157
FXAK68 PAFC 031324
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
524 AM AKDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Friday)...

The next two days look awfully nice across Southcentral with
Friday also not looking too shabby. This is due to a ridge that
stretches across most of mainland Alaska from the the Bering Sea
into the Yukon Territory. This will keep sunny skies over
Southcentral today with the warmest temperatures of the season so
far for most areas. Thursday will remain mostly sunny for most of
the area, though temperatures will likely be a tick lower than
today. Another difference from today is that by late Thursday, a
weak shortwave will skirt the Copper River Basin. This will likely
bring some shower activity to the Wrangell Mountains and eastern
portion of the Alaska Range. It should also increase the northerly winds
through the Alaska Range a little bit as well.

On Friday, the upper ridge will show signs of weakening as a
trough begins to dig into Western Alaska out of an Arctic low.
This is not a sharp trough and will mainly pave the way for a much
stronger trough to dig into the area this weekend. However, for
Friday, this should mean some increasing clouds but still
relatively warm temperatures. There will also be increased shower
activity over the Mountains across the region for Friday
afternoon and evening.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday morning)...

A weak front remains along the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) this
morning. As a result, scattered light rain showers continue for
places like Chignik, Perryville, Nelson Lagoon, and Port Heiden.
Unalaska remains within a northerly flow regime off of the Bering
Sea and continues to contend with low stratus and misty
conditions. Showery activity across the AKPEN looks to taper off
through this afternoon with low stratus lifting this afternoon
across Unalaska. Expect another warm and dry day across Mainland
Southwest Alaska with temperatures into the 70s. Middle to upper
70s are possible for the Kuskokwim Valley and along the Western
Alaska Range. Expect similar conditions for Thursday, except a few
degrees cooler. This cooling trend will continue into Friday and
Saturday as a series of weak upper-level shortwaves will dig south
over Mainland Southwest and bring increased cloud cover.

Farther out west, low stratus continues across much of the Bering
Sea, from the Pribilof Islands and west, due to a persistent
ridge of high pressure. The ridge over the Bering will begin to
weaken and break down through today, but it will still have
influence over much of the Bering through Thursday as drier air in
the middle to upper-levels of the atmosphere moves over the
eastern to north-central Bering. A weak North Pacific low will
send its front northward to the vicinity of Adak/Atka by early
Friday morning. There is some uncertainty on how far north rain
will make it. Therefore, went with chance PoPs for Friday across
Adak/Atka for now. Regardless, any rain will be light in nature.
This system could make it to Nikolski/Unalaska by Saturday
morning. This will again depend on the northern extent of the
front as to whether any rain makes it into those locations.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

A more active pattern is expected to re-emerge this weekend and
into early next week as Arctic troughing pushes into mainland
Alaska, resulting in cooler temperatures across most of the state.
These troughs will break down the ridge of high pressure by
Saturday, bringing isolated to scattered showers and the
possibility for convective activity to return to the Southern
Interior through the period.

Two upper-level lows will track across the North Pacific, the
first of which moves to the south of the Central Aleutians by
Saturday and toward Southeast Alaska through Sunday. This leading
low has trended weaker and more progressive in recent model runs,
with increased confidence of it passing South of the state with
more minimal impacts. There remains quite a bit of run-to-run
uncertainty regarding the track of the second low, with ensemble
means placing it near the central Aleutians by Tuesday night. This
system appears to have a greater potential to track further north
and interact with an upper trough, potentially bringing impacts
to Southwest and Southcentral later next week.

-CW

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

$$