873
FZAK80 PAFC 200018
ICEAFC

Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program
318 PM AKDT Wednesday 19 November 2025

FORECAST VALID...Monday 24 November 2025

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate.

SYNOPSIS...A low over the Chukchi Sea weakens as it slowly tracks to
the northwest. A low complex over the Bering Sea will merge into one
low over Bristol Bay/Alaska Peninsula late Wednesday into Thursday
and then weaken as it moves eastward across the Gulf of
Alaska/Alaska mainland. On Friday, a high pressure ridge forms over
the Bering Sea and then builds northwestward into the Chukchi Sea,
Beaufort Sea, and High Arctic from Saturday through Monday. Another
low develops over the western Aleutians on Saturday and then extends
its front across the southwest Alaska coast by Monday.

-BEAUFORT SEA-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 45 to 80 nm-
PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 45 to 80 nm-
PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 45 to 80 nm-

Ice covered.

FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Southerly winds have created a few small
polynyas off of the shorefast ice. Winds will shift easterly on
Thursday and then northeasterly on Friday, which will help to fill
in the polynyas as ice moves back towards the coast/shorefast ice.
The ice pack will also move to the west to southwest around 5-10 nm
on Thursday and Friday. On Sunday and Monday, winds become light and
variable as a high pressure center builds across the Beaufort Sea. A
warmer air mass across the area will also slow down ice growth for
the majority of the forecast period.

-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-
PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-
PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-
PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-

Ice covered.

PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-
PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-
PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-
PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-
PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-
PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm-

The main ice edge in the Chukchi Sea extends from near Wales to 66
43N 165 12W to 68 59N 168 45W to 70 10N 163 41W to 70 14N 167
46W and continues northwest in Russian waters. The ice edge is open
water.

From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Chukchi
Sea extends from near Wales to 42 nm southwest of Cape Krusenstern
to 56 nm northwest of Point Hope to 35 nm west of Icy Cape to 115 nm
west of Icy Cape and continues into Russian waters. The ice edge is
open water.

FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is moderate. A low pressure system over the western
Chukchi Sea is currently bringing southerly winds across the main
ice edge and easterly winds across Kotzebue Sound. As the low
weakens and exits to the northwest, expect winds across the ice edge
to shift mostly easterly on Thursday and then northeasterly on
Friday. A brief pause in the ice edge advancing (due to southerly
winds) should resume once the northeasterly winds return by Friday.
Northwesterly winds overtake Kotzebue Sound and the southwestern
Chukchi Sea by Friday, and these winds are expected to spread across
the remainder of the Chukchi Sea on Saturday. On Sunday, winds are
mostly expected to be southerly except for across the Kotzebue Sound
where winds will likely be northerly. On Monday, widespread easterly
winds are expected.

Given that the winds will be quite variable in both speed and
direction throughout the forecast period, forecast confidence is
moderate. However the ice edge is generally expected to advance
westward 10-15 nm on Thursday, southward 10-15 nm on Friday and
Saturday, and then there will likely be a brief pause in the ice
edge advance Sunday into Monday while southerlies push the ice edge
back. Expect sea ice growth within Kotzebue Sound to continue
throughout the forecast period.

-BERING SEA-

PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 nm-
PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-
PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island
PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-
PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-
PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-
PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-
PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-
PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-
PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

The main ice edge in the Bering Sea extends from near Platinum to 60
11N 165 16W to 61 11N 167 31W to 64 11N 165 27W to 64 47N 168
9W to 65 23N 168 34W to 65 48N 168 17W. The ice edge is open
water.

From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Bering
Sea extends from near Platinum to 40 nm northwest of Kipnuk to 60 nm
north of Cape Mohican to 18 nm south of Nome to 42 nm southwest of
Port Clarence to 17 nm southwest of Wales to 12 nm northwest of
Wales. The ice edge is open water.

FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence
is low. A low complex over the Bering Sea is currently bringing
southeasterly winds across the Alaska coastline through Norton
Sound. On Thursday, winds across the eastern Bering Sea will shift
generally northwesterly which will return ice growing conditions.
Northwesterly to northerly winds will persist through Saturday and
then shift northeasterly on Sunday and easterly on Monday. Norton
Sound through the Yukon Delta has a better chance to see the ice
edge begin to advance again late week on the order of 5-10 nm/day.
As winds shift northeasterly on Sunday, a colder air mass is
introduced and sea ice growth becomes more likely overall for the
western/southwestern coast of Alaska.

-COOK INLET-

PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-

There is ice growing in Turnagain Arm and Knik Arm, primarily on the
mudflats. This ice is getting moved off the mudflats with the tides.

FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is
high. Through Friday, air and water temperatures remain too warm for
widespread ice growth, but diurnal ice on the mudflats remains a
possibility. Over the weekend and into Monday, temperatures cool to
below freezing and sea ice growth becomes more likely.

&&
Fenrich