526
FXAK69 PAFG 191539 CCA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
639 AM AKST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
There remains to be little to no change in the forecast since the
previous discussion. The broad trough over the Bering Sea with an
associated area of low pressure has continued to support a series of
low pressure systems moving into Western Alaska, with gusty winds,
widespread snow, and warming temperatures along the West Coast,
Western Interior, Central/Western Brooks Range, and NW Arctic Coast.
An overlap of gusty winds and snow could lead to significant
reductions in visibility at times, although this threat is
diminishing as warmer air is being advected in from the south and
not allow for as much in the way of blowing snow. However, these
conditions are still possible, and Winter Storm Warnings, as well as
Winter Weather Advisories have remained in place for the Yukon Delta
north through the Seward Peninsula and NW Arctic Coast for gusty
winds and snow/blowing snow through tonight, although these should
be allowed to expire as conditions already are showing signs of
improvement. There could still be a rain/snow mix will be possible
across southern portions of the West Coast with relatively warmer
temperatures still in place.

Across the Central/Eastern Interior, there has been some increasing
moisture and snow chances with the area of low pressure located over
Kotzebue Sound, although this is continuing to transition
northeast into the Chukchi, and therefore conditions are expected
to improve with lessening chances for snow by later today and
going into tomorrow. Best chances for more moderate snow in this
corridor will remain confined to higher elevations and in the
Brooks/Alaska Ranges. For the North Slope, there will be stronger
and and gusty winds building in along the Arctic Coast by later
today and through tomorrow.

Snow chances will remain in place across Northern Alaska through
Saturday, as a series of low pressure systems and fronts in the
Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska continue to support moisture transport
into our region, but then going into the latter part of the weekend,
colder and drier conditions will begin to set in as a strong area of
high pressure moves in from the West Coast and then builds in over
the entire state of Alaska.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Conditions remain mostly dry overall with isolated to scattered
  snow showers possible through the early part of the weekend.
  Highest snow chances will be over the Upper Tanana Valley, and
  Yukon Flats along the Alcan border.

- A warmer airmass will continue to build into the Western
  Interior this week, with highs reaching back into the single
  digits and teens above zero and lows in the single digits above
  and below zero.

- A colder and drier airmass will return heading into early next
  week as snow chances diminish.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- An active weather pattern continues through tonight across
  Western Alaska as a series of storms in the Bering Sea bring
  gusty winds, widespread snow, and warmer temperatures.

- Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories remain in
  effect along the West Coast and at St. Lawrence Island, where
  the heaviest snow and strongest winds are expected. Localized
  blizzard conditions are possible at times, although there is
  lessening confidence of this.

- Strongest wind gusts through tonight will peak around 30 to 50
  mph, strongest offshore and at St. Lawrence Island where gusts
  up to 60 mph are expected. A secondary system will be moving in
  tomorrow, and reinforcing chances for more snow.

- Temperatures will remain on the mild side, while predominantly
  snow is expected. A mix will be possible across lowest
  elevations, particularly the southern coastlines. They`ll begin
  to steadily drop off beginning this upcoming weekend and going
  into the early part of next week, as a cooler and drier pattern
  sets in.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- A series of systems moving north across Western Alaska will
  continue to support widespread snow moving into the
  Central/Western Brooks Range (including Atigun Pass) and NW
  Arctic Coast through tonight, and then chances of snow will
  gradually taper off through the rest of the week. There will be
  an increase in the chance of snow going into the early part of
  the weekend, but then becomes much drier thereafter.

- Gusty winds are expected today into tomorrow across higher
  elevations and coastal regions, leading to areas of blowing snow
  and significant reductions in visibility at times.

- Colder and drier conditions are expected to continue in the
  Eastern Brooks Range and NE Arctic Coast.

- Temperatures will remain on the warmer side through this
  weekend, begin to drop off this upcoming weekend into early next
  week as a much colder and drier pattern establishes itself over
  the region. There could be some locations within the Arctic
  Plains and Brooks Range getting down into the -30s, and possibly
  even -40s for a few locations, by the middle of next week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday night.
Models have struggled with the overall unsettled pattern that
continues over the western half of the state, as far as the
positioning of the associated areas for low pressure and their
track. Satellite/radar imagery confirms an area of low pressure
advancing towards the southern side of the Seward Peninsula. There
is also another area of low pressure that is exiting the Kotezbue
Sound and being ejected towards the northwest over the Chukchi
Sea as it continues to weaken and become absorbed into the ridge.
The overall longwave trough is expected to remain in place,
however it is weakening. The models have struggled with the
position of this low the most, which have kept it much further to
the southwest, and just south of St Lawrence Island, whereas the
current position verified by satellite/radar puts this feature
much closer in proximity to the Seward Peninsula, just southeast
of Nome. This illustrates just how much models have struggled
overall with resolving this system over the past couple of days.
Meanwhile, there is another major shortwave trough continuing to
enter into the Gulf of Alaska, which is helping to advect some
more mild temperatures and moisture into portions of the Western
Interior. These systems are continuing to weaken, although the
overall troughing pattern looks to keep things unsettled for the
western half of state, then expanding over the eastern half by
later in the week with a slight uptick in temperatures and snow
chances.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Thursday night through next Tuesday.
Ensembles have been persistent in showing a rather strong ridge
moving up from the Bering Sea into the Chukchi Sea, which is going
to allow for a more stable and much colder pattern beginning this
upcoming weekend and going into early next week. Chances of snow
will remain mostly confined over the Upper Tanana Valley, and Yukon
Flats along the Alcan Border, as well as portions of the eastern
Interior with a southerly influx of moisture being transported up
from a major shortwave trough transitioning through the Gulf of
Alaksa, otherwise, most of the region is expected to remain mostly
dry with colder temperatures setting in over the Mainland under a
very strong longwave ridge that will continue to build in over the
state going into the early part of next week. Along with this, we
could begin seeing some locations falling into the -30s (and
possibly even a few localized areas getting into the -40s) across
the North Slope by the mid part of next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ814>819-824>826.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ820>823-827.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801>804-808-809-855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805>807-816-817-850-853-854-856.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805-852.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807-810-816-817-851-854-
     856>858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857-858.
&&

$$

Stewey