380
FXAK69 PAFG 012343
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
243 PM AKST Sun Mar 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Unusually cold temperatures look to continue across much of the
area for most of the week ahead. It does appear that temperatures
will be moderating a bit in the coming days, but will still be on
the order to 20 to 25 degrees below normal. Meanwhile mainly dry
and quiet conditions are expected as blizzard conditions along the
Eastern Arctic Coast abate by Monday morning.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- One more very cold night is expected tonight as the temperature
  again approaches the -40 mark in a few spots under clear skies
  and light winds.

- As the amount of daylight increases and the sun climbs higher in
  the sky, we will continue to see large temperature swings
  between daily highs and lows with daytime temps as much as 30
  degrees warmer than the early morning low temperatures.

- By midweek, highs will rise into the single digits below zero
  with overnight lows in the -20s and -30s. This is still below
  normal, but an improvement over this weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Temps remain cold across the West Coast with lows in the
  -20s and -30s along the coast and the -30s and -40s across the
   Western Interior.

- Northerly winds increase through the Bering Strait Sunday night
  into Monday. Due to plenty of fresh snow on the ground, blowing
  snow conditions and low visibilities are possible.

- Milder temperatures are expected for the Western Interior
  beginning Tuesday, while parts of the West Coast near the Seward
  Peninsula and Kotzebue may see a slight drop in overnight
  temperatures.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Blowing snow and blizzard conditions should persist across the
  Eastern Arctic Coast tonight, with new snowfall amounts
  totaling up to 2 inches and visibilities as low as 1/4 miles or
  less at times.

- Conditions should be improving through Monday morning for
  Kaktovik and Point Thomson. However, winds may still gust as
  high as 50 to 55 mph at times this evening.

- Temperatures are expected to drop significantly in the days
  ahead with mainly dry conditions expected and lighter winds.
  Clearing skies by Tuesday night could result in overnight lows
  as cold as the -30s and -40`s by midweek.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Overall, our weather pattern has not changed much over the past 24
hours. Northern Alaska remains trapped between a very strong
Siberian ridge to our west and an equally strong upper trough to
our east over the Canadian Archipelago. The resulting northerly
flow pattern has helped keep temperatures well below seasonal
norms, especially during the overnight and early morning hours.
It does appear however that temps will be on their way to
moderating a few degrees both during the daytime as well as
overnight as we move ahead the next few days. The primary reason
for this is the 1040 surface high currently positioned over the
Upper Tanana Valley is projected to shift east and weaken over
the next few days. While 850 mb temps have consistently hovered
near -30 C the past couple of days, models agree that they will
be warming by as much as 10 C through midweek, further supporting
the idea of moderating temps in the week ahead. But even at that,
readings should still run some 20 to 30 degrees below seasonal
norms through midweek as the upper trough builds southwest over
interior Alaska.

As for sensible weather, gusty winds and blowing snow will
continue into this evening across the Eastern Arctic Coast where
Blizzard conditions will likely continue into tonight. As of this
writing, locations around Deadhorse, Nuiqsut and even Point
Thomson have rapidly improved and the same should occur tonight
through Monday morning for Kaktovik. Meanwhile along the west
coast here have been some concerns that increasing northerly flow
through the Bering Strait may create issues with blowing snow
along the west coast of the Seward Peninsula tonight through
Monday. While that is still possible, wind gusts should level off
around 30 to 35 mph. But with plenty of blowable snow available
from recent storms, this area will continue to be watched for
potential weather headlines over the next 24 hours or so.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
By midweek, an upper low will take shape over southwestern Alaska
while North Pacific upper ridging gets suppressed southwards a
bit. This will keep the active storm track well to our south with
a series of surface lows racing into the northern Gulf of Alaska
with chilly but dry conditions continuing over Northern Alaska.
There is some uncertainty as to what the upper low will do as we
approach the weekend, but models are close enough in agreement to
at least consider that as a surface low nears Prince William
sound by Friday morning, some moisture and energy may break off
and get transported towards the Central and Eastern Interior. Any
impacts appear to be minimal at this time, but it would mean some
slightly warmer temps and maybe even some light snow showers
scattered about the east next weekend. Meanwhile, with a stout
surface high over eastern Siberia, northerly surface winds along
the west coast will be ramping up while the western Interior
continues to experience much colder than normal temps.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-817-854-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
     Gale Warning for PKZ814.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850-851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
     Gale Warning for PKZ860.
&&

$$

Laney