311
FXAK69 PAFG 270049
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
349 PM AKST Mon Jan 26 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Active weather continues for portions of Northern
Alaska as numerous weather systems are bringing snow, wind,
extreme cold, or a mix of the three to the region. Cold Weather
products are in effect for the Brooks Range and North Slope as
wind chills in the -50 to -75 range continue over the next several
days. Blizzard conditions are ongoing along the Arctic coast
through this evening before conditions briefly subside. Blowing
snow and windy conditions redevelop again Tuesday and Wednesday.
Along the west coast, a prolonged high wind event is underway
with northerly to northeasterly wind gusts of 60-75 mph right
along the Coast and through the Bering Sea. Quiet and cold
conditions continue in the Interior as the polar low keeps an
arctic airmass in place. Further southeast within the Alaska Range
Passes and Upper Tanana Valley, expect accumulating snow to
increase in coverage over the next 24-30 hours as pacific moisture
is drawn up from the southeast. The overall weather pattern
becomes more benign towards the end of the week and into the
weekend as the arctic airmass in place moves well to the west
allowing temperatures to warm back to normal with little chances
for precipitation.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Winter weather headlines posted for the eastern Alaska range
  passes and Upper Tanana Valley Monday and Tuesday as snow
  increases from the southeast. Highest accumulations within
  Alaska range passes.

- Temperatures trend colder through Wednesday with coldest valley
  locations reaching down to -30F to -45F

- Winds ramp up across higher elevations, peaking on Tuesday and
  Wednesday as a Tanana Valley Jet sets up near Delta Junction and
  southerly gap winds increase through Alaska Range Passes.

- Warmer temperatures build in mid to late week, returning to more
  seasonal levels

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A prolonged high wind event ongoing across Western Alaska, with
  wind gusts of 45-70 mph becoming widespread along the West
  Coast and in the Bering Strait where High Wind Warnings are in
  effect.

- Temperatures plummeting back below zero through Thursday with
  lows -10F to -30F and even colder wind chills.


North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Near Blizzard wind down this evening along the northeast Arctic
  Coast; however northeasterly winds increase to 25-40 mph with
  higher gusts Tuesday and Wednesday resulting in blowing snow and
  reduced visibility at times.

- A prolonged high wind event continues for the NW Arctic Coast
  with gusts up to 60-70 mph through Thursday. Near Blizzard
  conditions at times from Kivalina to Cape Lisburne.

- Widespread double digit below zero temperatures expected to
  fill in regionwide through midweek. Coldest locations are
  expected to drop to around -30F to -50F.

- Cold Weather Advisories and Extreme Cold Warnings include all of
  the Brooks Range and North Slope through Wednesday for wind
  chills as cold as -55 to -75F.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...A complex synoptic set up is
responsible for the extreme weather across much of Northern Alaska
this week. A sub 500mb upper polar low traverses the state from
Mackenzie Bay to the Bering Sea over the next several days keeping
the very deep Arctic airmass in place before shifting it westward
by the end of the week. At the surface, an intense 1060mb+ high
exists over the Arctic while a weak area of low pressure
responsible for blizzard conditions today along the arctic coast
dissipates as it hits the Brooks Range tonight. Lower pressure
moving northward into the Gulf of Alaska tightens the northerly
pressure gradient over the state, prolonging the high wind event
over the west coast and arctic while increasing moisture and
clouds over the Alaska Range and Tanana Valley.

Temperatures: A deep arctic airmass currently sits over the state
with 850mb temperatures as low as -35C to almost -40C along the
North Slope. The coldest day of the week will be Tuesday as the
Polar low becomes directly overhead. With the exception of the far
eastern and SE Interior, mainly clear skies over much of Northern
Alaska should allow for temperatures to plummet tonight into the -30F
to -50F range. Lower confidence exists in Fairbanks temperature
forecast for tonight and for areas further southeast where thicker
cloud cover is. Still thinking temperatures will plummet around
Fairbanks, but cloud cover may help moderate temperatures somewhat
over the next 24-36 hours. As the Polar low shifts to the Bering
on Wednesday, southerly flow on the backside of this helps kick
out the arctic airmass with 850mb temps rising to +3C to -10C by
Wednesday night. Low lying interior valleys and the West Coast
likely hold onto the more extreme cold through Thursday; however
the eastern half of the state significantly warms up to near or
above zero by the end of the week, with near to above normal
temperatures persisting into the extended.

