497
FXAK69 PAFG 301134
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
234 AM AKST Tue Dec 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold conditions briefly warm Tuesday and Wednesday before cooling
again Thursday through the weekend. Warmer temperatures are more
consistent across the West Coast, North Slope, and Southeastern
Interior where light snowfall disrupted previous cold. Warming in
the Central and Western Interior will largely be dependent on the
exact position of sporadic cloud cover with areas blanketed by
clouds warming into the teens and 20s below 0 and areas under
clear skies remaining in the -30 to -50 range. Light snowfall and
gusty northerly winds expected along the West Coast Tuesday and
Wednesday, strongest near the Bering Strait and weakening rapidly
further east.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Slight warming has disrupted the ice fog over the Fairbanks
  area. Ice fog could easily return as temperatures cool once more
  Wednesday through the end of the week.

- A front from the Gulf of Alaska is bringing clouds and light
  snow to the Eastern Interior.
 - This front has stalled just southeast of Fairbanks, but its
    proximity has warmed temperatures slightly and promoted some
    very light winds.
 - Snowfall amounts for the Eastern Interior/Upper Tanana Valley
    remain light, around 1 to 3 inches through Thursday afternoon.

- Otherwise, the remainder of the Interior Valleys north and west
  of Fairbanks remain in the -30s to near -50. Any cloud cover
  will likely hold to the Eastern Interior by the end of the week
  keeping everywhere in the Central Interior very cold.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- A low reaches the Bering Strait Tuesday morning bringing light
  snow and gusty northerly winds along the West Coast.
 - 2 to 4 inches of snow expected from St. Lawrence Island to the
    Western Brooks Range. 1 to 2 inches for the Eastern Norton
    Sound and Yukon Delta.
 - Northerly winds gusting up to 60 mph possible through the
    Bering Strait. Gusts up to 40 mph possible from Point Hope to
    St. Lawrence Island. Winds diminish further east.

- Colder air arrives by Thursday afternoon bringing highs back
  below zero across the West Coast.

- Most of the Western Interior remains dry and cold with
  temperatures in the -20s to -40s through the end of the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Warmer temperatures expected through Wednesday with highs in the
  teens and single digits above 0 West of Deadhorse and highs in
  the teens and single digits below 0 east of Deadhorse.

- Some light snow and flurries persist through Tuesday along the
  North Slope west of Deadhorse. Little to no snow accumulations
  expected.

- A gradual cooling trend then persists Thursday through the end
  of the week bringing temperatures back into the -20s and -30s.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
For Tuesday through Thursday night.
At the start of the forecast period early Tuesday, broad troughing
exists around a 511 decameter low in the Gulf of Alaska and a weak
534 decameter ridge extends through the Western Interior and North
Slope. A shortwave rotating around a 490 decameter low in the high
Arctic pushes through the pattern Tuesday through Wednesday and
separates the ridge from its base in the Bering Sea. This brings a
weak low across the Seward Peninsula Tuesday afternoon bringing
some light snow and gusty winds to the West Coast, mostly around
the Bering Strait. The low in the Gulf of Alaska is extending a
front across the Southeastern Interior bringing cloud cover and
very light snow to areas southeast of Fairbanks. This has
significantly warmed temperatures under the clouds into the teens
and 20s below 0. These clouds are not expected to make it into the
Fairbanks area, but their close proximity has warmed temperatures
slightly into the 20s and 30s below 0. This slight warming from
the front`s proximity has helped to weaken the strong temperature
inversion over the city temporarily improving conditions and
helping to disperse the ice fog.

The weak surface low along the West Coast and the front in the
Southeastern Interior both weaken considerably through Wednesday
as very cold Arctic air pushes into the region once more. A deep
troughing pattern takes hold even as surface pressure increases
promising a quick return to cold conditions across the state late
Wednesday into Thursday. These colder conditions are likely to
last through the weekend, but may persist even longer.

Confidence is high in this general pattern, but only low to
moderate for many of the smaller, but still important details.
Cloud cover for many Interior valleys would significantly warm
temperatures, but the exact position of clouds as these features
attempt to degrade the settled Arctic air over many Interior
valleys remains uncertain. Once the troughing pattern reasserts
itself over the entire state, some sparse cloud cover is expected
which could lead to erratic temperatures as clouds briefly blanket
certain valleys, yet leave others completely exposed. To put it
briefly, cold weather will continue to dominate the state,
especially in the latter half of the week, but there may be brief
periods of warmer conditions that will be difficult to predict.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
For Friday through next Tuesday.
At the start of the extended forecast period, Friday, broad
troughing has reasserted itself over the state pulling very cold
Arctic air into Northern Alaska. Temperatures well below 0 are
expected for the entire region with many Interior valleys seeing
temperatures in the -30s to possibly even as cold as the -50s.
Some sparse cloud cover may provide some brief warming across
small portions of the Interior, but the timing and placement of
this cloud cover is very unpredictable.

There is a chance for some more notable warming late in the period
next Tuesday as another system moves through the pattern
potentially bringing some warmer and wetter air over the region.
Should this occur some light snow is expected along with rising
temperatures, but confidence is still far too low at this time to
give any particular qualitative or quantitative details.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ811.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-805-850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-854-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-811-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-851.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817-851-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
&&

$$

Stokes