712
FXAK69 PAFG 252308
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
308 PM AKDT Fri Sep 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- High pressure overhead will continue to bring clearer skies, drier
conditions, & warmer temperatures through the weekend.

- Afternoon highs will climb to the mid 40s to upper 50s, as
overnight lows remain cooler, holding in the 20s and 30s with
locally colder spots in the teens.

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect through Saturday night for
strong southerly winds through the Alaska Range passes with  gusts
peaking at around 60 to 65 mph.

- Rain & high elevation snow chances will return to the Alaska Range
today through the weekend west of the Tok Cutoff. Isolated rain/snow
chances are expected to return to the rest of the Interior Monday
into Tuesday, as temperatures begin to trend cooler.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- As a strong low in the Bering Sea moves eastward over the weekend,
it will gradually weaken as the low center moves onshore around the
Bristol Bay and Kuskokwim Bay region late Saturday. This track will
support another round of scattered showers & continued breezy winds
across Southwest Alaska with isolated showers farther north.

- Highs will hold through the weekend in the 40s to mid 50s with
lows in the 30s/40s. Rain chances will expand early next week
farther east into the Western Interior, as temperatures begin to
trend cooler.

- Winds will shift to being out of the north on Sunday, with  gusts
around 30 to 45 mph continuing along the West Coast / Bering
Strait area through midweek next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- High pressure overhead will continue to bring clearer skies, dry
conditions, & warmer temperatures through the weekend with isolated
showers possible across the Western Arctic Coast & Western Brooks
Range today into Saturday.

- Winds will increase across the Arctic Coast Sunday into Monday,
with gusts to around 30 to 45 mph out of the north expected through
Tuesday.

- Rain/snow chances will lift northeast early next week to encompass
all of the North Slope and Brooks Range, as  temperatures begin to
trend cooler. Any snowfall accumulations to look to remain light.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...Through the weekend, a ridge of high pressure remains in
place over northern Alaska, which is keeping rather benign weather
across the area with drier conditions & clearer skies across a good
portion of the area, especially for the eastern Interior, while
southwestern portions of the region are experiencing some rain
showers & breezy conditions from an area of low pressure in the
southern Bering Sea, moving southeastward toward Bristol Bay & the
Gulf of Alaska through the weekend. Gusty southerly gap winds will
continue into Sunday with showery precipitation becoming more wintry
as you increase in elevation. As the low approaches Bristol Bay on
Saturday through Saturday night, rain showers increase in coverage
across southwestern portions of our AOR as easterly winds become a
bit breezier across the Interior as the east-to-west pressure
gradient becomes tighter. As we get into early next week & move
through mid-week, chances for wrap-around showers increase as
easterly shortwaves start to move-in, rotating around the
aforementioned area of low pressure, once it moves into & slowly
moves eastward through the northern Gulf of Alaska while weakening.
Model forecast temperatures aloft at 850mb show warm air advection
out of the south, which will keep SFC temperatures on the mild side
across the entirety of out AOR through the end of the weekend. The
big pattern shift arrives next week as widespread general trofing
settles in across all of northern alaska, which will give general
northwesterly flow, bringing in cold air advection, cooling off our
temperatures across the region to more seasonable values. Along our
coastal areas, winds really pick-up along with the enhanced gradient
associated with that trofing as it pushes in, especially for the
Bering Strait area.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday Night/...For the Bering Sea Coast
area: As of Friday afternoon, a ridge of high pressure is located
across eastern portions of the state with a 978mb low in the extreme
southeastern Bering Sea, moving toward Bristol Bay while
progressively weakening. The ridge is pushed out of the way by the
low as it pushes southeastward, moving into Bristol Bay & into
the north-central Gulf of Alaska through the weekend. This track
will keep general chances for rain showers continuing for
southwestern areas along with breezy conditions through the
weekend. Another ridge moving in from the west into the Bering
will work to scoot that low southeastward while the low
continues to weaken.

For the Interior, Brooks Range, North Slope, & Arctic Coast:
Generally benign weather is expected to continue with drier
weather conditions, milder temperatures, & clearer skies as the
region remains under the influence of a ridge of high pressure
through the weekend. Model forecast temperatures aloft at 850mb
show warm air advection out of the south, which will keep SFC
temperatures on the mild side across the entirety of out AOR
through the end of the weekend. A Wind Advisory is in effect for
the Isabel & Windy Alaska Range passes into Sunday morning. This
is due to a tightened pressure gradient setting up between the
aforementioned low moving toward Bristol Bay / the Kuskokwim
Delta & the ridge to the east. Frequent wind gusts look to reach
up to between 60 & 65 mph with the peak being during the
Saturday timeframe for Isabel Pass & overnight into early Sunday
for Windy Pass. This enhancement is due to a shortwave with an
associated vort-max & mtn wave depicted in 500mb model output,
which will work to enhance the southerly winds aloft & help to
mix those winds down to the SFC. Across the interior, even at
lower elevations, it will also become a bit breezier/gustier as
that aforementioned pressure gradient tightens up as that low
approaches The Kuskokwim Delta / Bristol Bay area, especially
for Saturday through Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/...A general trofing pattern
will bring increased cloudiness, chances for showers, & colder,
more seasonable temperatures to all of northern Alaska for the
Long Term forecast period. With the general northwesterly flow,
cooler, more seasonable temperatures are expected as it
indicated by 850mb model temperature forecasts, showing solid
Cold Air Advection over our AOR. Additionally, through midweek,
for the eastern & central Interior, light showery activity is
expected from easterly shortwaves rotating counterclockwise
around the parent low located over the northern Gulf of Alaska,
bringing in increased moisture & enhanced lift via 500mb vort-
maxes moving overhead with these shortwave trofs. The cooler
temperatures in place will increase the likelihood of wintry
precipitation, especially for higher elevations & the north
slope for Monday night through mid-week. Lower elevations across
portions of the Interior may even see some wintry precipitation
mix in or nocturnal changeovers to snow as we approach midweek
as their overnight low temperatures fall to around or just below
the freezing mark. Any accumulations look to remain light. As
the aforementioned trofing moves southward, enhancing the
pressure gradient, winds look to gust up to around 45 kt for
Tuesday through mid-week for an area around the Bering Strait to
around St. Lawrence Island.


.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL.../Tonight through Next Week/...No
significant coastal flooding concerns are expected at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Precipitation chances are expected to remain near
zero for Fortymile Country & the Upper Tanana Valley through Sunday
night. High temperatures will continue to be on the mild side,
getting into the lower-50s with afternoon Minimum Relative Humidity
values getting as low as between 40 & 45%. There will be a general
moistening trend through the weekend with Minimum Relative Humidity
values being between 50 & 55% by Sunday afternoon. Winds will be
light & variable until they pick-up on Saturday out of the
southeast, gusting to between 15 & 20 mph. Broad trofing pushes the
ridge eastward as we move into next week through mid-week, bringing
in cooler temperatures, an appreciably more moist airmass, & chances
for rain shower activity moving in from the east from easterly
shortwaves rotating around a low hanging out in the northern Gulf of
Alaska.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...No appreciable hydrologic concerns are expected through
the forecast period at this time.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ847.
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ849.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ802-
     806-808-855.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT
     Saturday for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM AKDT Saturday for
     PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ852.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT
     Saturday for PKZ853.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Chambers
SYNOPSIS...Chambers
SHORT TERM...Chambers
LONG TERM...Chambers
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...Chambers
FIRE WEATHER...Chambers
HYDROLOGY...Chambers