213
FXAK69 PAFG 010043
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
343 PM AKST Wed Dec 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and dry conditions will continue across much of Northern
Alaska through the weekend. Gusty winds and light snow will
continue to lead to low visibility across the Eastern North
Slope/Arctic Coast and Central Brooks Range through Thursday. Snow
and gusty winds will return to the Y-K Delta and St. Lawrence
Island tonight into Thursday, leading to areas of low visibility
at times. Generally clear and calm conditions across the Interior
will continue to promote very cold conditions with areas of ice
fog through the weekend. Coldest areas are expected to bottom out
around 50 to 60 below zero. Looking ahead, there is a possible
warmup early next week as a low pressure system looks to bring a
warmer and wetter airmass towards Alaska.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Persistent cold weather in the Interior remains with
  temperatures well below normal through the weekend.

- Most cloud cover moves northeast later this week, leaving much
  of the Interior clear and calm as isolated snow showers along
  the Alcan Border dissipate.

- Widespread temperatures in the 30s/40s below zero or colder will
  continue with possible 50s/60s and below zero in the coldest
  spots later this week.

- A long term Cold Weather Advisory has been issued through the
  weekend for the Central/Eastern Interior. Areas of ice fog are
  ongoing in Fairbanks and are expected to expand in coverage
  heading through the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Snow and gusty winds will return to the Y-K Delta and St.
  Lawrence Island tonight into Thursday, leading to low visibility
  at times. Snow accumulations in the Y-K Delta of around 1-2"
  with 2-5" at St. Lawrence Island with wind gusts up to 40 mph
  possible.

- Widespread temperatures in the 20s/30s below zero are expected
  to continue to build in with 40s/50s below zero in the coldest
  spots, trending colder later this week.

- A long term Cold Weather Advisory has been issued through the
  weekend for portions of the Western Interior where temperatures
  as cold as 55 below zero are expected.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Gusty winds and light snow will continue to lead to low
  visibility across the Eastern North Slope/Arctic Coast and
  Central Brooks Range through Thursday, diminishing west to east.
  Light additional snow accumulations and wind gusts up to 40 mph
  expected.

- A colder and drier airmass will build in Thursday into Friday
  and remain in place through early next week, supporting
  widespread temperatures in the 20s/30s below zero with 40s/50s
  below zero in the coldest spots.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Friday Night.

Afternoon satellite imagery shows broad surface high pressure
prevailing across much of Northern Alaska, as a low pressure
system tracks east along the Arctic Coast with snow and gusty
winds and another system moves northeast in the Bering Sea with
another round of snow and gusty winds. Surface high pressure and
broad upper-level troughing is continuing to allow for a very
cold, Arctic airmass to remain in place overhead, supporting
widespread well below normal temperatures through the weekend.
Colder areas will bottom out around 30-50 below zero with coldest
areas reaching down towards the 60s below zero across the
Interior. Ice fog has also developed in the Fairbanks area and is
expected to continue through the weekend and expand in coverage as
cold and dry conditions prevail.

The first system moving east along the Arctic Coast continues to
bring gusty winds and snow to the Eastern Arctic Coast south
through the Central Brooks Range where gusts up to 45 mph and 1/4
mile visibility has been reported. These conditions are expected
to continue through Thursday, improving west to east. That second
system working northeast through the Bering Sea will send a front
into the Y-K Delta and St. Lawrence Island tonight through
Thursday, with snow and wind gusts up to around 40 mph expected.
Snow will struggle to make it towards the Seward Peninsula which
is where cold and dry conditions are expected to continue.

The biggest changes to our hazards today have been an expansion
of the long fuse Cold Weather Advisory across the Interior to
capture temperatures in the 50s and 60s below zero across much of
the Interior valleys. Any wind will lead to much colder wind
chills. Light winds will continue to create areas of ice fog. A
Winter Weather Advisory has also been issued for St. Lawrence
Island, with the continuation of Winter Weather Advisories and
Blizzard Warnings for the Eastern North Slope.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Saturday through next Wednesday.

Cold conditions continue at the start of the extended forecast
period and through the weekend. The best chance for a warmup in
the current forecast comes as a stronger low enters the Western
Bering Sea. There is still some uncertainty in the strength and
position of this low but even the weaker estimates would likely be
strong enough to break down what remains of the Bering Sea ridge,
allowing some warmer, wetter, more southerly air to reach into
Northern Alaska Monday into Wednesday. As with most ridge
breakdown events forecast confidence is not very high. Models have
difficulties accurately timing ridge breakdown, especially in
regions with sparse observations like Alaska, but much of that
uncertainty will be in regards to timing and distribution of
potential snowfall. A warmup is likely for the region when this
low breaks down the ridge.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-808-809.
     Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ838>845.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-817-851-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
     Gale Warning for PKZ861.
&&

$$

.SYNOPSIS.......MacKay
.KEY MESSAGES...MacKay
.SHORT TERM.....MacKay
.LONG TERM......Stokes