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FXAK68 PAFC 140042
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
442 PM AKDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Currently, cloud cover is present over much of Southcentral this
is due to some moisture that flowed in despite strong ridging over
Southern Alaska. The ridge remains in place on Saturday and drier
conditions prevail. This will allow for temperatures to reach the
mid to upper 70s for inland areas. The Susitna Valley around
Talkeetna and the Talkeetna Mountains could see isolated
thunderstorms from elevated instability, but the region may be too
dry to see this realized. The rest of Southcentral will be mostly
sunny. By Sunday, the ridge will be pushed eastward from a
shortwave from the west and a shortwave dropping from the north.
The northern shortwave will provide instability and lift for
thunderstorm chances (30 to 50%) in the Copper River Basin. The
greatest chances for thunderstorms will be north of Glennallen.
There is also a slight chance of thunderstorms for the Susitna
Valley on Saturday. There is uncertainty on how far the shortwave
from the north will drop on Saturday. If it drops further south,
there will be better chances for thunderstorms.

Moving into Sunday, a pattern shift takes place as a strong low
moves over Bristol Bay, driving a strong front into Southcentral.
The front will bring rainfall into Kodiak Island and into Coastal
Southcentral. Depending on the orientation of the front, more or
less rainfall will make it into the mainland. The Copper River
Basin, however, will remain drier at this point. Gusty gap winds
around Kodiak Island will occur, with the possibility of gap
winds for inland areas such as the Turnagain wind.

-JAR

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Sunday evening)...

Broad southerly flow continues across Southwest Alaska this
afternoon and evening as an upper-level low remains in the central
Bering Sea and slowly moves south towards the southwestern Bering
through Friday. There is also an upper-level low in the North
Pacific that is poised to lift to the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) by
Friday and across the Southwestern Mainland through Saturday.
Showers within the broad southerly flow will taper off across
Southwest through tonight.

The upper-level low in the North Pacific, previously mentioned,
will be the focal point for active weather across Southwest for
Friday and Saturday. High temperatures will warm into the middle
to upper 70s across the interior with 60s to near 70 for the coast
Friday and Saturday. The warm temperatures, along with moisture
at the surface with dew points in the upper 50s, will allow for
instability to build Friday and Saturday afternoons. This setup
will allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop across across
the Southwestern Mainland. The focus for showers and storms Friday
will be along Interior Bristol Bay and the Interior Kuskokwim
Delta. The focus for showers and storms move a little more inland
on Saturday with the Kuskokwim Valley and Lime Village joining
Interior Bristol Bay and Interior Kuskokwim Delta with increased
lightning activity. Due to the nature of this moist, unstable, and
somewhat tropical airmass overhead for Friday and Saturday, some
of the storms could persist into the overnight hours.

Looking farther out west, the upper-level low, in the currently
in the Bering, will bring showers at times for Adak/Atka Friday as
it moves to and over the Central Aleutian Chain. This upper-level
low will interact with a stronger shortwave lifting northward
through the North Pacific Saturday morning. This interaction will
produce a swath of steadier and heavier rain across Adak/Atka for
much of Saturday. The front associated with the surface low will
also bring moderate to heavy rain to the Eastern Aleutians and the
southern AKPEN through Saturday. Wind-wise, still expect a
corridor or easterly to southeasterly sustained gales across the
marine zones on the Pacific-side of the Eastern Aleutians and
southern AKPEN Saturday. Some southeasterly gales make it into the
southeastern Bering and Bristol Bay Saturday evening and Sunday.

The low center itself moves into the southern Bering by late
Saturday night to early Sunday morning. Rain and gusty
northeasterly winds move into the Pribilof Islands by Sunday
morning. Rain and southeast winds also move into the Southwestern
Mainland by early Sunday morning as well with Dillingham and King
Salmon the first to see the effects of the front. Rain advances
north to Interior Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Valley by mid to
late Sunday morning. The Kuskokwim Delta will be showery at times
Sunday, but downslope southeasterly flow will limit steadier rain
from making it into the area. Rain continues across Southwest, the
AKPEN, and the Pribilof Islands Sunday afternoon and through
Sunday evening. Stay tuned for forecast updates regarding the
thunderstorm forecast for Friday and Saturday across the Southwest
Mainland, and for updates to the evolution of the North Pacific
low poised to lift into the Bering for Saturday night and Sunday.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

By Monday morning, there is general agreement a ridge will be
over the Alcan border into the Alaska Panhandle while a vertically
stacked low will be over the Y-K Delta with its front over the
northern Gulf and southern Southcentral. By this point, rainfall
will likely be ongoing for much of Southwest/northern AKPen and
Southcentral west of the Chugach and Talkeetna Mountains/Prince
William Sound. This rainfall may be heavy for Southwest, the
Susitna Valley, and the northern Gulf Coast. The front, as well as
shortwaves rotating around the low, will push the ridge further
into Canada on Monday. Any remaining areas with warm temperatures
will begin a cooling trend on Monday. The Copper River Basin may
still see high temps in the 70s if frontal progression is slow
enough to keep the ridge close, but all other places will only top
out in the mid to upper 60s. Rainfall progresses eastward to
coastal locations east of Prince William Sound on Monday as the
front moves onshore. Winds offshore the northern Gulf Coast may be
up to gale- force Monday morning.

Though models diverge with progression of the low after Monday
(some maintain it as a low over the Seward Peninsula, others open
the low up into a trough), the general pattern looks to remain
wet through the week for both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska as
shortwaves continue to rotate around into southern Alaska. Heaviest
precip will likely be along the western Alaska Range into the
Susitna Valley on Tuesday and the northern Gulf Coast through
Wednesday. Temperatures will also continue to cool throughout the
week.

For the Bering, Aleutians, and southern AKPen, shortwaves rotating
around the low to the north will likely maintain overcast skies
with occasional showers through the week.

-PA

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&


$$