798
FXAK69 PAFG 291418
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
618 AM AKDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A departing front across the central/eastern Interior north to
the Arctic Coast will continue to shift east today with
scattered rain and high elevation snow showers, as breezy winds
and drier conditions build in out of the west. Our next system
will be tracking southeast out of the Chukchi Sea tonight into
Sunday and Monday with another round of rain, snow, breezy
winds, and cooler temperatures. While conditions will trend
drier midweek across the Interior under the increasing influence
of high pressure, a series of shortwave troughs working over
Western Alaska and the North Slope will help keep rain/snow
chances around throughout the week. Looking ahead, a large low
pressure system will enter the Bering Sea on Wednesday, tracking
northeast towards western Alaska Thursday into Friday. Details
on the exact track, strength, and impacts of this system will
come into focus over the coming days.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Rain and high elevation snow showers will continue to track
  east today, as breezy winds, dry conditions, and clearer skies
  build in out of the west. Additional rainfall amounts through
  tonight will be around a T-0.25" with highest totals east of
  Fairbanks.

- Breezy west/southwest winds are expected across much of the
  Interior today, with gusts peaking around 25-35 mph for most
  locations.

- Following a brief period of drier weather today into tonight
  spreading west to east, another round of rain and high
  elevation snow will move across the Interior Sunday into
  Monday. Breezy winds will also accompany this system, with
  gusts peaking around 20-40 mph, strongest across higher
  elevations and the Tanana Valley.

- Rainfall accumulations Sunday into Monday are expected to be
  around 0.10-0.50", locally higher in the Alaska Range and
  Middle Tanana Valley around Delta Junction of 0.50-1.00". Snow
  levels around 3-4,000 feet will support snow across higher
  elevations of the Interior, with heaviest totals in the Alaska
  Range.

- Highs are expected to remain in the 40s and 50s through early
  next week, with overnight lows in the 30s to low 40s.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Dry weather is expected today with a mix of sun and clouds for
  most of the day, ahead of another low moving southeast from
  the Chukchi Sea later today into tonight and Sunday. This
  system will bring another round of rain, high elevation snow,
  and breezy winds through Monday.

- Rainfall accumulations tonight through Monday are expected to
  be around 0.10-0.50", with dry conditions favored out at St.
  Lawrence Island. Snow levels around 1-2,000 feet will support
  light snow across higher elevations of the Seward Peninsula,
  Western Interior, and Brooks Range.

- Winds will pick up out ahead of the next low, with gusts of
  around 20-30 mph across the West Coast out of the southwest.
  Winds will increase on Sunday, shifting to the northwest with
  gusts up to around 25-45 mph.

- Highs are expected to be warmest today in the 50s to low 60s,
  dropping to the the 40s/50s early next week, with overnight
  lows in the 30s and 40s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Rain and high elevation snow across the eastern North Slope
  and Brooks Range will continue to shift east today, with
  pockets of a wintry mix expected at times. Additional snow
  amounts will remain focused in the Brooks Range around a T-2".

- Winds will remain strongest today across the eastern Arctic
  Coast around Kaktovik, western Arctic Coast around Point Hope,
  and at Atigun Pass with gusts peaking around 30-40 mph.

- Following a brief period of drier weather today into tonight
  spreading west to east, another round of rain and high
  elevation snow will move across far Northern Alaska tonight
  into Sunday and Monday as a system tracks southeast from the
  Chukchi Sea.

- Rainfall accumulations tonight through Monday are expected to
  be around 0.10-0.50" (highest farther west), with drier
  conditions expected around Deadhorse to Kaktovik with a
  T-0.10". Snow levels around 1-2,000 feet will support light
  snow across higher elevations of the Brooks Range, with around
  a T-2" expected.

- An uptick in winds will accompany this system, with gusts
  peaking around 15-30 mph, strongest across the Arctic Coast
  and higher elevations of the Brooks Range.

