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FXAK69 PAFG 280047
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
347 PM AKST Tue Jan 27 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Another fairly active day across Coastal and
Mountainous regions of Alaska while much of the interior remains
quiet. An extended period of Blizzard conditions has begun across
the Arctic Coast and will persist for the next several days due to
strong northeast winds and blowing snow. The prolonged high wind
event continues for parts of the West Coast and Bering for the
next 24 hours before the area of strongest winds shifts north of
the Bering Strait. Heavy snow has been going largely according to
forecast within the Eastern Alaska Range and Upper Tanana Valley.
A narrow band of heavy snow stretching from around Eagle down to
Isabel Pass may lead to locally higher snowfall amounts this
evening, especially within the mountains. A warming trend has
begun from southeast to northwest across Northern Alaska as
increasing clouds and southerly flow bring surface temperatures
back towards normal in the single digits above and below zero.
Most cold weather, wind, and snow products expire over the next
12-18 hours while watches and warning continue along the Arctic
and NW Coast. Relatively benign conditions set up over the
majority of Northern Alaska later this week and into the weekend
with near normal temperatures and dry conditions.


&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Winter weather headlines in effect for the eastern Alaska range
  passes and Upper Tanana Valley through tonight as snow
  increases from the southeast. Highest accumulations within
  Alaska range passes.

- Temperatures moderate through the end of the week with highs in
  the single digits above zero. The increasing sun angle brings a
  return to daily diurnal temperature curves.

- Winds ramp up across higher elevations, peaking today and
  Wednesday as a Tanana Valley Jet sets up near Delta Junction and
  southerly gap winds increase through Alaska Range Passes.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A prolonged high wind event ongoing across Western Alaska and
  the Bering with wind gusts of 45-70 mph where warnings are in
  effect. Near Blizzard conditions will continue at times near the
  Bering Strait and for the NW Coast.

- Temperatures begin to moderate Wednesday afternoon back toward
  zero and the single digits as the main core of cold air moves
  west over the Bering Sea.

- Light snow south of the Seward Peninsula Wednesday and Thursday
  with accumulations less than 1 inch.


North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Another round of Winter Storm Watches for blizzard conditions
  have been issued from Utqiagvik to Kaktovik along the Arctic
  Coast. Expect blizzard or near blizzard conditions from late
  this evening through Thursday morning.

- A prolonged high wind event continues for the NW Arctic Coast
  with gusts up to 60-70 mph through Thursday. Blizzard conditions
  at times from Kivalina to Point Hope.

- Cold Weather Advisories and Extreme Cold Warnings include all of
  the Brooks Range and North Slope through Tuesday for wind
  chills as cold as -55 to -75F.

- Temperatures begin to moderate Wednesday with most areas seeing
  temperatures between 0 and -20 F through the weekend.


&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION... A complex meteorological set
up remains in place over Alaska bringing a wide range of weather
conditions to different parts of the state. A 495dm upper low has
been influencing the state for the past several days, bringing a
much colder arctic airmass to the region. This upper low is
finally shifting towards the West Coast and will make its way
westward into the Bering by tomorrow. Southerly flow setting up
on the back side of the low are in addition to increasing moisture
advection from the Gulf are working to kick out the arctic airmass
in place. This sets the stage for lows in the Gulf to bring energy
and moisture northward to portions of the Eastern Interior,
increasing wind and snow chances near the Alaska Range today and
tomorrow.

Wind: At the surface, an anomalously strong 1055mb+ Arctic high
remains in the high arctic while lower pressure in the Bering and
Pacific result in a tight northerly pressure gradient across the
state. This set up has led to blizzard conditions from high winds
and blowing snow across portions of the West Coast, NW Coast, and
Arctic Coast. As lower pressure moves into the Bering, the high
wind and blizzard threat shifts northward, north of the Seward
Peninsula by tomorrow. However, expect this same pattern to remain
in place across far Northern Alaska through the end of the week
where Blizzard Warnings remain in effect.