Winds: As mentioned above, an anomalously strong 1060mb+ Arctic
high has created an exceptional northerly pressure gradient over
the state, leading to dangerous wind chills through the Brooks
Range and a prolonged high wind event along the West Coast and
Bering. As the high settles in over the Arctic, expect a round of
strong Northeasterly winds to set up all along the Arctic Coast
Tuesday into Thursday potentially resulting in periods of
blizzard conditions. The NW Coast has already been dealing with
near blizzard conditions at times due to blowing snow, with the
threat continuing for several more days. Strong northerly flow
continues into Wednesday through the Bering as lows coming up into
the Gulf of Alaska further strengthen the pressure gradient. The
Cold airmass in place combined with high winds has prompted
widespread Cold Weather and Extreme Cold products for all of the
Brooks Range where wind chills may be as low as -75F at times.

For the Alaska Range, southerly flow sets up Tuesday into
Wednesday on the backside of the Polar low. At 700mb, a strong
60-70kt jet set up over the Alaska range, helping to kick out the
arctic airmass in place, but also increase winds through Alaska
range passes where winds may gust to 60 mph at times along the
summits. Watching Isabell Pass for the potential for at least
Advisory level winds. Confidence is lower at the moment if they
will reach 50 mph however still expect breezy conditions going
into Wednesday. Gusty conditions extend to Delta Junction as the
Tanana Valley jet briefly develops.

Snow: Focusing on the Alaska Range and Upper Tanana Valley for
accumulating snow through Tuesday as numerous winter weather
advisories and warnings have already been issued. Aloft, a quasi-
stationary mid and upper level boundary on the south side of the
Polar low remains in place and is the focus for snow shower
development today in this area as Pacific moisture. Flow aloft has
already turned southerly in the SE Interior allowing pacific
moisture to flow up and over the boundary. Satellite imagery clear
shows an E-W oriented band of clouds and snow from Palmer to
Northway and into the Yukon. Expect this band to pivot, becoming
more N-S oriented as the Polar upper low shifts westward; however
this will only increase southeasterly flow into the Alaska range
and Tanana Valley and keep snow in this region. A strong wave
currently in the Gulf of Alaska heads northward by tomorrow,
further helping to increase snow coverage and intensity in the
Alaska Range. A foot of snow or more is possible at higher
elevations of the Alaska range while 3 to 7 inches is possible in
valleys and within the Upper Tanana Valley. Downsloping on the
northside of the Alaska range should prevent areas further north
into the Interior and around Fairbanks from receiving much snow.
However, as energy pushes northwestward into the Eastern Interior
Tuesday and Wednesday, expect snow shower activity to overspread
the region, especially in areas that are not downsloped off the
Alaska Range.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
A fairly benign weather pattern sets up for the end of the week
and through the weekend. The polar low responsible for the arctic
air pushes off into Russia while weak upper ridging extends from
Northwest Canada into the Interior. The trajectory and orientation
of the ridging overhead should keep the numerous waves and lows in
the Gulf in southern and southwest Alaska. Easterly/southeasterly
flow persists at the surface into the weekend with well above
normal 850mb and surface temperature anomalies. Will still have to
watch the Arctic Coast and Bering Sea for strong winds through the
period resulting in blowing snow at times. The majority of the
interior is expected to remain dry and relatively mild under the
influence of weak ridging aloft.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Wind Warning for AKZ801.
     Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ809>812.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ849.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ850.
     Extreme Cold Warning for AKZ813.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ815.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ820-821-827.
     Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ803>805-808.
     Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ832.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ832.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ836.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ805.
     Extreme Cold Warning for AKZ806-807.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801>805-813>815-852-858-859-861.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-860.
     Gale Warning for PKZ810-857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-855.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-851-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ853.
&&

$$

CM