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FXAK69 PAFG 312326
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
326 PM AKDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Wet snow should taper off overnight across the Alaska Range.
  Overall snow totals should be in the 3 to 7 inch range with
  the highest amounts at higher elevations.

- Cool and breezy weather will wind down this evening for much
  of the Interior with overnight lows in the mid 30s to low 40s.

- Clearing overnight tonight will allow for some valleys to
  fall near freezing temperatures on Tuesday morning.

- Temperatures are expected to warm through Wednesday with
  highs in the mid to upper 50s across most of the Interior,
  with locally lower temperatures in the southeast where cloud
  cover and a few showers may linger.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Gusty northwest winds along the West Coast will diminish to
  around 15-20 mph overnight and into Tuesday.

- Winds will increase again with the arrival of the next system
  in the Bering Wednesday into Thursday with wind gusts ranging
  from 25-45 mph. Greatest gusts are expected to be along St
  Lawrence Island as the main system is expected to remain in
  the western Bering Sea.

- Widespread precipitation returns Wednesday. Rainfall totals
  are expected to be around 0.10-0.50 inches of rain with the
  highest impacts expected along the southern Seward Peninsula,
  Norton Sound Coast, and YK Delta. Rainfall is expected to be
  especially heavy across St Lawrence Island with locally higher
  totals up to an inch possible.

- Temperatures are expected to remain relatively steady with
  highs near 50 Tuesday before cooling to the mid 40s Wednesday
  as the next system begins to impact the area. Overnight lows
  are generally expected to be in mid to upper 30s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Cool and unsettled weather remains through midweek. Bands of
  mainly light rain and snow will continue to work eastwards
  across the North Slope and Central Brook Range through
  Wednesday. Another few inches of snow could fall from
  Anaktuvuk Pass to Atigun Pass as well as up towards Kaktovik.

- Further west along the Northwest Arctic coastline, convective
  bands of snow and rain showers will push ashore from the open
  waters of the Chukchi. Some of the bands of precipitation
  could be briefly heavy in spots as additional disturbances
  move across the region.

- High temperatures are expected to trend cooler through
  midweek with temperatures dropping to the upper 30s to mid 40s
  by Wednesday. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid 30s
  with some areas in the western Arctic Plains falling below
  freezing into the upper 20s Tuesday night. Areas across the
  Brooks Range are expected to remain colder with lows in the
  low 20s.

- Expect another round of coastal rain and wind as well as
  heavier snow for the western Brooks Range late in the week as
  another storm system tracks into the Bering.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Remnants of the previous system socks in much of Eastern Alaska
providing isolated showers through the afternoon. A winter
weather advisory remains in effect for the Eastern Alaska Range
through early Friday morning for snow and breezy winds.
Attention then turns to another front moving E/SE off the
Chukchi with the potential to bring additional snowfall across
the North Slope. Heaviest amounts are expected to remain
confined to the higher elevations. However, we are monitoring
the chance for a few convective showers off of the NW Arctic
Coast early Tuesday morning. Another low is expected to set up
in the Western Bering around Thursday. While coastal impacts are
expected to be minimal, a moderate amount of rainfall is
expected across the West Coast by the start of the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The overall forecast remains on track. Satellite imagery from
this afternoon shows a swath of clouds covering Eastern Alaska.
This is from the first, of many, polar lows that have been
moving SE across the state. A few scattered showers remain
embedded within this area as well and is expected to continue
through the rest of the day. Looking over the West Coast, upper-
level clouds from the polar low have diminished which has
allowed for drier conditions. With the recent precipitation,
this is providing isolated low stratus decks, mostly along river
valleys, which may keep temperatures from warming up as much
today. Meanwhile, a front from the next polar low begins to move
across portions of the NW Arctic Coast.

The trough over Eastern Alaska will continue to deepen into the
northern Gulf of Alaska. This is supported with it being in the
left exit region of a 150kt upper-level, northwesterly jet set
up over south-central. This jet will push this newly developed
closed low farther SE over the panhandle. This will make room
for the next front shifting SW from the Chukchi on Tuesday. This
front is associated with a 522 decameter low that will be
spinning in the Arctic for much of the short-term period. This
will allow for multiple shortwaves to move across the North
Slope and cooler temperates to begin digging farther SE. The
cooler temperatures will also be dependent on the overnight
cloud cover from the residual moisture and energy from the
current trough over Eastern Alaska.