Southerly flow has begun within the Alaska range passes and in
portions of the Tanana Valley as a low in the Gulf swings a front
from the southeast into the area. A strong southerly gradient
across the Alaska Range and 700mb jet of 40-55kts will lead gusty
winds through the Eastern Alaska Range Passes and Delta Junction
over the next 24 hours. Towards Thursday and the end of the week,
the gradient and mid level jet become more easterly and less
favorable for strong winds in this region, therefore expect much
light flow for the end of the period.

Snow: Focusing on the far Eastern Interior toward the Yukon
border, Upper Tanana Valley and Eastern Alaska range for the snow
portion of the discussion. Satellite imagery shows a SW to NE
oriented front extending from the Gulf northeast into the Yukon
with a wave along it moving into Prince William Sound. A unique
meteorological set up has lead to a slow moving band of heavy snow
to move eastward across the state today. Aloft, a coupled jet has
placed the Upper Tanana Valley and SE interior in an area of
enhanced upper level divergence and lift. A quasi stationary
boundary on the SE side of the upper polar low has been the focus
for snow shower development in this region over the past 24 hours
as Gulf moisture advects northwest into the region over the
boundary. At the same time, the frontal boundary and associated
wave pushing in from the Gulf is working to increase lift locally
and enhance snow development activity. RAOB soundings from
Whitehorse today show steep mid and upper level lapse rates above
a strong low level inversion. The incoming front and southerly
flow have saturated the area above the inversion and dendritic
growth zone, creating an environment conducive for heavy snow.
With enhanced lift in the same region, a narrow band of heavy snow
has formed from the Central Yukon to near Eagle to Delta Junction
to Isabel Pass. This band has resulted in 1/4 mile or less
visibility at times and high snowfall rates. This can also be seen
on satellite based snowfall products such as AK-SFR imaging,
confirming the presence of the band. Expect periods of heavy snow
through the Upper Tanana Valley and Eastern Alaska range to
continue over the next several hours as the band slowly works
north and west. While this band will make its way towards
Fairbanks, increasing southerly winds through the Alaska range may
enhance downsloping the north. This band should weaken some as it
interacts with mid level dry air closer to Fairbanks, resulting
in only light snow chances further around Fairbanks and in areas
that are more prone to downsloping off the Alaska Range.

Temperatures: Increasing clouds from the southeast and southerly
flow will quickly eradicate the arctic airmass over the state. A
significant warming trend occurs aloft the next 24 hours with
850mb temps rising from the -20s to +0s in a short amount of time.
With upper ridging building in from NW Canada and low level
easterly flow setting up through the end of the week, the mild
airmass is expected to remain in place through the weekend with
highs near to above normal in the single digits...maybe even low
teens.



&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Benign conditions persist over the
Interior and much of the West Coast into the extended period,
however there are signs on the horizon of a more active pattern
setting up around the day 7 period and beyond. The polar low
responsible for the arctic air pushes off into Russia while weak
upper ridging extends from Northwest Canada into the Interior. The
trajectory and orientation of the ridging overhead should keep
the numerous waves and lows in the Gulf in southern and southwest
Alaska. Easterly/southeasterly flow persists at the surface into
the weekend with well above normal 850mb and surface temperature
anomalies. Overall relatively mild and dry conditions persist for
the interior

The most active region in the extended will be the Arctic and NW
Coast which will be under the influence of a polar airmass and the
strong 1050mb+ arctic high. The northeasterly pressure gradient
remains tight next week with an intense low level jet setting up
along the coast Sunday through the middle of next week. Periods of
high winds and near Blizzard conditions persist in this area with
this set up with Point Hope and surrounding areas likely dealing
with the worst conditions through the period. Despite a brief warm
up this weekend, expect colder air with double digits below zero
temps for next week. Periods of snow and snow showers remain in
the forecast for the Brooks Range as waves of energy drop down
from the high arctic this weekend and next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None



&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ849.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ850.
     Extreme Cold Warning for AKZ813.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ815.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ820-821-827.
     Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ803>805-808.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ803>805.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ832.
     Extreme Cold Warning for AKZ806-807.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-803.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-852-853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-809.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-807.
     Gale Warning for PKZ810-814-816-817-851-854-856-857.
     Storm Warning for PKZ811.
     Gale Warning for PKZ812-858-861.
     Gale Warning for PKZ813.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815-860.
     Gale Warning for PKZ859.
&&

$$

CM