453
FXAK69 PAFG 152305
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
305 PM AKDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather continues across Northern Alaska. Rapid snowmelt is
causing rivers along the North Slope to rise. High thunderstorm
potential is expected in the Western Interior Monday and Tuesday
with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms expected for much
of the rest of the Interior Sunday through Wednesday afternoons.


&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Warm weather continues with highs in the mid 80s remaining
  through most of the week.
- See heat advisory for additional details.

- Isolated thunderstorms expected Sunday afternoon with greater
  potential west of Fairbanks. Thunderstorm potential increases
  for Monday and Tuesday in the Tanana Valley and Fortymile
  Country.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Showers and widely scattered thunderstorms return to the
  Western Interior Sunday afternoon. Showers with scattered
  thunderstorms expected Monday and Tuesday.
- The greatest thunderstorm potential is in the Western Interior
   south of Huslia Monday and Tuesday afternoon.

- Temperatures in the 70s to low 80s for the Western Interior and
  the 60s for the coast expected to persist through most of the
  week.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s on the Arctic Plain and
  in the 60s along the coast persist through most of the week.

- Rapid snowmelt is causing rapid rises in rivers.

- Isolated afternoon thunderstorms along the southern slopes of
  the Western Brooks Range possible Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A 572 dam upper level high sits over the Eastern Brooks Range, a
539 dam upper level low remains in the Bering Sea southwest of St.
Lawrence Island, and a 544 dam upper level low remains in the
Eastern Gulf of Alaska. The high slowly moves north allowing
shortwaves and areas of enhanced vorticity to rotate around the 2
lows into the Southern and Western Interiors. This will greatly
enhance convection in the Western Interior where the 3 upper level
features are able to interact. Because of this showers and scattered
to numerous thunderstorms are expected in the Western Interior
south of Huslia Monday and Tuesday afternoon. The high begins to
move further south Wednesday which will limit some of the
convective development slightly, although showers and widely
scattered storms are still expected throughout much of the
Interior. High temperatures and dry conditions with light winds
continues so long as the high remains over Northern Alaska.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and very dry conditions continue in the Interior. Winds
remain generally light through the week, but reach around 15 mph
Monday and Tuesday afternoons in the Yukon Flats and nearby
elevated terrain. This has necessitated a red flag warning for
that region on Monday and Tuesday. Thunderstorm activity
increases in the Southern Interior and Western Interior Sunday
with widely scattered thunderstorms in the Western Interior and
further increases Monday and Tuesday with scattered thunderstorms
over the Western Interior and widely scattered thunderstorms
expected in the Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country. With the
warm and dry conditions at the surface fuels will continue to dry
out with possible critical fire weather concerns Tuesday in the
Southwestern Interior due to increased thunderstorm activity and
drying fuels. A fire weather watch has been issued for this
concern.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rivers are continuing to breakup across the North Slope. River
levels are continuing to rise and will likely crest early to
middle of this week. On the Sag, there has been an emergency
closure o f the Dalton Highway between MP 305 and MP 356 due to a
major washout at MP 315 caused by a failed culvert as well as
water over topping the road at several other spots. On the
Colville, flooding is occurring at Umiat with ice jams present
further downstream. Flooding could occur downstream over the next
couple of days as these ice jams release.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Warm weather will continue across much of Northern Alaska as an
upper-level ridge over the northeastern mainland gradually shifts
to the southeast during the extended time frame. Thunderstorms
will also be possible across wide swaths of the Interior and some
parts of the West Coast during this time frame. A vertically-
stacked low moving into the Bering Sea late this week and may lead
to dropping temperatures across parts of Western Alaska, but
there is low confidence on the track, which. As the ridge shifts
to the southeast, the extent of the warmest (especially >80F)
temperatures may also retreat eastward.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Fire Weather Watch for AKZ929-930-952.
     Flood Watch for AKZ804>806-808>810.
     Red Flag Warning for AKZ931>934.
     Heat Advisory for AKZ833>835-838>846.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
&&

$$

Stokes

EXTENDED...DS