823
FXAK69 PAFG 082136
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
136 PM AKDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
The weekend is getting started on a cloudy and slightly cooler
note as one system prepares to exit off the eastern Arctic
coastline while another drops south along the west coast of
ALaska. More rain will be possible for the west coast and western
Interior this weekend as the western system heads through the
Bering. Elsewhere, mainly dry and warming conditions will take
shape Sunday into next week. Mainly quiet conditions should
prevail through the week with summer-like temps returning. In
addition, a few late week thunderstorms may pop up as well, but
should remain isolated in nature.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Clouds look to linger across much of the Interior thanks to a
  lingering trough across the region. This will keep temps at or
  slightly below normal this weekend.

- A few scattered showers will be possible Monday into Tuesday as
  a quick moving disturbance drops south across the area. Any
  rainfall will be on the light side.

- Temps warm steadily throughout the week ahead with Interior
  highs climbing into the upper 70`s and low 80`s for the latter
  part of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Rain showers will continue tonight and into parts of Sunday
  along the west coast and across parts of the Western Interior.
  Additional rainfall will range from around one tenth of an inch
  to as much as half an inch closer to the coast.

- A quick warm up is on the way early next week as high pressure
  provides for a drier weather pattern. High temps will reach well
  into the 60`s along the coast with mid 70`s across the Western
  Interior.

- Spotty showers will redevelop from the YK Delta to the Seward
  Penn by midweek as additional disturbances try to move north
  from the southern Bering. Some isolated thunderstorms will be
  possible as well across portions of the Western Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Showers will linger across the eastern Brooks Range and near the
  eastern Arctic Coast this evening before high pressure from the
  Beaufort sets in Sunday.

- Coastal portions of the North Slope will continue to see low
  clouds and areas of fog through the weekend along with temps in
  the upper 30`s and lower 40`s.

- Temps will rebound along the North Slope next week with highs
  returning to the 50`s along the coast and 60`s further up the
  slope as mainly dry weather prevails.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery across the region shows plenty of clouds swirling
about two main centers of circulation. One is located across the
southeastern Beaufort while another swings south from Siberia into
the northern Bering. The low near the Eastern Arctic coast has
been the primary player this past week and will likely stick
around a while longer, but most of the associated precipitation
from this feature is, or will be winding down shortly. Meanwhile
the low tracking south through the Bering will keep bands of
steady showers ongoing for the west coast from the Seward Penn to
the YK Delta for tonight with activity ramping down Sunday as the
low weakens. Between these two upper lows there is a building
upper ridge over southcentral that will begin to shift slowly
north towards the Alaska Range by early next week.

Eventually this upper ridge will shift over much of the Interior
of Alaska, but that will be put on hold Monday and Tuesday as
another shortwave will track from the southern Beaufort into the
central and eastern Interior as it pivots around the stalled upper
circulation in the eastern Beaufort. While this feature will not
bring much in the way of precipitation, it will keep some clouds
overhead, slowing down the eventual warmup that is slated for next
week.

Further north areas along the Arctic coastline will continue to
deal with low clods and fog through the weekend as a building
surface high slowly sets in, resulting in onshore flow from
Deadhorse eastwards. Here, temps stay seasonally cool through
tomorrow, but conditions should improve early next week as the
high exerts more of an influence on the North Slope.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A pair of upper-level lows continue to spin over the Bering and
Beaufort Sea. These will help drive most of the weather for the
remainder of Saturday brining isolated showers across the Interior
and max temperatures in the upper 60s. By Sunday, A NW-SE oriented
ridge will begin building in over the Kuskokwim Valley. This will
push the Bering low SW towards the Aleutians, allowing for warmer
and drier conditions to return across the state. With this, the
warmest temperatures on Sunday are expected to be over upper
Kuskokwim Valley and lower Tanana Valley with highs around 75
degrees.

By the start of next week, another area of high pressure will build
over the Chukchi and merge with the area of high pressure to the
south. This will result in northerly flow aloft across much of the
North Slope. A shortwave will be embedded within this flow and move
south along the eastern portion of the state throughout the day on
Monday. Not much is expected in regards to wind from this system
other than diurnally driven winds which could gust to around 10 to
15 mph at peak heating. There will also be a few isolated showers
embedded within the flow, however not much is expected in regards to
accumulation. Looking back to the west, the merged area of high
pressure will set up over Western Alaska, allowing for the warming
and drying trend to continue across the Central and Western Interior.

Another low will begin to move east out of northern Siberia into the
Chukchi around Tuesday. This will help push the low that has been
stagnant over Eastern Brooks Range further NE into the Beaufort and
allow for the ridge over Western Alaksa to shift east. This will
allow for the high temperatures, around 80 degrees, to spread across
the remainder of the Interior by Wednesday afternoon. By the mid to
late week, models continue to show good agreement in holding this
ridge over majority of the state. This could prolong the warmer
temperatures through the start of next weekend and allow minimum RH
values below 30 percent to return to portions of the Eastern
Interior.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
For Tuesday through Friday.
At the start of the extended period, there are four main features to
be aware of. The first is a lingering low over far northeastern
Alaska, the second is a weak low pressure system moving south from
Siberia, the third is a lingering low over the western Gulf of
Alaska, and the fourth is a building ridge over southeastern Alaska.
While quite messy and disorganized, this set up will yield fairly
benign and pleasant weather for much of Northern Alaska early next
week. The pattern starts to become a bit more fixed in place once
the low from Siberia tracks far enough south through the Bering Sea
to merge with the low sitting just south of the Aleutians Islands.
As this occurs, the newly formed conglomerate low drifts slightly
north towards the southern Bering Sea, allowing for the ridge axis
over the Alaskan Panhandle to expand farther northwest over the
state. With this, we expect to see southeasterly flow bring a few
light isolated to scattered showers over portions of the Western
Interior, while the eastern half of the state remains warm and dry.
Temperatures within the Central/Eastern Interior may reach or exceed
80F once again for the first time since earlier this summer. We will
continue to monitor the strength and location of the ridge and low
over the next few days, but overall impacts should remain low.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS............Laney
KEY MESSAGES........Laney
FORECAST ANALYSIS...Laney
FIRE WEATHER........Twombly
EXTENDED............Santiago