023
FXAK69 PAFG 022200
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
200 PM AKDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Warmer and drier conditions will ensue for the Interior and West
Coast with many locations seeing high temperatures in the low to
mid 70s through Wednesday. An unseasonably strong arctic low will
cause broad scale troughing by Friday, bringing below normal
temperatures, increased rain chances, and breezy northerly to
westerly winds.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Localized rain showers primarily near the White Mountains are
  expected through this evening.

- A pattern change will allow for warmer temperatures reaching the
  low to mid 70s over most of the Interior valleys beginning today
  and continuing into Thursday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Warmer temperatures with highs in the low to mid 70s through
  Thursday.

- Mostly clear and dry conditions persist for inland areas from
  today through Thursday until clouds build in later this week.

- Diurnal fog and low clouds for the western coast near Norton
  Sound and Kotzebue Sound may persist through Wednesday night.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Below average temperatures are expected to persist through today
  on the North Slope with values mostly between 30 and 40 degrees
  through Friday.

- More snow moves into the northern Brooks Range Wednesday, with
  some rain mixing in during the daytime hours. Accumulations
  around an inch with higher amounts at elevation in the Brooks
  Range.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...

A closed low currently north of the Fairbanks area by around 50
miles continues to move to the east into Canada, driven by a
building upper level ridge near Siberia. The building ridge will
bring broad northwesterly winds and high pressure at the surface
for most of the interior. Lighter winds, warmer temperatures,
particularly on Wednesday and Thursday, and drier conditions are
expected. Over the arctic, a strong upper level low will gradually
move closer to the north slope through early next week, with
troughs digging down over the north slope and interior beginning
on Wednesday. As this first trough digs south on Wednesday, a
broad area of primarily snow looks to set up to the east of
Utqiagvik, moving southeast into the northern Brooks Range. While
not much moisture is expected to be associated with this wave,
areas on the northern portion of the Brooks Range could see 1 to
1.5 inches of snow, with rain mixed in during the daytime period.
Higher elevations of the Brooks Range may see upwards of 4 inches
through Thursday morning. As the trough moves further south over
the Brooks Range, there is some evidence of minor divergence and
CAPE to the south of the Brooks Range. While chances are low, and
are currently not in the ongoing forecast, there is a non zero
chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday.

Along with the chances for snow, tightening pressure gradient is
expected to form between the advancing Arctic low and high
pressure moving back towards the west by Thursday over the Brooks
Range and Kotzebue Sound. As a result, gusts are likely to reach
up to 30 mph in these areas through Friday morning.

Going into the extended, broad troughing is expected to extend
down from the north slope through the weekend and next week,
bringing increased shower and cooler temperatures.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Somewhat quiet fire weather through the rest of this week and
possibly into next week as well. Upper level ridging near Siberia continues
to push eastward into the AOR, increasing surface pressure and
drying out much of the atmosphere. Isolated showers continue in
the forecast, primarily for the White Mountains and possibly Yukon
Flats through this evening, but precipitation is expected to
remain light. High temperatures are expected to maximize in the
70s everywhere except the North Slope on Wednesday, before being
localized to the western and central interior Thursday, with min
RH values between 20 and 30%. Wednesday will see a trough move
down from the Arctic, with the afternoon hours seeing some energy
advecting over the southern slopes of the eastern Brooks Range.
With CAPE around 200 J/kg and slight divergence, could see at
least isolated showers/virga and a very low probability of
thunder.

Winds are expected to be generally light, but are expected to
increase near the Seward Peninsula and Brooks Range Wednesday
night into Thursday. A pattern shift is expected towards the end
of the week and into the weekend as upper- level troughing builds
into the state, leading to the possibility of showers and
thunderstorms returning with cooler temperatures.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Sagavanirktok River: Some overflowing is occurring; however, breakup
along the Sag River has not begun yet. Today and Wednesday look to
be the warmest days with highs in the 30s to near 40 along the
coast and low 50s towards the northern Brooks Range. Temperatures
will then dip back down later in the week to below normal, around
the low 30s for a high near the coast and the mid to upper 30s for
the northern Brooks Range. Near the Sag River source on the north
Brooks Range, high temperatures could reach the mid 50s through
Wednesday, with snow levels reaching upwards of 4000 ft. Again,
temperatures look to cool going into the late week but continue to
be above freezing.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...

At the start of the extended forecast period Friday, the overall
pattern is transitioning from high pressure to the west and slight
ridging towards broad troughing as a large low over the Arctic
Ocean moves further south. Under the broad troughing pattern
conditions are expected to cool once more across the region with
highs falling back into the 60s across the Interior and below
freezing along the Arctic Coast. Afternoon showers with the
occasional very isolated thunderstorm will be possible each day.
Winds will become generally calm across most of the Interior with
periods of west/northwesterly winds expected, especially along the
Arctic and Chukchi Sea Coasts. The timing of these periods of
stronger winds will be largely dependent upon the timing and
strength of shortwave features moving through the large Arctic
low. These shortwaves will also influence the strength and
distribution of the heaviest showers as they make their way across
Northern Alaska. There is a great deal of uncertainty regarding
the timing and strength of these features, but high confidence in
them occuring early next week. The details of any storms that move
through the region then will therefore remain hazy for now.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...None.
&&

$$