Diving into this next front a bit more, models are showing the
potential for some of the snow band to be convective in nature.
This can be seen in skew-t analysis with the boundary layer
holding its strength as the entire column cools with the NW
flow. That being said, the best chances for these convective
snow bands will be over the NW Arctic Coast. And since the
cooler temperatures will not be set up initially, these will
likely start off as a rain/snow mix and eventually wet-bulb into
mostly snow. The associated upper-level trough will continue to
shift SE, shifting far enough south to set up the potential for
another round of moderate snow for the Central Brooks Range.
There is relatively good agreement amongst models with totals to
be between 4 and 7 inches of additional snow through Wednesday
night.

By the time Wednesday rolls around, ridging will begin to build
further north over the Bering, ahead of a 530 decameter low
moving into the Western Bering. This building ridge will bring
a NW-SE oriented warm front NE from Bristol Bay. A decent
atmospheric river will be associated with this front and is
expected to bring another round of moderate to heavy
precipitation across the West Coast. The warm front is expected
to continue shifting NE and stretch further east as some of the
energy will get caught into the trough, that had previously
moved over the Central Brooks Range, as it continues to shift
east. Precipitation amounts across the Interior will be strongly
dependent on the strength and the positioning of the ridge that
builds up ahead of the low in the Bering. This will then
determine how much moisture from the AR will be able to get
wrapped around the Alaska Range and advect across the Interior.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The extended begins on Thursday with a ridge building in
throughout Alaska,and orienting itself over the eastern portion
of the state. There is a likelihood of warmer, and drier
conditions for the Eastern Interior throughout the weekend,
while the ridge lingers. At the same time, a low pressure system
will be situated over the Bering Sea, and as Friday morning
approaches, this low will slowly track eastward, allowing for a
series of shortwaves to reach the West Coast by Saturday
morning. The coastline will likely experience warmer
temperatures and wet weather, and chances of higher wind gusts
along the Bering Strait, as the low pressure system progresses
eastward, there is potential for light rain/showers to continue
into the Interior. A new low originating from the tropics will
approach Alaska from the southwest Sunday morning. This low will
interact with the preexisting Bering Sea low, forming a triple
point below between the Bering Sea low and itself, fueling this
new systems development. This system expected to bring gusty
winds and more rounds of precipitation to the West Coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential...
Nothing impactful stands out for the forecast period in the way
of coastal concerns. Models continue to show the potential for
another low to set up in the Western Bering by Thursday. High
pressure east of this low will keep it in place through the
start of the weekend. Wind gusts are expected to be between 35
and 45 mph, however the majority of them will be offshore. Once
the low begins to shift east, models are showing it to weaken
and shift south; both of which would help keep coastal concerns
minimal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A low currently sitting in the Southeast Interior will continue to
track south towards the Alaska Peninsula today, bringing widespread
rain and high elevation snow to much of the Southern Interior and
Alaska Range. Rainfall accumulations over the past 12 hours have
ranged from a T-0.50", with most spots seeing 0.10-0.30". Additional
rainfall amounts through tonight will mainly range from 0.10-0.30",
with locally higher amounts between 0.50-1.00" around Delta Junction
and the Alaska Range. As these showers move out of the region,
west/northwest winds strengthen to around 10 to 15 mph, gusting up
to 30 mph before tapering off and weakening going into Tuesday
morning. By midweek, the pattern starts to change once again as
upper level ridging over the Aleutian Islands shifts farther east
and an arctic trough dips down over the North Slope. A brief period
of cooler temperatures will result, bringing highs down into the
upper 40s/low 50s across the Interior. As high pressure builds into
the Gulf of Alaska, temperatures warm back into the mid/upper 50s by
Thursday and min RHs decrease to around 40-50% in the driest spots.
Widespread showers with wetting rains are expected to return going
into the weekend, in addition to some gusty southerly winds through
the Alaska Range Passes.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Little to no impacts are expected. With another wave of
moderate precipitation expected Wednesday and Thursday across
the West Coast, this could result in slight river rises along
the Middle Yukon and lower end of the Koyukuk. Overall rainfall
amounts Wednesday through Friday have come into increasing
agreement with the latest guidance, showing around 0.5 to 1.5
inches across the Central/Western Interior, Brooks Range, and
Western Alaska. Locally higher totals around 1.5 to 2.5 inches
will be possible across the West Coast.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ849-850.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ812-858.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ813.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ857.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Laney
SYNOPSIS.......Twombly
SHORT TERM.....Twombly
LONG TERM......Donner
COASTAL........Twombly
FIRE WEATHER...Santiago
HYDROLOGY......Twombly