626
FXAK68 PAFC 031351
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
551 AM AKDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Sunday
through Tuesday evening)...

The shortwave trough responsible for yesterday`s widespread rain
over the western half of Southcentral has weakened significantly
overnight as it beings to shear apart. There is, however, enough
energy associated with the trough for persistent scattered shower
activity over the Talkeetnas and across portions of the Matanuska
Valley and southern Susitna Valley this morning. These showers
should taper off by mid-morning as the wave slides farther south.

A secondary wave moving into the Copper River Basin later today
will likely aid in a redevelopment of scattered showers, mainly
over the higher terrain. An isolated thunderstorm is also
possible; however, convective parameters are marginal at best. If
there is a lightning strike or two today, it will likely occur
along the foothills of the eastern Talkeetnas, Wrangells, and over
the central Chugach north of Cordova.

Yet another upper-level wave looks to move from the Interior
southeast across the Copper River Basin for Monday afternoon,
riding overtop an upper-level ridge building across Southcentral
from the west. This feature may produce a few more isolated
showers for the eastern half of the Basin. Otherwise, the trough
will likely bring an increase in coastal sea breezes due to an
increase in the pressure gradient between the trough and a
building surface ridge over the Gulf.

One challenging aspect of the forecast in the short-term will be
whether any widespread marine stratus or fog develops underneath
the building surface ridge over the Gulf during the next day or
two. There is some model guidance that not only develops this low
stratus deck, but brings it through Kennedy Entrance and up Cook
Inlet Monday morning. The forecast is weighted slightly to this
solution given the patches of low stratus over parts of the Gulf
this morning. However, widespread marine stratus is not currently
expected for locations north of Homer and Kenai.

For other locations away from the coast, expect a continued
clearing and warming trend with temperatures pushing well into
the 70s by Tuesday.

-TM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Wednesday)...

The large low in the Bering continues to impact the weather of
Southwest Alaska as it remains quasi-stationary west of the
Pribilof Islands. The main impact at this point is continued
southeasterly winds through the eastern Aleutians and the
coastal region of the mainland. These winds can be up to small
craft strength, particularly through gap regions of the Eastern
Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula. The other impact is in the
form of widespread light to moderate rainfall across the eastern
Bering Sea. This rainfall is also pushing into the coastal
southwest mainland. Meanwhile, further inland areas are under the
influence of slack flow. This is allowing for clearer skies and
lighter winds. However, waves moving off of the Alaska Range will
allow the eastern parts of the Lower Kuskokwim Valley to have a
chance of showers through the forecast period as more waves pass
through.

Another front from the low will pick up steam on
Monday, first pushing into the Pribilof Islands, Eastern
Aleutians, and Alaska Peninsula. Periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall and an uptick in winds will accompany the front. The
front will push inland by late Monday morning, bringing the
aforementioned conditions to the coastal regions of Southwest
Alaska. Tuesday will be more of the same as more fronts move off
of the low, though they won`t be as strong as Monday`s front.
Things get more interesting on Wednesday as the remnants of
Tropical Storm Krosa move up from the north Pacific into the
Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula, interacting with the low
already present. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds up to gale force
may impact the Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay as the lows merge.
It isn`t 100% certain what the outcome of this event will be, but
some form of heavy rain and gusty winds are expected at this
point.

-JAR

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 Wednesday through Saturday...

The main feature for South Central, Southwest, and the Aleutians
in the day 4 through 7 time frame is a broad upper level low
moving generally easterly along the Aleutian Chain. As with any
low, there will be embedded pockets of vorticity rotating through
the broad cyclonic flow sparking areas of rain. At this point,
the most likely scenario includes periods of showers from the
central and eastern Aleutians to Kodiak through the period. By the
end of the period, showers can be expected all along the Gulf
Coast. Otherwise, seasonal temps with generally rain-free
condidtions are expected.


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds are expected through the TAF
period. Lingering low-level moisture and light winds may allow for
the development of patchy fog as higher level clouds clear out
Sunday night into Monday morning.

&&


$$