079
FXAK68 PAFC 111355
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
555 AM AKDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:
- Cooler conditions are expected today before a warming trend
  develops Wednesday and continues into Thursday as upper-level
  ridging rebuilds across Southcentral
- Rainfall returns to Kodiak Island Wednesday.


Discussion:

Generally, the forecast remains on track. Marine fog and low
stratus are observed on satellite this morning across portions of
Cook Inlet and northern Gulf coastal areas. Low-level flow will
become more southerly, allowing a stronger push of marine air into
Cook Inlet and adjacent areas. Marine fog and low stratus may
extend inland during the morning, particularly across the western
Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and portions of the Mat-Su Valleys.
Similar to yesterday, afternoon and evening showers will remain
largely confined to higher terrain as weak shortwave energy moves
southward from the Interior. While thunderstorm potential remains
low, an isolated lightning strike or two can not be ruled out
across the Copper River Basin and portions of the Southcentral
Interior. Otherwise, stable conditions along the coast and in the
valleys will favor mostly dry weather.

By Wednesday, shortwave energy becomes more diffuse as upper-
level heights begin to rise across Southcentral. Southerly low-
level flow may continue to support areas of morning marine fog and
low stratus around Cook Inlet and the western Kenai Peninsula.
However, clouds should gradually diminish through the day, with
increasing sunshine and rising heights allowing temperatures to
rebound from Tuesday`s cooler readings. Meanwhile, a North Pacific
low approaching the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island will
increase precipitation chances and breezier conditions around
Kodiak Island.

The warming trend continues Thursday as upper-level ridging
becomes more established across Southcentral while the more active
trough and North Pacific low remain primarily to the southwest.
Rising heights and increasing sunshine will support another
increase in temperatures, especially across inland locations.
Coastal areas may remain somewhat cooler where marine influence
persists, with additional overnight and morning fog or low stratus
possible near Cook Inlet. Moisture associated with the North
Pacific system may approach the southern Kenai Peninsula, but the
building ridge should limit its northward progression, keeping
most of Southcentral dry through Thursday.

LM/Rux

&&

Another night with developing fog and low stratus unfolded across
portions of Southwest Alaska. Nighttime microphysics satellite
imagery shows widespread low stratus across much of the Kuskokwim
Delta coast and points further south into the Alaska Peninsula
this morning. Weak high pressure overhead and a moist atmosphere
has allowed temperatures to cool to their saturation point with
temperatures and dewpoint temperatures in the mid 50s. By late
morning/early afternoon conditions should begin to clear or
improve. Interior portions of Southwest Alaska will see
temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s this afternoon. A
passing shortwave will provide enough lift for increasing showers
and a few thunderstorms across the high terrain. As mentioned in
the previous forecast discussion, some of these showers and storms
may advect off the terrain and to in and around the Bethel area
with southerly to south- southeasterly steering flow. However,
instability could be strong enough in the valleys of Interior
Bristol Bay (Koliganek/New Stuyahok) for some showers and isolated
storms to form (30% chance). Lightning activity will taper off
during the evening hours as heating is lost and with the days
becoming shorter.

Farther to the west, a weak surface low is making its way into
the western Bering Sea. Winds associated with this low will remain
small-craft with some gale-force southeasterly gusts along the
Western and Central Aleutians. This low will also spread rain from
the Western Aleutians to the Central Aleutians today and
tomorrow. Nikolski/Unalaska/Akutan will see scattered showers
Wednesday and less in the way of steady rain like the Western and
Central Aleutians due to surface high pressure lingering in the
eastern Bering.

A North Pacific low looks to send its front northward into the
Pacific-side of the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) through Wednesday.
Coupled with southerly to southeasterly flow aloft, rain will be
enhanced at times for locations such as Chignik and Perryville.
Rain will be more showery and scattered for the Bering side of the
AKPEN due to the downslope southerly to southeasterly flow. Rain
from this system makes it into Mainland Southwest (Bristol
Bay/Kuskokwim Delta) by early Wednesday evening. Rain continues
for Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta through much of Thursday
before slowly tapering off to scattered showers Thursday evening.
Showers will continue across the Pacific side of the AKPEN with
southerly to southeasterly flow persisting through Thursday. By
Thursday afternoon and evening Upper-level energy from Kamchatka
and Siberia move into the Bering and consolidate which will form a
new Bering low in the west-central Bering with showers and low
stratus likely for the Pribilofs by then.

BL/DN

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through
Monday)...

The general pattern starting Friday will have an upper level low
reside over the central Bering with a ridge over Mainland Alaska.
A surface front lingering from Southwest Alaska to the Gulf may
maintain some showers through the day across the Bristol Bay coast
to areas along the northern Gulf Coast. Kodiak Island and the
Pacific side of the AKPen will also see rainfall continue with
upsloping winds. Most of Southcentral and parts of Southwest,
especially north of the Cook Inlet/Chugach Mountains, and the
Kuskokwim Valley will be warm and dry Friday. Out west, a surface
low occludes in the western Bering on Friday, maintaining
scattered showers and up to small- craft winds for much of the
Bering.

By Saturday, the upper low begins to move to the eastern Bering
and makes an attempt to push the ridge northeastward into the
Interior/Yukon down through the Alaska Panhandle. Temperatures
across the region will begin to cool as cloud coverage increases
from west to east. Temperatures in the Copper River Basin will
still be warm Saturday with the ridge still overhead keeping
clouds away.

A surface low from the North Pacific will move through the
Aleutians/AKPen into Southwest Alaska Saturday and Sunday. This
will be conducive for rainfall throughout the weekend, which may
be heavy at times. There are model differences with both the
strength of the low and whether the low takes a more northerly
track through the eastern Bering into the Southwest Coast or a
southerly track starting south of the AKPen before moving into
Bristol Bay. Depending on the strength and track, southeast winds
through particular gaps and bays like Cold Bay could also be
strong Saturday through Sunday. Either way, this low also looks to
send a front into the Gulf Saturday evening through Sunday. This
will likely also promote rainfall (possibly heavy) and potentially
strong winds for Kodiak Island and the southern Kenai Peninsula.
As the front continues northward on Sunday, precipitation looks to
spill over into the rest of Southcentral and Southwest and linger
into Monday. Details about this weekends system will become more
clear in the coming days.

-PA

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Low stratus and areas of fog have begun to overspread Cook
Inlet this morning. Fire Island currently separates reduced
ceilings to the west and VFR conditions currently over the
terminal. Light southerly winds to become variable at times with
vicinity fog through the morning hours. VFR conditions are
forecast this afternoon with light southerly flow and MVFR
conditions developing later this evening.


&&


$$