Wrangell
Mountains and Alaska Range will see ongoing precipitation through
at least Monday afternoon. A separate front pushes over Kodiak
Island this afternoon, bringing another round of rain for the
island, before pushing northward, spilling rain back into the rest
of Southcentral late tonight. With tonight`s front, another round
of small craft winds are expected across the western Gulf of
Alaska and along the north Gulf coastal waters. Small craft winds
will diminish through Monday afternoon.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Tonight through Tuesday)...

Key messages:

 - The forecast remains on track as the remnants of Typhoon Halong
   continue to bring dangerous High Winds to the Kuskokwim Delta
   and Storm Surge Flooding to many communities along the
   Kuskokwim Delta Coast and lower Kuskokwim River.

 - High Wind Warnings remain in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta
   until 10 AM this morning.

 - A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for the Kuskokwim
   Delta Coast until 10 PM tonight.

 - Another powerful storm system will move out of the Pacific on
   Tuesday. All signs indicate that this storm will take a more
   southerly track across the southern and eastern Bering Sea and
   impact all of Southwest Alaska Tuesday through Wednesday. Stay
   tuned as we work to hone in on the most likely track and
   weather impacts.

Satellite imagery early this morning shows the remnants of
Typhoon Halong at near peak intensity at 960 mb as it continues to
track to the north and east towards Norton Sound. This storm has
performed as advertised overnight bringing impressive wind gusts
to both the Pribilof Islands as well as the Kuskokwim Delta. The
forecast and expected weather hazards expected from this powerful
storm remain on track as impacts are likely to be felt through
this morning and into this afternoon.

In addition to the damaging wind threat across the Kuskokwim
Delta throughout this morning, the biggest concern continues to be
the storm surge and coastal flooding impacts. The favorable storm
track has allowed for peak surge of water from the Bering Sea to
nearly perfectly align with this morning`s high tide cycle. Tidal
gauge observations from Kwigillingok and Kipnuk this morning has
led to high confidence that peak water levels are likely on the
higher end or exceeding the forecasted range, especially for
Kipnuk where this could be the highest water levels seen in the
past decade. Significant flooding already occurring coinciding
with this morning`s high tide cycle for coastal villages is
expected to peak early this morning and slowly decrease throughout
the day today but remain elevated through the second high tide
cycle this afternoon. The alignment of high tide and storm surge
also gives confidence that there will be some minor flooding along
the lower Kuskokwim River. A Flood Advisory from Bethel south to
the mouth of the Kuskokwim River remains in effect until Monday
morning. Communities that often see flood impacts in this
scenario include Tuntutuliak and Napakiak.

The storm will exit northward up the west coast of Alaska this
afternoon through this evening, leading to slowly improving
conditions as we head through the day. A long-wave trough will
remain over the region, with numerous weak features transiting the
Bering Sea, Aleutians, and Southwest Alaska through Monday night.
Attention will then shift to the development of another large and
strong storm system over the North Pacific on Tuesday. As always,
there is fairly large model spread and uncertainty in storm track
due to differences in timing of a short-wave digging out of Russia
and interacting with a low crossing the North Pacific. The one
consistent trend in guidance over the past couple days is to move
up the timing of intensification of the low which causes it to
slow down and take a more southerly track along the Aleutians and
southern Bering Sea. Although this does not look like a repeat of
the current storm, there is still potential for significant
weather impacts across the eastern Bering Sea and Southwest
Alaska, so stay tuned to forecast updates over the next few days.

-JH

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

The long term forecast starts with weak ridging over the Gulf of
Alaska which will recede, allowing a strong frontal system to
advance in from the west, delivering heavy coastal rainfall and
gusty winds across the coastal regions of Southcentral AK. Down-
sloping winds may reduce rainfall in the Anchorage and the Mat-Su
Valley. However, strong winds could reach Prince William Sound and
Anchorage Bowl, depending on the front`s eventual track across
the region. Models are in fair agreement with this scenario. Zonal
flow will develop as the weekend approaches, decreasing the winds
and reducing rain intensity. Scattered showers showers may linger
in higher elevations and coastal areas.


In the Bering, a low from the North Pacific arrives Wednesday and
into Thursday, tracking eastward of extratropical cyclone
Halong`s path, towards Bristol Bay and the Alaskan Peninsula,
bringing gale-to-storm force wand heavy precipitation to the
Kuskokwim Delta to the AKPEN. Coastal flooding and erosion is
again possible along this region. As the weekend starts, a more
zonal flow will setup across the state, allowing a brief respite
from active weather before another possible deep low approaches
the Central Aleutians by the end of the weekend. This is quite far
out, so the evolution of this event is still somewhat uncertain.
It will be important to monitor the forecast as updates are
issued.

-DD

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...Low-level wind shear is likely this morning with northerly
winds at the surface and southeasterly winds aloft until the
southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds move into the terminal around
midday. Winds will likely gust in the 25 to 30 kt range. Expect
VFR ceilings above 5000 ft to prevail, though passing light
showers may lower ceilings below 5000 ft. A round of light rain
passes through late tonight into Monday morning, which could drop
ceilings to MVFR. At the same time, the Turnagain Arm winds are
likely to bend out of the terminal, allowing winds to become
light. Southerly winds gusting as high as 30 kt arrive late Monday
morning into the afternoon.

Quesada

&&


$$