553
FXAK68 PAFC 141258
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
458 AM AKDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The upper level ridge has build back over Southcentral Alaska for
today. There remain some mid and high level clouds riding over
the top of the ridge, but there should be plenty of sunny periods
and widespread warm temperatures today. That is except for Kodiak
Island where a stationary front continues to bring southeasterly
flow off the Gulf resulting in rain and fog for the eastern side
of the Island.

The warm conditions and fact that the ridge is not overly strong
means that the atmosphere is moderately unstable today. Though
there remains plenty of low level moisture for showers and
thunderstorms, there is not much lift in the lower levels to
initiate much convection in the valley areas. The mountains,
especially the Alaska Range, Talkeetna Mountains and Wrangells,
should provide enough elevated heating to produce some afternoon
and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms.

The ridge will begin to break down on Saturday with and upper
level wave tracking up Cook Inlet from the southwest and another
one attempting to clip the northeastern part of the Copper River
Basin from the Interior. This will keep the instability and
afternoon convection potential to the middle and northern parts of
the Susitna Valley and Copper Basin for Saturday. This should
also cause temperatures to not be as warm on Saturday as they will
be today.

Saturday night into Sunday, a pattern shift will take place as a
strong low moves over Bristol Bay, driving a front into Southcentral.
The front will bring rainfall into Kodiak Island and Coastal
Southcentral Saturday night with the rain spreading into more
protected areas such as Anchorage and the Susitna Valley on
Sunday. The Copper River Basin, however, will remain drier at this
point. This front will also increase the gap winds on Sunday,
especially for the usual suspects: Turnagain Arm, the Knik River
Valley and along the Copper River.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday)...

An upper-level low over the North Pacific is lifting toward the
Alaska Peninsula today and will move across the Southwestern
Mainland through Saturday. Meanwhile, another upper-level low over
the Bering Sea will gradually move toward the Central Aleutians.
These features will bring increasingly active weather to Southwest
Alaska and the Bering through the weekend.

The North Pacific upper-level low will be the focal point for
active weather across Southwest for today and Saturday. High
temperatures will warm into the middle to upper 70s across the
interior, with 60s to near 70 for the coast. The warm
temperatures, along with surface moisture and dew points in the
upper 50s, will allow for instability to build during the
afternoon hours. This setup will allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop across across the Southwestern Mainland.
The focus for showers and storms Friday will be along Interior
Bristol Bay and the Interior Kuskokwim Delta. The focus for
showers and storms today will be along Interior Bristol Bay and
the Interior Kuskokwim Delta. The focus shifts a little farther
inland Saturday, with Kuskokwim Valley and Lime Village joining
Interior Bristol Bay and the Interior Kuskokwim Delta with
increased lightning activity. Due to the moist, unstable, and
somewhat tropical airmass, some storms could persist into the
overnight hours.

Farther west, the upper-level low over the Bering will bring
showers at times to Adak and Atka today as it moves toward the
Central Aleutian Chain. This upper-level low will interact with a
stronger shortwave lifting northward through the North Pacific
Saturday morning. This interaction will produce a swath of
steadier and heavier rain across Adak and Atka for much of
Saturday. The front associated with the surface low will also
bring moderate to heavy rain to the Eastern Aleutians and southern
AKPEN through Saturday. A corridor of easterly to southeasterly
sustained gales is expected across the marine zones on the Pacific
side of the Eastern Aleutians and southern AKPEN Saturday, with
some southeasterly gales reaching the southeastern Bering and
Bristol Bay Saturday evening into Sunday.

The low center itself moves into the southern Bering by late
Saturday night to early Sunday morning. Rain and gusty
northeasterly winds move into the Pribilof Islands by Sunday
morning. Rain and southeast winds also move into the Southwestern
Mainland by early Sunday morning as well with Dillingham and King
Salmon the first to see the effects of the front. Rain advances
north to Interior Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Valley by mid to
late Sunday morning. The Kuskokwim Delta will be showery at times
Sunday, but downslope southeasterly flow will limit steadier rain
from making it into the area. Rain continues across Southwest, the
AKPEN, and the Pribilof Islands Sunday afternoon and through
Sunday evening. Stay tuned for forecast updates regarding the
thunderstorm forecast for Friday and Saturday across the Southwest
Mainland, and for updates to the evolution of the North Pacific
low poised to lift into the Bering for Saturday night and Sunday.

Heading into Monday, the upper-level low remains the dominant
feature across Southwest Alaska and the eastern Bering,
maintaining broad cyclonic flow across the region. Model guidance
generally agrees on keeping the closed low in the vicinity of
Southwest Alaska, though differences remain in its exact position
and strength. This will favor continued unsettled conditions with
periods of showers across much of Southwest and the eastern Bering
through Monday. The persistent upper-level trough and cooler air
aloft will also bring cooler temperatures compared with the warmer
conditions expected today and Saturday.

LM/DN

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

By Monday morning, there is general agreement a ridge will be
over the Alcan border into the Alaska Panhandle while a vertically
stacked low will be over the Y-K Delta with its front over the
northern Gulf and southern Southcentral. By this point, rainfall
will likely be ongoing for much of Southwest/northern AKPen and
Southcentral west of the Chugach and Talkeetna Mountains/Prince
William Sound. This rainfall may be heavy for Southwest, the
Susitna Valley, and the northern Gulf Coast. The front, as well as
shortwaves rotating around the low, will push the ridge further
into Canada on Monday. Any remaining areas with warm temperatures
will begin a cooling trend on Monday. The Copper River Basin may
still see high temps in the 70s if frontal progression is slow
enough to keep the ridge close, but all other places will only top
out in the mid to upper 60s. Rainfall progresses eastward to
coastal locations east of Prince William Sound on Monday as the
front moves onshore. Winds offshore the northern Gulf Coast may be
up to gale- force Monday morning.

Though models diverge with progression of the low after Monday
(some maintain it as a low over the Seward Peninsula, others open
the low up into a trough), the general pattern looks to remain
wet through the week for both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska as
shortwaves continue to rotate around into southern Alaska. Heaviest
precip will likely be along the western Alaska Range into the
Susitna Valley on Tuesday and the northern Gulf Coast through
Wednesday. Temperatures will also continue to cool throughout the
week.

For the Bering, Aleutians, and southern AKPen, shortwaves rotating
around the low to the north will likely maintain overcast skies
with occasional showers through the week.

-PA

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through much of
the period. By Saturday morning, a frontal system pushes into the
area which will increase cloud coverage and lower ceilings.

&&


$$