545
FXAK69 PAFG 261500
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
700 AM AKDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

An active summer pattern brings continued fire weather concerns to
Interior Alaska, warm temperatures and even thunderstorms to the
North Slope Thursday and Friday, and a highly unusual Bering Sea
low south of the Bering Strait. Today and Thursday will be the
warmest days in the Interior, with slight cooling on Friday. Dry
thunderstorms are likely today from Eagle to Tok and east to the
Alcan Border. A banner day for thunderstorms is expected Thursday
with scattered thunderstorms from the Western Brooks Range to
Fairbanks to the Alcan Border.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Analysis and Model Discussion...

Models initialized well when compared to observations at the
surface and aloft. We will use a blend of models for this forecast
package. Notable updates we`ll make are to increase southerly gap
winds south of Healy to 15 knots sustained through Thursday
evening. We will knock high temperatures down a couple of degrees
across the central and eastern Interior today after temperatures
came up a couple degrees short of the forecasted high yesterday
and smoke continues to linger. We will update the smoke forecast
and generally follow the HRRR-smoke model for guidance, with a few
changes. We will update the thunderstorm forecast for Friday to
include scattered thunderstorms across a large area of the North
Slope.

Central and Eastern Interior...Hot and dry conditions with
afternoon and evening thunderstorms continue with highs
reaching the low to mid 80s. Wednesday will be the hottest day of
the week with highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Thursday will be
slightly cooler, but expect an increase in thunderstorm activity
especially south and west of the Yukon Flats.

West Coast and Western Interior...Warm and mostly dry conditions
persist. Expect southeast winds 15 to 25 mph from Nome south late
today as a strong low pressure system resides in the Bering Sea.
The front will bring little in the way of precipitation with only
light rain expected along the Yukon Delta. Thursday looks to be a
very big thunderstorm day from east of Kotzebue to Huslia and
southeast. The aforementioned low pressure system in the Bering
Sea will bring elevated surf 1 to 2 feet above the normal high
tide line along the Yukon Delta coast as well as south facing
shorelines south of the Bering Strait including Nome. Water will
be elevated Wed-Fri with multiple water level peaks as storm surge
values remain fairly constant and tides go in and out.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Warm temperatures will extend north
all the way to the Arctic Coast on Wednesday and Thursday as the
ridge moves north over the Arctic Coast. Isolated thunderstorms
are expected even up to the Arctic Coast on Wednesday.
Thunderstorm activity will increase in the Brooks Range and on the
Western North Slope on Thursday. Friday will bring scattered
thunderstorms west of Umiat. East winds 15 to 20 mph are expected
along the coast Thursday night and Friday morning.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Widely scattered dry thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
from Eagle to Tok and east to the Alcan Border as a shortwave
moves off the upper level high center from the east. Today will be
the hottest and driest day of the week with highs expected to
reach the mid to upper 80s across most of the Interior. Min RHs
will be 20-25% east of Tanana and slightly higher to the west. Outside
of the widely scattered dry thunderstorms in the eastern Interior,
isoalted thunderstorms are expected across the rest of the
Interior, Brooks Range, and eastern Arctic Coast. Widely scattered
thunderstorms are expected from Huslia to Tanana to Poorman to
Galena.

On Thursday, Red Flag Warnings for both hot/dry/windy conditions
and for lightning are in effect as the ridge shifts north to the
Arctic Coast as a strong low in the Bering Sea pushes further
north. This will tighten the gradient and cause east winds 10 to
20 mph across the northern Interior. It will still be plenty hot
and dry, so have gone ahead with a Red Flag Warning for
hot/dry/windy conditions across the northern Interior. Thursday
may also be the largest lightning day of the year so far as
scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along a boundary
between the Bering low and the Interior ridge extending from the
Western Brooks Range to Fairbanks to the Alcan Border. Red Flag
Warnings for lightning are in effect for the central and eastern
Interior. Isolated thunderstorms are expected even up to the
Arctic Coast.

On Friday, the same shortwave will impact the central Brooks
Range, bringing widely scattered thunderstorms from Atqasuk to
Anaktuvuk Pass to Livengood and east to Eagle. Scattered
thunderstorms are even expected on the western North Slope.
Temperatures will be 2 to 5 degrees cooler than Thursday across
the area and minimum RH 5-10% higher.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Glacial fed rivers including the Tanana are beginning to rise as
warming temperatures lead to increased high elevation snowmelt.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Dense Smoke Advisory for AKZ839-840-844.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
&&

$$

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