195
FXAK69 PAFG 061241
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
441 AM AKDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad troughing continues across much of the state. Attention
turns toward the Arctic low that continues to spin over the North
Pole, swinging a series of shortwaves across the state. A colder
airmass will begin to shift south on Sunday as part of a stronger
shortwave moving south from the Arctic Low. This will set up
potential for moderate snowfall across the Brooks Range on Sunday
and Monday, along with isolated chances for thunderstorms across
the Interior. A winter Storm Watch is currently in effect for the
Brooks Range. This system will also bring in seasonably colder
temperatures for much of the state which is expected to linger
through the early parts of next week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Gradually cooling temperatures are expected through the weekend
  into early next week as increasingly scattered showers and
  isolated thunderstorm chances build in across the Interior.
  Thunderstorm chances will be confined to the Upper-Tanana today,
  spreading to other portions of the Interior on Sunday.

- Gusty west/southwest wind speeds will increase across the
  Northern Interior on Sunday. The strongest winds are expected at
  higher elevations with gusts up to 35 mph.

- Dependent on clearing skies, low temperatures Monday night
  through Wednesday night will bottom out in the 30s and 40s for
  most, with coldest valleys dropping to around freezing.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Dry conditions will continue across Western Alaska through the
  weekend, with highs cooler on the coast in the 30s/40s/50s and
  warmer inland in the 50s/60s/70s.

- Isolated showers will continue across some portions of the
  central West Coast today as northwest flow continues to
  bring weak shortwaves down from the Arctic.

- Isolated showers will then continue through the weekend as
  temperatures see a gradual cooling trend. Lows will be in the
  20s/30s/40s.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Below normal temperatures are expected to continue into early
  next week north of the Brooks Range with highs/lows in the
  20s/30s while warmer air remains situated to the south of the
  Brooks Range where highs in the 40s/50s/60s and lows in the
  30s/40s continue.

- Isolated to scattered showers expected to continue across the
  North Slope, expanding to the Brooks Range over the weekend
  into next week. Light snow accumulations are expected across the
  Arctic Coast/Plains, with heavier amounts in the Brooks Range.

- A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the Central Brooks
  Range for Sunday and Monday to capture heavier snowfall amounts
  along the Dalton Highway, with snowfall amounts up to around
  6-12 inches and wind gusts around 30 mph at Atigun Pass.

- Temperatures will hold steady or see a cooling trend this
  weekend into early next week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Not much has changed to the overall pattern as broad troughing
continues across northern Alaska. A 500 decameter, Arctic low
continues to spin near the North Pole, providing westerly flow
across the state. A weak shortwave will move south from the
Chukchi throughout the day, today, providing very isolated chances
for showers across the West Coast. Some of the energy will get
caught in the westerly flow, providing snow showers across the
Brooks Range today. Some of this energy will stretch from the YK-
Delta to the Yukon Flats. This sets up a frontal boundary that
will provide chances for thunderstorms across the Interior on
Sunday.

Troughing will slowly amplify throughout the weekend as some of
the energy from the Arctic low shifts further south. Associated
with this system is a cold, Arctic airmass that will move across
the state along with widespread chances for showers. Looking over
the Brooks Range, the southwesterly flow will slowly set up as the
trough continues to dig further south across the Western Interior.
This will provide a chance for moderate snowfall amounts through
the central Brooks Range with Sunday and Monday totals between 6
and 12 inches expected. A Winter Storm watch remains in effect for
these areas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Conditions are expected to shift beginning today as upper-level
troughing is expected to build into the state from the north,
leading to the isolated showers and thunderstorms returning to
northern Alaska. The greatest chance for thunderstorms are on Sunday
for the Interior and SW Interior with the possibility of gusty winds
accompanying these thunderstorms. High temperatures will begin to
steadily decrease and minimum relative humidities will steadily rise
over the next couple of days. This is expected to persist into mid-
week as upper-level ridging begins to move into the state once again.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Sagavanirktok River
Temperatures continue as below normal, around the low 30s for a
high near the coast and the mid to upper 30s for the northern
Brooks Range. Going into the weekend and into next week, much
below normal to possibly record breaking temperatures with lows
possibly below 20 degrees and high temperatures not exceeding
freezing, except near the Brooks Range where temperatures may
reach the upper 30s. APRFC reports some open water for the whole
river channel.

Colville River
Fresh Eyes on Ice report from Thursday shows between Umiat at
Ocean Point that the low is up slightly and is more turbid with
fewer but bigger jams present with a lot of stranded ice. APRFC
reports some open to mostly open water with mostly ice still in
place by Colville Village.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
The main story on Tuesday is an upper level low which is providing
northwesterly flow to most spots from the Central Interior north and
west while the Eastern Interior remains in southwesterly flow for
much of the week. Rain will be ending in the Central Interior by
Tuesday afternoon with widespread rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms persisting in the Alaska Range, Upper Tanana Valley
and Fortymile. Wednesday should be a drier and warmer day for most
areas but scattered showers and isolated storms remain possible in
the Eastern Interior. Looking at the end of the week, there is some
uncertainty with the exact details but the pattern is there. Ridging
appears to be increasing across Northern Alaska from the southeast,
especially from Friday into Saturday bringing the potential for much
warmer weather and thunderstorms. The warmer weather would include
the Brooks Range and North Slope as well.

By Saturday, a nearly 590 decameter ridge will be fully developed,
but the question is where it sets up. Some guidance has it over the
West Coast of the CONUS while others have it south of, or directly
over, Haida Gwaii. To the west of the ridge is an upper low near the
Alaska Peninsula which would further promote southerly flow in
Northern Alaska. Needless to say, significantly warmer weather is
possible. One thing the upper level low can do is provide fronts to
Northern Alaska which would come in the form of showers and storms.
Nonetheless, expect warmer, more summer-like weather heading into
the end of next week and especially the weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ809.
PK...None.
&&

$$

Twombly
Lewis - Fire Wx
Bianco - Extended