711
FXAK69 PAFG 311434
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
634 AM AKDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Updated synopsis, key messages, and extended discussion

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds on the Bering Sea coast with an offshore system will
continue today, then gradually weaken overnight tonight into
Monday. Rain with this system will gradually shift to the
northeast and overspread the area through midweek, dropping over
half an inch over most areas from the West Coast to the Central
Interior, with lighter totals in the Eastern Interior and eastern
North Slope. Later this morning into the afternoon, south winds
will pick up across the Brooks Range and North Slope, while south
gap winds start to blow through the Alaska Range passes. Warmer
weather is likely across both the North Slope and Eastern
Interior for the first half of this week, with the warmest temps
likely in the Upper Tanana Valley.

&&

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Light rain showers should mostly end across the Eastern Interior
  by this afternoon, with additional light rain moving into the
  Central Interior by this evening.

- Warmer weather in the 60s and 70s is expected this week in the
  Eastern Interior, especially near the border. Showery weather
  will keep it cooler in the Central Interior.

- Gusty winds will blow through Alaska Range passes at around 30
  to 50 mph from this afternoon through Tuesday morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- An ongoing coastal system over the Bering Sea will continue to
  bring rain and showers to Western Alaska through Tuesday night.
  Additional totals through Wednesday morning will widely range
  from 0.5 to 1", with higher totals in elevated areas.

- Gusty south winds as high as 35 to 40 mph will be possible at
  times today along the Bering Sea coast before gradually
  diminishing overnight and Monday.

- Coastal water levels on the Bering Sea will be higher than
  normal but are not expected to cause any flooding concerns.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Warmer weather with south flow is expected through midweek, with
  highs rising widely into the 50s. The warmest temperatures are
  likely on Monday, when the eastern North Slope will see low 60s.

- South to southeast winds up to about 20 mph are likely across
  most of the North Slope from late this morning through Monday
  morning, turning to the southwest as a low moves northeast.

- Showery weather the next few days, with totals through midweek
  up to several tenths of an inch on the Western Arctic Coast and
  northern slopes of the Central Brooks Range, and over an inch
  in the Western Brooks Range.

&&

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
To start out the extended time frame, troughing will be in place
across the northern Bering Sea, with some moderate ridging
extending into the southeastern mainland from over Canada and the
North Pacific. A system over the AK Peninsula / Bristol Bay area
will shift to the north or northeast, which will spread areas of
rain across the Interior. This rain will move across Northern
Alaska from southwest to northeast and should have largely moved
out of the state by late Friday night, with the potential for
another system moving into the Bering Sea over the weekend, which
could yield even more rain and gusty winds for southwestern and
western parts of the area. Otherwise, generally warm weather is
likely across the Eastern Interior, with highs in the 60s and 70s.
The warmest day as of right now appears to be Thursday, when the
axis of the ridge is oriented toward the southeastern mainland.
Cooler highs in the 50s are favored across Western Alaska and the
40s on the North Slope.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 PM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025/

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...

A high pressure ridge is shifting east across most of Northern
Alaska this afternoon with light winds and partly to mostly cloudy
skies and seasonably chilly temperatures. However, southerly flow is
returning to the West Coast ahead of a broad area of low pressure
over the Bering Sea. A broad shield of clouds and rain spread
northeast across the YK Delta and Seward today associated with the
systems warm front. This front continues lifting north and east
across our area tonight into Monday bringing mainly light rain.
Increasing moisture within an increasingly amplified pattern allows
for persist light to occasionally moderate rainfall, mainly across
the West Coast and western interior where many locations pick up
0.5" to 1.25" of rainfall by Tuesday afternoon. High elevation
locations may receive up to 2" of rainfall. There may be a dry slot
Monday night into Tuesday ahead of the primary low pressure finally
moving inland late on Tuesday. Farther east, southerly Chinook flow
scours out most of the moisture for the central and eastern Interior
and also allows for a warming trend with valley locations warming
into the 60s and 70s each day through the middle of next week.

FIRE WEATHER...

The Upper Tanana Valley remains relatively dry with warmer and drier
conditions than the rest of northern Alaska. Temperatures warm back
into the upper 60s to low 70s with min RHs perhaps dipping into the
upper 20%s. There aren`t many chances for rain, but winds remain
light away from Isabel Pass where southerly wind gusts increase into
the 30-50 mph range for Sunday through Monday night.

HYDROLOGY...

A variety of flood products remain in effect due to flooding already
occurring and an incoming wave of rainfall tonight through at least
Tuesday. Rainfall amounts are expected to be lighter than what was
observed over the past week. However, adding more water to a system
that is already flooding will slow improvement and may result in
another period of rising water levels by Tuesday or Wednesday.

Recent heavy rainfall results in elevated water levels persisting
into the weekend. Keep up to date with all hydro needs at
weather.gov/afg and weather.gov/aprfc.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...

Persistent southerly winds ahead of the next Bering Sea storm
results in water levels of 2-4 ft above normal high tides continuing
through Tuesday when the low pressure finally moves inland. A
longer southwesterly fetch on Tuesday may result in high surf
conditions.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ813-814-819-828-831.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801>807-809>811-816-817-850>855-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ859.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ860.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

DS