- High temperatures today will be warmest farther west in the
  50s to around 60, as locations farther east stay in the
  30s/40s. That warmer airmass will shift east Sunday as highs
  stabilize starting Monday in the 30s/40s. Overnight lows will
  be in the 30s/40s, locally cooler in the Brooks Range in the
  20s/30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday Night.
The main concern through the short term will be the transition
from the departing Bering Sea low to the next system dropping
southeast from Siberia and the Chukchi Sea. The current system
will continue to pull away Saturday, allowing a brief period of
more scattered precipitation coverage and partial clearing
before the next low moves into northwest Alaska Sunday and then
tracks southeast across the Interior Sunday night into Monday.
This second system will bring another round of widespread
precipitation, breezy winds, and a notably cooler airmass to
Northern Alaska.

Behind the departing low, a broad trough/upper low will shift
east across the state Saturday while drier air works eastward
from western Alaska. This will result in precipitation becoming
increasingly showery and scattered through Saturday, with the
greatest coverage across the Brooks Range and northern/eastern
Interior as the trough axis moves through. A period of
relatively drier weather is expected Saturday night,
particularly across the western and central Interior, although
lingering showers will remain possible near the Brooks Range and
Alaska Range. Low-level flow will turn increasingly west to
northwest behind the departing low, with gusty winds developing
as the pressure gradient tightens between the departing low and
building high pressure to the west. Gusts of 25-35 mph are
expected across portions of the Tanana Valley as winds shift
northwest. Despite the temporary influx of drier air, cool
temperatures and residual cloud cover are expected to remain.

Attention then turns to the 995 mb low that will drop southeast
from Siberia across the Chukchi Sea late Saturday into Sunday.
Increasing moisture ahead of the system, combined with large-
scale ascent associated with the approaching upper-level low,
will spread precipitation back into western and northern Alaska
Sunday. Precipitation will initially favor the West Coast,
western Interior, and Brooks Range before expanding eastward
into the central and eastern Interior Sunday afternoon into the
evening. Current guidance supports generally 0.10-0.50 inches of
rain across much of northern Alaska Sunday into Monday, with
locally higher amounts around 0.50- 1.00 inches favored along
the Alaska Range where northwest flow will enhance orographic
precipitation. The upper Tanana Valley, however, should remain
comparatively drier given the orientation of the moisture plume.

As the low continues southeast across western and central
Alaska Sunday night, the associated trough will deepen and
temperatures will fall as colder air wraps southward behind the
system. Rain will remain widespread through Monday, with periods
of moderate precipitation possible where the surface low and
midlevel trough provide stronger forcing. Across the Brooks
Range, precipitation will gradually transition from rain to a
rain/snow mix and then primarily snow at higher elevations
Sunday night into Monday as colder air filters southward. Snow
levels will lower through the period, with snow becoming
increasingly likely at pass level and higher terrain. Current
guidance supports generally a trace to 2 inches of snow across
the Brooks Range, with the highest amounts favored near the
summits. Snowfall will also increase across the higher
elevations of the Alaska Range though snow accumulations are
expected to remain confined to higher terrain and not
significantly impact the passes. Lower elevations will remain
primarily rain or a rain/snow mix with little accumulation
expected. The pressure gradient surrounding the low will also
produce another period of breezy conditions Sunday into Monday,
with the strongest winds likely along the Western and Arctic
Coasts and in favored terrain. Coastal wind gusts around 30-45
mph remain possible as the low moves southeast, while inland
winds will generally be lighter.

