504
FXAK68 PAFC 071300
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
500 AM AKDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Flood Warning remains in effect for the Yentna River including
  Lake Creek through 1PM.
- Warmer and mostly dry for Southcentral through the weekend.
- Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers possible in the
  Upper Susitna Valley and Northern Copper River Basin through
  Saturday. A lightning strike or two is possible along the Tok
  Cut Off.

Discussion:

High pressure over the Gulf is continuing to build across southern
Mainland as a weakening low pressure over northwestern Alaska
sends mostly benign, weak shortwaves moving west to east across
Southcentral. While most of Southcentral is generally trending
warmer and drier, isolated to scattered showers will linger near
the Alaska Range. The Copper River Basin could see a lightning
strike or two during the warmest hours of the day today.

Temperatures will warm across the region through the weekend. The
warmest will be the Copper River Basin, where high temperatures
will be in the mid to upper 70s. Mat-Su, Anchorage, and the Kenai
Peninsula will be in the upper 60s to low 70s tomorrow, then low
to mid 70s this weekend and into next week. Coastal regions
around the Gulf warm to the mid to upper 60s for the weekend.

Though flow is relatively light, weak troughs moving across the
region will promote westerly winds through Copper River Basin and
wind-prone gaps such as Whittier. Other wind-prone terrain gaps
surrounding Copper River Basin could bring brief gusty winds 15 to
20 mph into the Basin. Westerly winds may also increase through
the Barren Islands into the Gulf for the next couple of days.

The low over northern Alaska will continue to transit east across
the state and while flow weakens further for Southcentral Sunday,
another shortwave off that low could dip south into Copper River
Basin and additional showers near mountains from orographic lift
may return Sunday afternoon.

Rux/PA

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Low stratus lingers across much of the Kuskokwim Delta into the
Lower Kuskokwim Valley this morning as light rain showers taper
off across interior Southwest Alaska. Conditions trend drier this
afternoon into the weekend as an upper low over the North Slope
departs to the north and east. The weak low pressure system that
has remained nearly stationary over the Aleutian Chain overnight
will continue to slowly track south into the North Pacific today
and dissipate between two strengthening ridges of high pressure
building across the western Bering and the southern Mainland.
Under the ridge, expect widespread low stratus and pockets of fog
to persist across the Bering with periods of clearing skies
through the weekend for the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol
Bay.

By Saturday morning, the next low from the Russian far east
tracks south into the Bering and across Saint Matthew Island
through Saturday evening. Its front brushes the Southwest Alaska
coast from the Kuskokwim Delta to the Western Capes Saturday into
Sunday morning. Light rain associated with this low will
overspread Nunivak Island and the Pribilof Islands beginning
Saturday before continuing south towards the Aleutians for Sunday.

High temperatures begin a warming trend from the high 50s into
the mid to high 60s that continues through the weekend. Locations
farther inland may see low to mid 70s by Sunday.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

Early next week, troughs of low pressure will have moved through
the South/Southeastern Bering Sea, over the Aleutians, and into
the northern Pacific Ocean. Model solutions have come together
slightly, leading to more confidence that by Monday morning a low
pressure system will be just south of Unalaska. That being said,
the strength of these lows are not impressive, lending to the idea
of weaker winds and rainfall totals anyway. Through Tuesday, as
the troughs move through, a col may develop over the
southern/central Bering Sea, leading to a mixed pattern of showers
and confused winds and waves.

Over the Southern Mainland of Alaska, weak areas of high and low
pressure are expected to develop through the late weekend and
early next week. The resulting weather will be diurnally- driven
showers this weekend into next week. This pattern supports more of
a scattered shower regime as opposed to widespread stratiform.
The challenge will be to gauge instability each afternoon to
determine whether or not lightning will be a threat with any
robust showers that form. Right now, it looks like the Copper
River Basin, along the Talkeetna Mountains, and along the Western
Alaska Range feature the most instability through the long-term
period.

-CL

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC... Light southwest winds in the morning transition to
northwesterly this afternoon. Ceilings may lower to MVFR levels
early in the day as a weak upper level wave passes over the
terminal.

&&



$$