613
FZAK80 PAFC 152322
ICEAFC

Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program
322 PM AKDT Wednesday 15 October 2025

FORECAST VALID...Monday 20 October 2025

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to moderate.

SYNOPSIS...A low near the Alaska Peninsula will move to the northern
Gulf of Alaska on Thursday and then weaken. Widespread low pressure
across the Chukchi Sea, High Arctic, and Beaufort Sea will weaken as
high pressure builds. High pressure will strengthen across the High
Arctic and Beaufort Sea from Friday through Monday while weak low
pressure lingers across the Chukchi Sea and southern Beaufort Sea.

-BEAUFORT SEA-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 45 to 140 nm-
PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 45 to 60 nm-
PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 20 to 45 nm-

The main ice edge in the Beaufort Sea extends from to 72 8N 154
55W to 70 13N 141 17W and continues east into Canadian waters.
The ice edge is open water.

From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Beaufort
Sea extends from 60 nm north of Ikiak to 30 nm north of Demarcation
Point and continues east into Canadian waters. The ice edge is open
water.

FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Sea ice lingers within protected areas along the
north coast. Southeasterly winds shift easterly on Thursday, with
the strongest winds developing along the north coast. Moderate
easterly winds will persist across the southern Beaufort/north coast
through Monday. Winds shift northeasterly on Monday. As winds shift
easterly starting on Thursday, air temperatures will decrease to or
just below freezing across the southern Beaufort Sea. Air
temperatures will dip into the teens (F) across the rest of the
Beaufort Sea. Expect sea ice growth within the main ice pack for
much of the forecast period and for sea ice to track to the west at
about 10-15 nm per day.

-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-
PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm-

The main ice edge in the Chukchi Sea extends from 72 8N 154 55W to
169 47N 72 52W and continues west into Russian waters. The ice
edge is open water.

From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Chukchi
Sea extends from 60 nm north of Ikiak to 225 nm northwest of Point
Franklin and continues west into Russian waters. The ice edge is
open water.

FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Over the main ice pack, southwesterly winds will
briefly shift northerly on Thursday. From Friday through Sunday,
moderate easterly winds will develop before shifting northeasterly
on Monday. Expect sea ice to track south 5-10 nm on Thursday, west
10-15 nm per day from Friday through Sunday, and then southwest 5-10
nm on Monday. Expect sea ice growth within the main ice pack for
much of the forecast period.

&&
Fenrich