By Monday night, the low will continue to move away while
colder air settles across northern Alaska. Cloud cover and
lingering precipitation will temper the magnitude of the
temperature drop, but temperatures will fall into the mid to
upper 30s across much of the Interior, with lower temperatures
possible in favored valleys and higher elevations. Ensemble
guidance indicates 850 mb temperatures falling to roughly 0 to
-4C with this system. Any breaks in the cloud cover Monday night
could therefore result in locally colder temperatures than
currently forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Saturday.
Following a departing low now centered in the Gulf of Alaska on
Tuesday, the upper level pattern will then become dominated by
upper level ridging over southwest Alaska/eastern Aleutians and
upper level troughing over the High Arctic between 70N and 80N.
Moisture working overtop this ridge to our southwest will
support a series of shortwaves lifting north towards the Y-K
Delta with scattered rain showers, while the H5 low over the
High Arctic will do the same with scattered rain and snow
showers across the North Slope and Brooks Range. The Interior
will remain in between these features, as conditions trend
warmer and drier and precipitation chances become increasingly
isolated.

By Wednesday, that ridge to our south will shift east, allowing
for a large area of low pressure to lift northeast and enter
the southern Bering Sea. The surface low is expected to
strengthen late Wednesday into Thursday, as atmospheric river
moisture begins to lift north through the eastern Bering Sea
into southwest Alaska as winds ramp up along the West Coast. The
steering flow of what guides this low is the most uncertain at
this point, with the strength peaking currently at around 970 mb
in the Bering Sea. This steering flow will determine what track
the low center takes, with ensembles split on keeping it
situated farther west through the weekend versus a more
northeasterly track. Details on the exact track, strength, and
impacts of this system will come into focus over the coming
days, with the bigger trends centering around gusty winds across
western Alaska, moderate to heavy rain, and higher water levels
across the West Coast. Stay tuned.

&&

.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
Breezy southwest winds with gusts up to around 20-30 mph along
the West Coast today will shift to the west/northwest Sunday
into Monday and strengthen, with gusts up to around 25-40 mph
supporting onshore flow. Minor coastal impacts are expected,
with water levels for most communities reaching 1-2 feet above
the normal high tide. The Kotzebue Sound, Bering Strait, and
Interior Norton Sound are expected to see the highest water
level rises closer to 2 feet. Following this system, attention
then turns to a large low entering the Bering Sea on Wednesday,
tracking northeast towards western Alaska Thursday into Friday.
Details on the exact track, strength, and impacts of this system
will come into focus over the coming days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper level ridging will continue to shift east across the
Interior today, as remaining rain showers work towards the Alcan
Border with an additional T-0.25" of rain expected east of
Fairbanks. Elevated 925 mb winds today will lead to breezy
conditions, with gusts for most locations peaking out of the
W/SW around 25 to 35 mph. MinRHs this weekend will continue to
be driest in the Upper Tanana and Fortymile region around
40-50%. Our next system will work southeast from the Chukchi Sea
over the Interior Sunday into Monday, with widespread rain,
high elevation snow, breezy winds, and improving RH. Rain totals
Sunday into Monday are expected to be around 0.10- 0.50",
locally drier across the Tanana Flats where a T-0.10" is
expected. Snow levels will drop to around 3-4000 feet,
supporting snow across our highest elevations. Winds are
expected to peak Monday into Monday night, with gusts to around
20-40 mph out of the W/NW expected, strongest in the Alaska
Range and Tanana Valley. Following a cooler and wetter start to
next week, conditions will trend warmer and drier towards
midweek as MinRHs starting Tuesday and Wednesday drop to around
40-50% across the Upper Tanana and Fortymile region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Following around 1 to 2 inches of rain across much of the West
Coast and Western Interior over the past two days, local areas
rivers and streams have trended higher but no flooding is
expected. Additional rainfall is expected (generally in the
0.10-0.50" range) late Saturday through Monday as the next
system moves through the area from the northwest.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for
     AKZ809.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT
     Sunday for PKZ801-803.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Sunday for
     PKZ804>807-817-852-854.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM AKDT
     this evening for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT
     Sunday for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM AKDT
     this evening for PKZ851.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......MacKay
KEY MESSAGES...MacKay
SHORT TERM.....Cruz
LONG TERM......MacKay
COASTAL........MacKay
FIRE WEATHER...MacKay
HYDROLOGY......MacKay